ISSUE125 [REBORN FROM THE ASHES] by 豆腐店的86

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

好久没有在组里发帖了，这一段都在忙活考试，坚持一下，过了考试，马上回归G版·！！
125. "The past is no predictor of the future."

Outline
1.
Agree
2.
Misunderstandings that the past can predict the future
3.
The past only provide a rough idea on what is going to happen
4.
Compared with the past, it is the status quo that are being use to predict the future
5.
Conclusion



As asserted, the past cannot foretell what might happen in the future. However, lots of people hold their ideas against it （opposite assertion）. They usually ask themselves what people did in the past when facing a similar problem as they are, hoping to find a way out by coping the predecessors’ solution. Unfortunately, few of them achieve their expectation. Then why is this? Are the people using the past in a wrong way? Or maybe, it is because that the past only lies in the history.

When we were young, many of us were taught to learn a lesson from the past in order to help us do the right thing (improve the way of solving analogous problem) in the future, which contributes to a misunderstanding that the past may predict the future. I have to admit that we may be able to deduce what is going to happen in some simple cases. For example, if I failed in Calculus 101 last semester because of being addicted to PC games, I can be pretty sure that I will not pass in this semester since I did not make to (删除)get rid of endless games. However, if the issue includes much more factors and is conducted in a much larger scope, the deduction from the past to the future will then be no use and war is one of the examples. After 20 years’ of（删除） peace, WWII tear (tore) the world into pieces again. As time went by （纠结于这里要用 goes by 还是 went by.请教各位了）, in 1960s, people are in worried of the third world war since it has been another 20 years after the previous calamity. The past failed to tell the future this time.

Since the past cannot tell the future, what can it do? We all know that the past helps us know the world better but in the case of future telling, it can only provide a rough idea. Many economists (had) predicted an incoming economic crisis before it landed. Based on their expertise and the data collected from previous ones, they knew there was another going to strike. But how serious is it and when exactly would it happened? No one can be sure about them. These experts (had) smelled a rat in the recent financial market (which) just like what it was  in Asia in 1989, but all (what) they can tell the public is that they know something is going on and they were not sure how tragic the crisis would be until it landed in the U.S. Thus, it is only a contour of incoming things that the past can tell, not an exact prediction can it make.

Since the past draw a tendency of what is about to happen, I believe that, compared with the past, it is the status quo that is being used to predict the future. To put it in another way that the past along cannot tell the future. The process of making prediction is like this: people collect data and reference from the past and compare them with the recent status and therefore, after a series of statistical analysis, the foresight will be settled. People who falsely worried about the third world war used the past along to make prediction and leave the real situation aside while those who compared the two similar situations predicted that a cold war was around the corner.

Back to the questions I raised in the beginning. Apparently we have found our answer that the past does only lies in the history and it is no predictor to the future. Anyway, by using it properly, it can act like a frame of reference toward the status quo which, in fact, is the right thing that are being used to predict an incoming future.

hugeseaUID: 190158

写得非常不错，要是偏偏issue都能这样的话，你的AW完全没问题了

plukaUID: 2721764

As asserted, the past cannot foretell what might happen in the future. However, lots of people hold their ideas against it. They usually ask themselves what people did in the past when facing a similar problem as they are, hoping to find a way out by coping the predecessors’ solution. Unfortunately, few of them achieve their expectation. Then why is this? Are the people using the past in a wrong way? Or maybe, it is because that the past only lies in the history.（这句话没看懂）

When we were young, many of us were taught to learn a lesson from the past in order to help us do the right thing in the future, which contributes to a misunderstanding that the past may predict the future. I have to admit that we may be able to deduce what is going to happen in some simple cases. For example, if I failed in Calculus 101 last semester because of being addicted to PC games, I can be pretty sure that I will not pass in this semester since I did not make to（manage to?额，不太清楚这里的用法） get rid of endless games. However, if the issue includes much more factors and is conducted in a much larger scope, the deduction from the past to the future will then be no use and war is one of the examples. After 20 years’ of peace, WWII tear(torn) the world into pieces again. As time went by, in 1960s, people are(were) in worried of the third world war since it has been another 20 years after the previous calamity. The past failed to tell the future this time. （考试那个例子不错，很亲民。但是战争这个觉得有些奇怪。一开始指出的是当事件包括更多因素、在更大范围内展开的时候XXX，但后文仅仅简单说了一下1960年战争没有发生，打破了20年的轮回……额，我是有些郁闷了……轮回论本来就有悖常识么）

Since the past cannot tell the future, what can it do? We all know that the past help we know the world better but in the case of future telling, it can only provide a rough idea. Many economists predicted an incoming economic crisis before it landed. Based on their expertise and the data collected from previous ones, they knew there was another going to strike. But how serious is it and when exactly would it happened? No one can be sure about them. These experts smelled a rat（学习了） in the recent financial market just like what it was in Asia in 1989, but all they can tell the public is that they know something is going on and they were not sure how tragic the crisis would be until it landed in the U.S. Thus, it is only a contour of incoming things that the past can tell, not an exact prediction can it make.（例子很好，说清楚了）

Since the past draw a tendency of what is about to happen, I believe that, compared with the past, it is the status quo that is being used to predict the future. To put it in another way that the past along cannot tell the future. The process of making prediction is like this: people collect data and reference from the past and compare them with the recent status and therefore, after a series of statistical analysis, the foresight will be settled. People who falsely worried about the third world war used the past along to make prediction and leave the real situation aside while those who compared the two similar situations predicted that a Cold War was around the corner.（看到这里了解前面战争的例子了）

