【clover】 106G Argument117 by 九天揽月

九天揽月UID: 2737667

Argument117 2010-02-07
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

据最近一份回答者超过70%的调查报告显示，和过去相比，回答者被要求将更多的工作带回家完成。由于VM在过去没有看到办公用品部门有突出的业绩，我们应该利用这中在家工作的趋势，在所有VM商店增加在家办公机器，例如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增大办公用品的投资，如用纸、钢笔和订书机的库存。通过这些改变，办公用品部门将成为我们商店中利润最大的部门。

The argument presented above is relatively sound, however, the conclusion that by increasing stock of home office machines and office supplies can be profitable is not sufficiently supported by the evidence above.

To begin with, the author provides no clear evidence that the survey is statistically reliable. Over 70 percent responding rate seems to be highly representative at first sight, however, the author doesn't refer the total number of respondents at all. As we know, 70 percent based on 100 and 10 is considerably distinct. Again, without information of how broad the survey is, if it is limited in a specific area, the result is possibly soundless. Therefore, it is unreasonable to assume there will be an increase of the number of the work-at-home.

Given that such trend exists, to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies in all VM stores is not rational enough. Since there is no reference of what kind of work is done more at home, it is entirely possible that the workers may not need such machines at all. For example, if they edit articles for the websites or they just do handwork. Or perhaps they have bought them in the past if they really need them. The author also fails to consider the geographic and consumers differences in various areas. Is it true that all over the country the work-at-home will ascend or only a special area? If the trend is not extensive, then the proposal may not be applied in all stores. For those reasons, the suggestion is not persuasive.

Moreover, without any evaluation of the market and information of other competitors it is hardly to assume that the office supply in Valu-Mart will be profitable. As the office supply sales didn’t improve impressively in the past, the reason may be that the whole market is not prosperous, or other stores providing the same machines have already occupied the main market and have a certain group of consumers. Then, increasing the stock may possibly lead to over-stocking of products, which will decrease the profits instead of flourishing the sales.


Finally, the assertion that the office supply department will be the most profitable in the Valu-Mart stores is unconvincing. Perhaps there are other competitive departments in the stores which may be more profitable, or other departments will apply some innovative methods to increase the sales. All of these are possible to cause a contrary result in the office supply stores.

In conclusion, the argument is weakened by assuming a groundless trend and overlooking several factors that contribute to the profit increasing. To improve the credibility of the proposal, the author needs to evaluate the work-at-home trend under different situations, investigate the whole office supply market and figure out the plausibility of the suggestion.

gc1030255UID: 2550033

改了~
月月加油~

九天揽月UID: 2737667

O(∩_∩)O谢谢！

九天揽月UID: 2737667

修改了~