考前冲刺～～argument53～求拍～！

ginorUID: 2610959

题目：ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
字数：419          用时：00:45:0          日期：2010-1-30 10:54:51  

In this argument, the author draws an assumption that mothers who high production of melatonin would lend their infants showed mild distress. However, I find that several important factors which the author fails to take into account would lead to the conclusion is unwarranted.
First of all, the evidence cites to support the argument does not reliable as it stands ,result of 25 infants are not a large sample which enough to represent to the other infants have conceived in early autumn in the whole. In addition, without more information about those infants' specific conditions, such as age and gender, then some possible reasons which might responsibility for their mild distress would be included. For instance, girls would always show mild distress than boys when facing to unfamiliar things and circumstances. For lacking information about the group of infants' gender constitute of , it is possible vast majority of them are girls. For that matter, the conclusion drew by the study is open to doubt.

Another problem rests on there is no evidence cites in the argument suggests that those mothers who high production of melatonin would effect on their infants. Perhaps, the increase in melatonin just influence on the mothers themselves and irrelevant to their infants. Even assuming that increase in melatonin would effect on their infants, however, the author fails to establish the casual relationship between melatonin and the infants' performance of mild distress. Without providing more evidence concerning about whether melatonin would lead to infants response mild distress, this concluson cannot make me convinced to.

Last but not least, the conclusion illustrated by another study cites in the argument also unwarranted in several aspects. On the one hand, those teenagers who considerate their performance of distress as shyness were identified by themselves, which without any scientific evidence to demonstrate their identifications are truth instead of their assumption. On the other hand, even assuming that those sighs of distress related to shyness, the author neglects to take into account to one or more possible reasons would cause shyness as well. We all known that living environment and family phenomenon plays important roles in a child's growing. Growing in different family would form child's character quite different. In brief, those teenagers might raise shyness in their later life result from their growing environment .Either scenario, if true, would seriously weaken the author's claim.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend cogent support to what the author maintains. To strengthen this argument, the author would have to provide more evidence concerning those infants' specific condition and increasing in melatonin correlated to distress.

涅槃UID: 2592842

我来弱弱的说一下~第一，字数是不是太少了……如果第一段能够将文章中的问题按你展开的顺序描述一下的话既起到了增加字数又能给人对你下文的批驳有了大致的了解。第二，第二段似乎能再增加点例子就好了~~
啦啦~~我也只是说一下我个人的想法~~