Back to the questions I raised in the beginning. Apparently we have found our answer that the past does only lies in the history and it is no predictor to the future. Anyway, by using it properly, it can act like a frame of reference toward the status quo which, in fact, is the right thing that are being used to predict an incoming future.
文章看下来很舒服，清晰易懂，赞！过去作为现在的参考，现在综合过去做预测，这个观点不错~！例子也很好理解，再赞~

plukaUID: 2721764

主要是思路很清晰，很好懂啊……这种感觉真难找，我总写得很沉重，sigh

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

2# hugesea

谢谢组长！ 这段时间备考，都没好好投入，在群里讨论一下有一下没有的，向组长表示歉意，23号考试结束，之后定会全力以赴！

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

4# pluka
谢谢PLUKA

那句话我是想说：还是过去是真的只是停留在历史的昨天。可能为了追求写得生动而弄得词不达意~~`

smell a rat是口语化的表达，说感觉到有异样，我不知道写作里能不能用~~`

再次感谢，一道加油哦！^^

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

回头又读了一遍，感觉自己写文章的时候思维有点乱跳，写的话有的地方逻辑衔接性不强，所以弄得有些语句读者读不懂，下次习作要注意~~~~

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

做了小修改，请大家接着拍~~~

emteddybearUID: 2699606

写得很好啊，不好意思 在我的习作里借用了你的一句话 the past only lies in the history，先斩后奏啦，你不会介意吧，(*^__^*) 嘻嘻……

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

9# emteddybear

不会不会~~那是你看得起啊····

不过前面PLUKA提到的关于这句话的意思，我还没有得到解答，所以能不能这样用，我也不是特别确定，口语中这样用木有问题，听得懂，写作中，要是前后结构配不上，就用一出问题····

相互交流啦····

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

修改了一下~~ 希望能得到跟多人的拍砖~~~
感觉自己词汇还要丰富，句式还要加强练习···
但是又不知道到底要怎们弄
背单词都是些被动词汇 根本不能再写作中使用····
想通过改作文修改句式和语汇表达，但是自己又改不出什么··· 总觉得想不出更好的表达方式
希望听听大家的意见····

ieyangj08UID: 2743219

括号里的修改的确比以前的表达好多了
准备关机背单词了，只试着修改了最后两段的首句，不知道对否，呵呵
Since the past draw a tendency of what is about to happen,
Since history draws a picture of tomorrow
Back to the questions I raised in the beginning.
Back to the original question

豆腐店的86UID: 2512956

括号里的修改的确比以前的表达好多了
准备关机背单词了，只试着修改了最后两段的首句，不知道对否，呵呵
Since the past draw a tendency of what is about to happen,
Since history draws a picture of tomorr ...
ieyangj08 发表于 2010-1-27 20:26

谢谢 简洁了很多·~~
concise !!!

prettywraithUID: 197049

豆腐的125
As asserted, the past cannot foretell what might happen in the future. However, lots of people hold their ideas against it （opposite assertion）. They usually ask themselves what people did in the past when facing a similar problem as they are, hoping to find a way out by coping the predecessors’ solution. Unfortunately, few of them achieve their expectation. Then why is this? Are the people using the past in a wrong way? Or maybe, it is because that the past only lies in the history.

When we were young, many of us were taught to learn a lesson from the past in order to help us do the right thing (improve the way of solving analogous problem) in the future, which contributes to a misunderstanding that the past may predict the future. I have to admit that we may be able to deduce what is going to happen in some simple cases. For example, if I failed in Calculus 101 last semester because of being addicted to PC games, I can be pretty sure that I will not pass in this semester since I did not make to (删除)get rid of endless games. （最好不要用自己来举例字，这样显得不够学术，不过举得恰当也无所谓）However, if the issue includes much more factors and is conducted in a much larger scope, the deduction from the past to the future will then be no use and war is one of the examples. After 20 years’ of（删除） peace, WWII （尽量不要用简写，或者后面注释一些全称）tear (tore) the world into pieces again. As time went by （纠结于这里要用 goes by 还是 went by.请教各位了）（我觉得用goes by，网上有类似用法）, in 1960s, people are in worried of the third world war since it has been another 20 years after the previous calamity. The past failed to tell the future this time.

Since the past cannot tell the future, what can it do? We all know that the past helps us know the world better but in the case of（这里是不是有点表达不清？）
future telling, it can only provide a rough idea. Many economists (had) predicted an incoming economic crisis before it landed. Based on their expertise and the data collected from previous ones, they knew there was another going to strike. But how serious is it and when exactly would it happened? No one can be sure about them. These experts (had) smelled a rat in the recent financial market (which) just like what it was  in Asia in 1989, but all (what) they can tell the public is that they know something is going on and they were not sure how tragic the crisis would be until it landed in the U.S. Thus, it is only a contour of incoming things that the past can tell, not an exact prediction can it make.

Since the past draw a tendency of what is about to happen, I believe that, compared with the past, it is the status quo that is being used to predict the future. To put it in another way that the past along cannot tell the future. The process of making prediction is like this: people collect data and reference from the past and compare them with the recent status and therefore, after a series of statistical analysis, the foresight will be settled. People who falsely worried about the third world war used the past along to make prediction and leave the real situation aside while those who compared the two similar situations predicted that a cold war was around the corner.（你开始说不认为过去可以预测未来，这里又说有人预测到冷战是不是不太合适？）

Back to the questions I raised in the beginning. Apparently we have found our answer that the past does only lies in the history and it is no predictor to the future. Anyway, by using it properly, it can act like a frame of reference toward the status quo which, in fact, is the right thing that are （is）being used to predict an incoming future.