Phoenix小组组员11号2010.2.12 argument

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The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”

In this argument , the author conclude that in order to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenue, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View. To support its idea, the author use the facts that after building a municipal golf course and resort hotel, the economy and tax revenue of Ocean View has been greatly boosted. This argument seems reasonable at first glance. However, after some close scrutiny, I found it unperceivable in many ways.
First of all, the author assumes that Ocean View’s building of the golf course and resort hotel are directly responsible for its burgeon in economy. In this way, he forgets other important facts that contribute to Ocean View’s economy, including a better macro economy circumstance. Without eliminating other factors, the author can not get the conclusion.
Secondly, even if I concede it is the building of the golf course and resort hotel that make the economy to grow. The author still forget that what he had cited happened two years ago, which might be outdated. We know that when time passes, things change. What seems best two years ago may be impropriate now. If the situation becomes different, the author’s conclusion will be questionable.
Thirdly, to get his conclusion, the author assumes that what fit for Ocean View will be definitely suitable to Hopewell. Great possibilities are that people are much poorer than that of Ocean View or they just don’t like tourism. Therefore, building two luxury places will even jeopardize its local economy, let alone increase its tax revenue. And also, when Hopewell’s natural resources are fully utilized, adding another construction will make their burden heavier. Thus, the results would not be as positive as the author expected.
Finally, even if I admit the author’s logic is reasonable, there might be other methods which will perform better than the author’s proposition. These methods include ameliorating its government system and doing some construction of infrastructure facilities.
To sum up, the author gets his conclusion too hasty when he ignores other factors and possibilities. To bolster his conclusion, the author needs to provide further information such as the original economy condition between the two towns, their people’s preference, and so on.