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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 343          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-1-31 9:50:23
In this argument, the writer argues that the sales trend of Whirlwind is going to reversed. To bolster his assumptions, the writer points out three reasons for the reverse:A.a survey of video-game players shows that they are in favor of games that provide mimic graghics;B. Whirlwind has just introduced such games recently; and C. Whirlwind set out an extensive advertising campaign. Close scrutiny of each of these assuptions, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to this argument.

First and foremost, the writer provides a survey showing that some players thought the lifelike graphics was of vital importance to a video game. Yet the writer provides no details for the object and extent of the survey. It is entirely possible that this survey is done just in the surveyer's hometown and the number of people that taking the survey is just a fraction of the whole population. More importantly, the writer fails to inform us the age range of the people that takes this survey.Without rulling out this range, it is entirely possible that it is a group of old video gamers who just represents partial apinions of the whole trend.

Even if we assumes that the extend and object of the survey is systematical and scientifical, the writer ignores the fact that the lifelike graphics requires the  most up-to-date computers. It is entirely possible that most of the game player  do not have a "most up-to-date" computer and even if they are in great favor of  Whirlwind's game, their computers prevent them from playing those kind of games because of low performance.

Thirdly, even we assumes that most of the game players are in great favor the Whirlwind's game and their computers are all most up-to-date. The writer fails to consider the fact that although the players like the game, they would not pay  the fees of the game inmediately. Maybe there are other games thats also provides lifelike graphics and the prices are lower than that of Whirlwind, or the players have just been engaged in some other games and they have no interest in buying Whirlwind's games.

Finally, the extensive campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old may constitute a different consequence. Maybe other people in diiferent age-groups that favor the kind of games endorsed by Whirlwind most and they are not informed of the game. Moreover, even if Whirlwind has directed a successful campaign that focussed on the right age-group, the sales of Whirlwind video games are not likely to increase "in a few month". We all know that the endorsement of a comodity takes time and the decline of the sales may last for several years.

In final analysis, the writer fails to comsider several possible elements that may lead to different consequences. In order to bolster the argument, the writer needs to provide the object and the extent of the survey and inform us the reason why the sales of Whirlwind declined over the past two years. Moreover, we may also need to know the right age-group that favors the lifelike graphics of a video game.

霁月难逢UID: 2718354

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