[a习作temp] Argument194题，感觉挺麻烦的一道题，大家猛拍 [复制链接]

Kouguntyou
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发表于 2010-2-22 15:32:41 |显示全部楼层

感觉这道题逻辑错误不难找，但真正写起来绕来绕去总觉得条例绕不清楚...看了修锐老师的全分析和终极提纲上的分析，总觉得有些怪。自己尝试分析写了一篇。
刚写第4篇argument的小菜鸟，大家不用留情猛拍哈！刚上手模版用得也有些多...大家看看会不会很生硬...谢谢大家了：）

194. A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to succeed in business than are right-handed people. Researchers studied photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives and found that 21 percent of these executives wrote with their left hand. So the percentage of prominent business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent). Thus, people who are left-handed would be well advised to pursue a career in business, whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers.

In this argument, the author concludes that left-handed people would be well advised to pursue a career in business so that right-handed ones would be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers. To support the conclusion, the author adduces a recent study which suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely to succeed in business. However, the argument relies on several unsubstantiated assumptions which render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. The survey based on photographs of 1000 prominent business executives and found that 21 percentage of them wrote with their left hand. First, the resherchers ignore the fact that people write with their left hand does not mean they are left-handed. Further more, even the 21 percentage of the 1000 samples are really left-handed people, because the author does not tell us how the 1000 samples are chosen so that we do not know if the samples were representative of all prominent business executives. And we are also not informed that what fraction of left-handed people who pursue a career in business. So that the result of the survey is insufficient to support the conclusion that left-handed people perform better on the business stage than right-handed ones because it is entirely possible that there are 50 percent of business executives are left-handed but only 21 percent of prominent business executives are left-handed ones.

In the second place, even if the conclusion of the survey is true, it does not necessarily prove that the right-handed people should be well advised to imitate the business practices exhibited by left-handers. Because it is hard to predict a business executive will be prominent in the future so that it is impossible to know exactlly that which one of left-handed business executives could be imitated. And when he has got a success and became a prominent business excutive, there is no difference now between imitating his business practices and a right-handed prominent business excutive's practices.

Finally, the author concludes that being left-handed is responsible for the left-hander's business success. However, the sequence of these events, in itself, does not suffice to prove that the former caused the later one. The business success is a result caused by multiple factors and not only attributed to being left-handed. And no direct evidence in this argument is provided to prove that the left-handed habit can influence people's business practices so that lead them to seccess.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that being left-handed causes business success. The author must also assure me that the fraction of left-handed prominent business executives is obviously larger than the right-handed ones.