reborn issue 125

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125. "The past is no predictor of the future."
1没有人可以预知未来
2但是通过过去的事情可以推测未来
3历史是不可能重演的，但历史却有着惊人的相似性
4历史学家的研究是很有意义的
What is the mysterious relationship between the past and the future in your mind? Why are so many historical fans still devoting all their life in the research of history? And surely, they are not the group of people, who think that the past is no predictor of the future.
Admittedly, nobody get the special and amazing ability to predict the future. If not, than the world will change largely. For instance, we can withdraw people from Haiti before the earthquake to avoid the big tragedy which already causes the death in an amount of more than 100,000. So, I concede that the past is no predictor of future is true. The so-call the future predict theory is only a form of superstitious belief without any scientific basis.
Nevertheless on one hand, the history or experience can help us predict future in some extent. For example, from the long era in the past human life, we and even the child get to know that many stars hung in the sky can predict a sunshine day of tomorrow. This is a common way people use in their daily life to predict future. So, by considering transforming many history issues into common knowledge can help people predict some valuable future things. A poor past experience can warn us to avoid make such mistakes and change the attitude of handling things; a wonderful history will also provide us with the abundant resource to face the problems in the future.
On the second hand it is true that the history will never replay in future, but our history always owns the amazing similar things. For example, in the past, a man may dominate a country firstly by hard work and terrible wars and then become the king, but later they may never improve themselves any more and even be addicted with beautiful ladies, gambling and money, thus the country will go down to the extinction. We can also find the similar poor things happened in modern times. From the sex scandal of Clinton in the West Country to the big corrupt officials in the East Country, it is clear to see the similarity between the past and the future. As to this point, we can certainly take examples from the history and warn the people in modern and future time, thus, the behavior and the standard of social conduct may have a turn over change.
On the other hand, there are still many history researchers existing in our society. They keep on studying local history and world history to try to discover something happened in the past and even more importantly to find good measures that can be taken in modern life. Those researches are quite meaningful and helpful to our society.
After all, I agree with the speaker that the past is no predictor of the future literally. It seems to be an absurd thing to tell the future in this scientifically knowledge based society. But though the specific research of history by the experts, we can certainly make full use of the similarity between history and future to absorb the plenty resource and then handle well in the future.
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