Argument45

hychlavenderUID: 2697566

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 440
TIME: 00:43:29
DATE: 2010/1/31 14:00:29

Opening with the discription of arctic deer's migration patterns and its causes, the argument seems to be plausible at fist glance, especially under the citing of local hunter's report. However,
hasty equation of coincide with causal relation and other flaws in the reasoning which could not be tolerated in an argument render the final conclusion unconvincing.

First and foremost, the report of deer population's decreasing from local hunters, which constitutes the basic precondition to establish such recommendation, may suffer from the question to its accuracy and reliability. Author informs us nothing about how did the local hunters get the data of deer' population declining, perhaps they just draw this conclusion from losing visual for the deer in a short period, which could easily be explained by the deer's living patterns: they move around in a year for looking food; or perhaps the hunters deliberately submit this report as an excuse for their declining acquisition in hunting. If so, based on the wrong report data, the following reasoning and conclusion may result into fallacy.

Secondly, the author makes an unsubstantial assumption that recent global warning has causal relationship with deer's population declining just basing on the mere fact that the two events happen at the same time. We are not informed with any information about the effect of global warming on the area where the deer inhabit, it is entirely possible that due to raising temperature the feed in their habitat grows faster, then the deer do not need to move around any more. Absent from such important information involving the global warming, the established relationship may not be warranted.

Even if accepting the claim which it is global warming that conducts the consequence of deer quantity’s decline, the author can not guarantee that it is through interrupting the deer’s migration patterns that global warming influence the problem of deer population. Global warming is capable to undermine the environment for deer’s living in several aspects: the raising temperature caused by global warming may make arctic deer uncomfortable and then lead to some undesirable disease spread among the community; the rising sea level, due to the ice melt, may submerge some place where they use to shelter their kids from attack. Without more detail information that could clearly illustrate the way that global warming effects the deer’s life, no conclusion could be made on solid ground.

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strength the foundation for the conclusion, the report from local hunter should be better demonstrated. More information about the global warming’ s effect should be offered to substantiate the causal relationship and the way it influence.

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

题号与argument之间没有空格哦~ 家家已经修改过标题了，下次要记得哦~ (*^__^*) 嘻嘻……

晚点来给你改作文哈~

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

Opening with the description of arctic deer's migration patterns and its causes, the argument seems to be plausible at fist glance, especially under the citing of local hunter's report. However, hasty equation of coincide with causal relation and other flaws in the reasoning which could not be tolerated in an argument render the final conclusion unconvincing.
(类似这种所谓的万能句子，说好听些是所有argument都适用，说白了就是不痛不痒，就好比一个人牙疼却开了咳嗽药水，反正吃不出毛病，但是也绝对治不好，时间久了还有致癌作用)【乍一眼看起来好像这样的开头非常牛，但是事实上这种开头是绝对不可取的，模板的印记太严重了，而且原文的逻辑链几乎都没有提及，可以比较不客气地说，这样的开头在现在这个模板横行的年代是绝对与高分无缘的，开头请认真重写。】

First and foremost, the report of deer population's decreasing from local hunters, which constitutes the basic precondition to establish such recommendation, may suffer from the question to its accuracy and reliability. (https://bbs.gter.net/thread-968840-1-1.html，关于原文中所给的survey及report类的数据，原则上都认为是正确的，不对材料本身做批驳，具体请参考所给链接，草木也知愁版主的“君子之辩”。) Author informs us nothing about how did the local hunters get the data of deer' population declining,
(这种质疑是相对比较无力的甚至可以说有些牵强，原文只有如此小的篇幅来描述作者的argument，要实现specific explanation甚难，换句话说在任何topic下的argument都可以提到这个漏洞，用这一点来作为第一段中的第一个攻击点，留给rater的印象分可想而知。当然事实上这个考察方式比如后文你所提到的诸如period之类的问题的确可以成为我们质疑原作者结论的理由，但是个人以为这应该算是次要逻辑错误，应该放在相对靠后的段落会显得更为妥当一些。) perhaps they just draw this conclusion from losing visual for the deer in a short period, which could easily be explained by the deer's living patterns: they move around in a year for looking food; (Arctic deer在该区域生存了这么久，难道单单this year去觅食消失了么？它们的所谓living pattern到底是怎么样的呢？是否发生了变化？发生变化的原因又在于什么？一句话可以引申出这么多的问题，论述的漏洞可见一斑。再插一句，其实每一篇argument都可以找出很多个逻辑漏洞，完全没有必要面面俱到，我们所应该做的，就是分析透彻我们能够发现或者说能够阐述清楚的错误，足矣，左右开弓的话反而显得单薄而混乱，argument的高分绝不是比较谁能找到的逻辑错误多，而在于条理清晰，驳斥有力。简言之，在于精。) or perhaps the hunters deliberately submit this report as an excuse for their declining acquisition in hunting. (这个理由也是同样道理，hunters为什么要找excuse呢？他们这么做的目的在于什么？) If so, based on the wrong report data, the following reasoning and conclusion may result into fallacy.

Secondly, the author makes an unsubstantial assumption that recent global warning has causal relationship with deer's population declining just basing on the mere fact that the two events happen at the same time.（红色部分可以放在后面论述的部分展开，每段的主题句一定要精练，既要清楚指出逻辑错误所在，又不赘述。） We are not informed with any information about the effect of global warming on the area where the deer inhabit, it is entirely possible that due to raising temperature the feed in their habitat grows faster, then the deer do not need to move around any more. （这里很显然差半句，do not need to move around any more，然后呢？跟我们的论证有什么关系？应该怎么联系起来？因为the deer do not need to move around any more, 于是不再进入hunters平常的狩猎区域等诸如此类造成report显示arctic deer数量下降的直接原因，论述一定要完整，不要让rater去合理推断）Absent from such important information involving the global warming, the established relationship may not be warranted.

Even if accepting the claim which it is global warming that conducts the consequence of deer quantity’s decline, the author can not guarantee that it is through interrupting the deer’s migration patterns that global warming influence the problem of deer population.(这句话组织上有问题，存在歧义，改写一下) Global warming is capable to undermine the environment for deer’s living in several aspects: the raising temperature caused by global warming may make arctic deer uncomfortable and then lead to some undesirable disease spread among the community; the rising sea level, due to the ice melt, may submerge some place where they use to shelter their kids from attack.（这里还是差半句，问题与上一段中类似） Without more detail information that could clearly illustrate the way that global warming effects the deer’s life, no conclusion could be made on solid ground.

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strength the foundation for the conclusion, the report from local hunter should be better demonstrated. More information about the global warming’ s effect should be offered to substantiate the causal relationship and the way it influence. 【个人习惯，结尾不改】

红色为有问题的部分，绿色批注为个人建议，蓝色批注为整段评价

hychlavenderUID: 2697566

3# 家家☆yoonjae

谢谢家家大大~

豁然开朗啊~

呵呵，之前新东方的东西我该丢就要丢啦~万分感谢~再MUA一下~嘻嘻