argument147 【clover】第一次小组作业 by 桔子susan 第一次修改在3楼

桔子susanUID: 2754084

晚了，第一次写，用时很多，写的很少，请拍
147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past
two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales
trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what
features they thought were most important in a video game. According to
the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which
require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced
several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at
people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.
It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to
increase dramatically in the next few months."



In this argument, the author comes up with a proposal that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on a service which shows that video-game players think the most important feature of a video game is lifelike graphics,and due to their several analogous games with extensive advertisement. I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects.

First of all, the argument fails to give enough evidence which proves the survey is statistical reliable. Whether the video-game players asked are of a enough amount and cover all age brackets remain unknown. If the the survey is only conducted to a specific group of people, does not contain large amount of people 10 to 25 years old, the target age-group for its advertising, the author could not rely on it.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable, we still could not draw the above conclusion due to other possible factors that can influence the quality of a video game are not in consideration. Just like the well-known Cask Effect shows, any weak factor will cause the video game to be inferior. The plot, character, price, each could be a fatal factor. Especially, this kind of games request the most up-to-date computers which quantities of people could not afford it.

In addition, there are reasons to doubt whether the advertising, plays an effective role. The author provides no information of the ways to adevertise. People who indulge in playing games may not interesting in watching TV or reading newspaper, the familiar ways for adevertising.

Finally, even the people are willing to the games, we still can not come to the conclusion that the sales will increase dramatically in the next few months. It needs time to make sure the advertising is on work and promise the customers to upgrade their computers.

In conclusion, this recommendation is based on an unconvincing suppose, with ambiguous results.
To make the conclusion more convince,the author should consider the whole factors of increasing sales of a game and make a comprehensive service of the request for a game. Otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.

桔子susanUID: 2754084

感谢wcnk同学的认真批改，我先把批改的文章发上来，因为昨天才发现我家的word是精简版的，没有纠错功能，时间紧迫，没来得及找拼写错误，造成困扰，实在抱歉。


问题所在
语法错误
好词好句
个人改写


A147
In this argument, the author comes up with a proposal that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on a service which shows that video-game players think the most important feature of a video game is lifelike graphics, and due to their several analogous games with extensive advertisement. I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects.


First of all, the argument fails to give enough evidence which proves the survey is statistical reliable. Whether the video-game players asked are of an enough amount and cover all age brackets remain unknown. If the the survey is only conducted to a specific group of people, does not contain large amount of people 10 to 25 years old, (个人认为不应该将其他论据作为你论述的依据，万一它本身有问题怎么办？)the target age-group for its advertising, the author could not rely on it.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable, we still could not draw the above conclusion due to other possible factors that can influence the quality of a video game are not in consideration. Just like the well-known Cask Effect shows, any weak factor will cause the video game to be inferior. The plot, character, price, each could be a fatal factor.（凑字嫌疑~~好处是体现文采，不知应不应该写这么长。） Especially, this kind of games request the most up-to-date computers which quantities of people could not afford it.（这才是第二个攻击点~~分析有点少。）

In addition, there are reasons to doubt whether the advertising, plays an effective role. The author provides no information of the ways to adevertise. People who indulge in playing games may not interesting in watching TV or reading newspaper, the familiar ways for adevertising.（这个不算一种严重错误呀~~人家没说不等于没做~~）

Finally, even the people are willing to the games, we still can not come to the conclusion that the sales will increase dramatically in the next few months. It needs time to make sure the advertising is on work and promise the customers to upgrade their computers.（这段我理解为提意见，并没有指出新的攻击点，应该和结尾并起来）

In conclusion, this recommendation is based on an unconvincing suppose, with ambiguous results.
To make the conclusion more convince, the author should consider the whole factors of increasing sales of a game and make a comprehensive service of the request for a game. Otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.

总结：总体上攻击了三个问题：
1. 调查类错误（quantity of the survey）
2. 充分条件错误（引进玩家喜欢的游戏≠>销量一定提升）
3.考虑问题不全面（他因）

桔子susanUID: 2754084

修改一遍后的文章，希望cyct童鞋以及其他的童鞋们再狠狠拍拍，我会继续改进。


In this argument, the author comes up with a proposal that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on a service which shows that video-game players think the most important feature of a video game is lifelike graphics, and due to their several analogous games with extensive advertisement. I find this argument logically flaws in several aspects.

First of all, the argument fails to give enough evidence which proves the survey is statistical reliable. Whether the video-game players asked are of an enough amount and cover all age brackets remain unknown. If the survey is only conducted to a specific group of people, overlook the
opinion of the Whirlwind video games’ target customer, the author could not rely on it.

Even if the survey is statistically reliable, we still could not draw the above conclusion due to other possible factors that can influence the attraction of a video game are not in consideration. Besides the lifelike graphics, characteristic character, competitive price, good after service should be considered in. The author fails to mention whether there remain similar games produced by other firms. The customer may choose a vedio-game from a familiar firm, but not the Whirlwind. In addtion, this kind of game request the most up-to-date computers which quantities of people could not afford it. Even people can afford it, they may not willing to upgrade it for a series of trouble could bring in this process.

Finally, the conclusion can not be drawn, even the Whirlwind video games become the favorites of customers. The firm make extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old. As we know, this age group has little consumption for their limited income. The sales of the games may not increase dramatically, but in a slow pace of growth.
Whether the advertising is on work remains unknown, the effect of it may not appear in next few months, generally, people need time to consider whether they are desirable products and to manage enough money for the games together with the most up-to-date computers.


In conclusion, this recommendation is based on an unconvincing suppose, with ambiguous results.To make the conclusion more convince, the author should consider the whole factors of increasing sales of a game and make a comprehensive survey of the request for a game. Otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.

cyctUID: 2728144

已改