【ineffable】第6次作业-Argu20_by Karen

karen_06UID: 2728072

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 391
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-1-22 16:00:02



A Letter to Balmer Island Gazette

The author in the letter suggests town council of Balmer Island to limit the mopeds number by decreasing moped and bicycle rent to reduce the moped and pedestrian accidents. However, this suggestion is just according to the measure of neighbor city and the author makes several fallacies during the reasoning process. The flaws in the letter are as follows.


First, the suggestion to decreasing the mopeds and bicycles is to reduce the accidents. And the worry about accident comes from the increased population. But the author just says that the polution increases during the summer months, providing no other detailed information, such as whether these are new babies in the island. From the name of Balmer Island, we can infer that it is a beautiful palce suitable for summer vocation. Maybe these increased people are right for scenic visit here. In this case, worry about accidents is not necessary as the population blast is transient phenomenon.

Second, the author's advice is based on the actions of Torseau Island. However, the author fails to present the similarity between Balmer and Torseau. Maybe the number of mopeds and bicycles in Torseau is very huge, and the road is vey narrow or not flat, thus causes a lot of accidents. While Balmer has less mopeds and bicycles, it also owns advanced highway system, and broad road. Accident here is vey nitle and people do not worry about this. Therefore, the limiting action may works in Torseau, but may has no effects with Balmer.

Besides, even it is necessary to limit the number of mopeds and bicycles, the author does not explain why to decrease 50 per day to 30, and why reduce each of the six rental companies. Suppose some rental companies have less than 30 rent mark one day, does it mean that the company should be closed? Before the limiting, the author should tell us tha scale of each rent company. Moreover, the influence from 50 per day to 30 is not known. It is better to make some research or experiment first.

In addition, the author advises to limit mopeds and bicycles only in the summer, not mentioning other seasons, which is not well thought. Winter in island usually has heavy snow which makes the road difficult to ride, causing more accidents than in summer. The author does not show information of winter weather and measures in Balmer Island.

Furthermore, there are multiply causes of accident in a city, not only because of the number of mopeds and bicycles. For example, too many cars rush to the road at the same time, or basic road infrastructure is poor, people do not obey traffic rules and dirviers always drink a lot of wine before driving. The author should decide which one is the major reason to accidents before giving advice, and then make respondent conclusion.

In conclusion, the suggestion in the argument is based on an example of other city, and the author commits hasty analysis and unconvincing reasoning. To make it more reasonable, the author should make a further research on the status and causes of accidents in Balmer, and then make detailed comparison between Balmer and Torseau.