@@茶叶蛋炒饭@@ 第十七次作业 ARGUMENT20 请组员跟帖

yeshen2010UID: 2744103

ARGUMENT20

The notion that Balmer council can attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accident seemed at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. But with a clear examination of the author's reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.

First of all, the accidents may not be led by mopeds from the six moped and bicycle rental companies, instead by mopeds from local citizens. And the editor did not state the accidents' portion that led by mopeds and pedestrians. If the percentage is too small, then there is no need to take limiting measurements which would influence local incomes.

Secondly, if the accidents happened because of the reasons as the author said, reducing the number of renting mopeds cannot realize the aim to attain the 50 percent reduction. As far as we know that the factors leading accidents are various, for example, violating transportation's rules, the hot weather, or the road situation.
Even if it happened that the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents, there is no sufficient evidence to suggest that the mopeds and pedestrians' accidents rate will reduce 50 percent. These are two different concerts between accident rate of mopeds and accident rate of mopeds and pedestrians.

Thirdly, the measurements taken in Torseau may be not suitable to Balmer. Perhaps, the mopeds in Torseau are everywhere and every adult has one. While in Balmer, maybe mopeds and pedestrians are just in renting companies, and the main communication is others, such as cars. Hence, Balmer should consider much more to take the means.

To sum up, the author fails to substantiate his claim clearly. Because the evidence cited in the analysis is too weak to lend strong support to what the arguer suggests. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should convince us with more specific information.

限时写的，才这么一点点，求拍！

imlifewillingUID: 2706999

by 懒蚂蚁
（39分钟，599字，还可以）
15:46
The author of this editorial asserts that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the six moped and bicycle rental companies on the island form 50 per day to 30 per day in order to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians based on the assumption that Torseau achieved the 50reduction in moped accidents after enforcing similar limits on moped rentals. However, this assumption is not strongly supported in several aspects.

To begin with, the author mistakes the number of mopeds and bicycles as the main reason for accidents.Though more number of mopeds and bicycles might means increasing possibilities of accidents, it is the education and the attention of people that cause most of the accidents. Perhaps there would be less accidents if people in Balmer were asked and indeed acted to obey the traffic rules. Or perhaps if the people, no matter the pedestrians or the mopeds-users, take much care of others, there might not be so many accidents. So only by reducing the number of mopeds and bicycles without changing people's attitude toward the safety, it is hard to reduce the number of accidents. Therefore the main attention of the town council of Balmer should be paid to making people comply with traffic rules and take care of each other.

In the second place, even though the number of mopeds and bicycles is the main cause of accidents, there is no evidence to prove that only through reducing the number of mopeds rented by the companies can truly decrease the number of accidents. Perhaps the companies would open some other stores so that the total number of mopeds does not change at all. Or perhaps more citizens of Balmer would purchase a mopeds which would also keep the number of mopeds stable. So without those and other conditions that might influence the number of mopeds being eliminated, it is unconvincing to say that the real number of mopeds would be decreased and so do the number of accidents.

In the third place, the author fails to compare the conditions of Balmer with Torseau's. Perhaps Toseau has a good geological conditions such as large plain that are suitable to the use of mopeds while Balmer has more hills or curved roads that are not fit for mopeds. Or perhaps the number of people during the summer months in Toreasu is less than the number of Balmer. Both of those two facts might make the polices useless for Balmer while they can make great contribution to the decrease of accidents in Torseau. So the author should considered those conditions before making a conclusion.

In the last place, even the policy that made the moped accidents in Torseau reduce 50 percent can also make the same result in Balmer, it does not mean that the number of moped and pedestrian accidents would be decreased in Balmer. Perhaps the number of pedestrian accidents would increase more than the decrease of moped accidents which would result in a increase of the total accidents. In a word, it is necessary for the author to consider the effects of pedestrian accidents to the total accidents.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing in so many aspects that the author need to make more investigation before making out a conclusion. The main cause of moped and pedestrian accidents must be made clear. The differences between those two islands must be find out for evaluating the effects of this policy. What's more, the change of the number of pedestrian accident must be considered too. Only by all these aspects being discussed can the author make a convincing conclusion.
16:25

修改yeshen
The notion that Balmer council can attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accident seemed at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. But with a clear examination of the author's reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.

First of all, the accidents may not be led by mopeds from the six moped and bicycle rental companies, instead by mopeds from local citizens. And the editor did not state the accidents' portion that led by mopeds and pedestrians. If the percentage is too small, then there is no need to take limiting measurements which would influence local incomes.
说明事故的问题，是怎么产生的。
Secondly, if the accidents happened because of the reasons as the author said, reducing the number of renting mopeds cannot realize the aim to attain the 50 percent reduction. As far as we know that the factors leading accidents are various, for example, violating transportation's rules, the hot weather, or the road situation.
你都说明了原因是向作者说的一样，那么下面还来其他原因，不太好吧。
Even if it happened that the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents, there is no sufficient evidence to suggest that the mopeds and pedestrians' accidents rate will reduce 50 percent. These are two different concerts between accident rate of mopeds and accident rate of mopeds and pedestrians.
这个点可以展开说一下啊，就是moped事故减少，但是pedestrian事故增加，同样不会降低事故率。
Thirdly, the measurements taken in Torseau may be not suitable to Balmer. Perhaps, the mopeds in Torseau are everywhere and every adult has one. While in Balmer, maybe mopeds and pedestrians（这个是“行人”的意思） are just in renting companies, and the main communication is others, such as cars. Hence, Balmer should consider much more to take the means.
说明两地的不同，还是要展开下，稍微的展开下就好。
To sum up, the author fails to substantiate his claim clearly. Because the evidence cited in the analysis is too weak to lend strong support to what the arguer suggests. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should convince us with more specific information.（结尾这三句有问题啊，中间的应该是和依据连在一起的，但是我没看出来是那一句。好像都可以）
攻击点都找到了，还是要稍微展开下。

imlifewillingUID: 2706999

多发了一遍，就把这个删去了。不好意思啊。占了一层楼，哈哈哈

fly-2011UID: 2707582

The editor recommends that the town council of Balmer could reduce population by limiting the number of mopeds and bicycles. However, the editor commits some errors which render his conclusion unreasonable.

First of all, the editor concludes that the reduction in moped accidents resulted from the limits. Though moped accidents in the island of Torseau has reduced since the limits, but it does not mean that the limits contribute to the reduction. The author does not provide more factors related to this problem. For example, Torseau may egnact some regulations to control the actions. Furthermore, the reduction in moped accidents last year could not indicate the condition will continue in the following years. Thus, without further information, the author could not conclude that the accidents reduction of Torseau resulted from teh limits.

Secondly, even if the reduction in moped accidents of Torseau resulted from the limits, the author unfairly consider that accidents of Balmer Island would be reduced as soon as apply the limit. However, the author does not consider that there are many differences among the two islands. The weather condition, economical condition and so on. Though Torseau receive good effects after the limits, but Balmer would not. Managers from Balmer do not know what measures they take. Thus, the author could not get to the conclusion.

In sum, with the above errors, the editor could not assure us his or her conclusion.

比较失败