新春写Argument190求拍，欢迎友人拍文，有拍必回

longlong6789UID: 2737470

TOPIC: ARGUMENT190 - The following is aletter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the numberof people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concertseries has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weatherhas been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for thedecline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concertseven in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice ofmusic, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in thefuture and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordingsGlenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings.This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and willincrease attendance at the concerts."



The arguer concludes that the concertshould choose some music more modern composed by Richerts in their future toincrease the community support which decreasing in the past few years. To provethat, the arguer analyze the situation about advance tickets in the past years.And the arguer also rules out the weather reason to the declining of advancetickets. At the first glaze, these supporting proofs seem logically, but theyare unconvinced as the arguer does not think about all aspects.

First of all, there is no clearlycorrelation between these situations happened in past few years with the currentattendance. Maybe the finance plays an important part in the situation. As thetickets fee is hardly to afford in the past years as the economics is not goodenough. And during current time, there is an increasing in people’s income, andthen it is entirely possible that the citizens will purchase the tickets. It isstill possible that the environment in the concert was unsatisfied. And afterthe improving of the environment there will be an increasing in purchasingadvance tickets. What’s more, as well known, every period has its own musicalstyle, maybe in the past time Richerts’s music is welcomed, but the so-calledout fashion works will be reborn in the future. Concerning these causes, wecannot judge the consequence of the future will be better or worse simply bythe past surroundings.

Secondly, even if the past surroundingswill continued to the current time, it should be noted that advance tickets arenot equal to the attendance in the fact. People could buy advance tickets butthey would not attend the concert if they just have some emergency things to doduring the time. And the declining in advance tickets does not mean to adecreasing in the attendance percentage neither. For instances, some audiencelike to buy the tickets just before the concert begin, as they are afraid ofwasting in advance tickets that they have bought but could not attending. Sothe arguer just makes a recommendation based on the declining in advancetickets is far beyond enough.

Admittedly, the arguer cannot rule out theweather factor as the data cited is totally vague. The author only tells usthere are many people attended to the concert even in a bad weather; however,the author does not mention how many they are. It is entirely possible that thepercentage of attending is still very low, or at least not as much as thepercentage in anticipated. In fact, it is also possible that just because the increasingof purchasing in the Richerts's recording, people could choose to listen musicat home as an alternate choice when the weather is unsatisfied. Withoutsupporting some surveys to get rid of these alternative factors, the conclusionthat unpredicted weather cannot be the reason of declining in obtain advancetickets is unreliable.

In the sum, as to the limit of time, thereare still many other factors cannot be list one by one, though the arguer has analyzedsome reasons. To conclude the arguer’s recommendation the arguer should provideother surveys or data to indicate the connection between the advance ticketswith attending percentage and exclude the possibility of other causes. If the letterhad solved the given factors mentioned above, the advice would have been morethorough and logically acceptable.

longlong6789UID: 2737470

睡前顶一顶～

crossbowUID: 2689120

我还没准备argu呢，不然肯定改。帮顶一下，有issue全发给我：）

TEFouDAFUID: 2759255

請樓主以後發帖時先稍稍改正一下
一些空格不見了 閱讀時會有障礙的

longlong6789UID: 2737470

4# TEFouDAF 多谢多谢……以后会注意的

静静SerenaUID: 2642150

你好， 你什么时候机考呢？

longlong6789UID: 2737470

6# 静静Serena 3.12你呢？

holmeszhouUID: 2617873

个人意见 FALSE DILEMA没有指出来.
另外想探讨一个问题昂,关于文章中最后一个FALLACY天气问题.
我觉得天气应该不是构成人数下降的原因,因为在Over the past few years,Concert series
这样多次重复的事件中,天气不好的概率是趋于稳定的,也就是说, 个别天数的天气不好不会对整体的票源情况产生影响.
不知道这样想是不是有点多余呢?

longlong6789UID: 2737470

8# holmeszhou 呵呵，谢谢～言之成理即可，原文是“Although the weatherhas been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for thedecline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concertseven in bad weather.”我认为这个是模糊数据，所以攻击不能排除这个原因，究竟是不是就交给rater烦恼去吧～

ningbo1990UID: 2641538

7# longlong6789
你是北京考吗？我也312

longlong6789UID: 2737470

回LS，我上海考…………