Argument53 考前求拍2.23

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT53- Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showedsigns of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusualodor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that theseinfants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in earlyautumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known toaffect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreaseddaylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half ofthese children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identifiedthemselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth causeshyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.



提纲：
1. study不可信
2. infants distress不是由于decrease daylight
3. distress和shyness概念混淆，也不一定持续到成年



WORDS: 536
TIME: 00:29:04
DATE: 2010-2-18 10:41:26

The argument concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth would result in shyness during infancy and it continues into later life. In support of this conclusion, the author cites a 13-years-ago research on 25 infants suffered from mild distress. In addition, the author points out that the majority ofthem had identified themselves as shy in the follow-up study. However, acareful examination of this argument reveals how groundless it is.

To begin with, given no evidence about the representative of this study, we have every reason to doubt the trustworthiness of it, rendering any conclusion based upon it dubious.First, a group of 25 infants is a relatively small sample that cannot represent all infants throughout the world. Second, the author necessarily assumes that the thirteen-years-ago trend or phenomena would equally apply to nowadays. Third,the author fails to define the word "mild". To make it clear and understandable,the author has to detail how “mild” each of them are, that is the exact severity of distress. In short, the author has to provide more information to convince meof the credibility of this study.

Moreover, the author fails to substantiate the assumption that it is because of decreased daylight that those infants became distress. It is entirely possible that other factors would result in the same consequence. For example, a family environment where violence frequently occurs impairs both the physical and psychological health of an infant. In that case, what we should do is to form a better living condition for those babies instead of dealing with the problem when to give birth. Also, an air or water pollution may bring about this distress after a large amount of them is consumes by infants. Either scenario would provide analternative explanation. Therefore, the author's failure to investigate or even take these possibilities into account renders the conclusion the author reaches based upon it highly suspect.

Finally, even if Iwere to concede that decreased daylight would cause distress during infancy,the author unjustifiably equals "distress" with "shyness".However, these two words are used in different situations with totally different causes and symptoms. In common sense, “distress” is a kind of disease while “shyness” is person’s characteristics. Before making this equation, the author should give reasonable explanation for it; otherwise, I would be confused with these conceptions. Even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumption, he/she unfairly assumes that this shyness would probably continue when they grow up with a mere fact that most of teenagers in the follow-up study claim themselves being shyness. Still, the author does not detail the severity of shyness which may result from factors other than the influence during infancy. Thus,I doubt the conclusion which is based on these insufficient evidences and flaws seriously.

To sum up, theconclusion in this argument is invalid and misleading. To make it logically acceptable, the author has to demonstrate the trustiness of the study and the cause of distress during infancy is decreased daylight indeed. Moreover, I would suspend my credibility about this argument before the author provides more information about the clear definition of "distress" and"shyness" together with the possibility to continue the shyness into later life.