【big fish】习作1.1 argument No.5---by topran

topranUID: 2310216

TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
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This article conclude that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years . To justify this conclusion the author notes the following reason:(1),the number of arthritis patients in our country will increase 20 million in next 20 years .(2)nowadays, the most profitable pharmaceutical company is the company who has the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis.(3)clinical studies show the serious patients prefer Xylan more than Xenon. I find this argument logically unconvincing in several aspects .

Firstly , the number of arthritis patients increase in home country does not necessary
mean that the sells of arthritis drug will increase . Maybe the pharmaceutical industry in home country is mainly support by the overseas market , the most of production is export , so if the overseas market shrink highly, even with the increase need of home country , there is still possibility that
the sell of arthritis drug will goes down.

Secondly, we can not know that Xenon is the main reason for Becton Pharmaceuticals to gain profit , maybe the company has the other drug which is more popular and profitable than Xenon. Even if Xenon is the major product of Becton Pharmaceuticals, we still can not precede that the other company who produce arthritis drug is as profitable as Becton, because there are many reason for a product become best-selling like the culture of the company , the reputation of the product , the
marketing strategy . And as the article mentioned , after three years , the patent will be expired , there will be more player in the market with cheaper drug , thus with the fierce competition between companies , the profit of arthritis drug will be less than now.

Thirdly, the clinical studies is also worth to doubt ,
the sample is not been chosed scientifically , on the contrary , it contains serious bias . The preference of extreme cases can not represent the regular consumers of arthritis drug.

To sum up , the author does not give us credible support to conclusion , without more convincing evidence ,we can not tell that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable Pharmaceutical company in ten years .

greekyUID: 2605662

1# topran
This article conclude that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years . To justify this conclusion the author notes the following reason:(1),the number of arthritis patients in our country will increase 20 million in next 20 years .(2)nowadays, the most profitable pharmaceutical company is the company who has the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis.(3)clinical studies show the serious patients prefer Xylan more than Xenon. I find this argument logically unconvincing in several aspects .

Firstly , the number of arthritis patients increase in home country does not necessary
mean that the sells （sales）of arthritis drug will increase . Maybe the pharmaceutical industry in home country is mainly support by the overseas market , the most of production is export , so if the overseas market shrink highly, even with the increase need of home country , there is still possibility that
the sell of arthritis drug will goes down.

Secondly, we can not know that Xenon is the main reason for Becton Pharmaceuticals to gain profit , maybe the company has the other drug which is more popular and profitable than Xenon. Even if Xenon is the major product of Becton Pharmaceuticals, we still can not precede that the other company who produce arthritis drug is as profitable as Becton, because there are many reason for a product become best-selling like the culture of the company , the reputation of the product , the
marketing strategy . And as the article mentioned , after three years , the patent will be expired , there will be more player in the market with cheaper drug , thus with the fierce competition between companies , the profit of arthritis drug will be less than now.

Thirdly, the clinical studies is also worth to doubt ,
the sample is not been chosed scientifically , on the contrary , it contains serious bias . The preference of extreme cases can not represent the regular consumers of arthritis drug.

To sum up , the author does not give us credible support to conclusion , without more convincing evidence ,we can not tell that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable Pharmaceutical company in ten years .
语言完全没的问题，但是单靠大量罗列可能性来驳斥原文我觉得会让阅卷人觉得过于单调~~
还有，能不能多写一点？ 这个字数搞不好要背扣印象分了:)

topranUID: 2310216

1# topran  
This article conclude that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years . To justify this conclusion the author notes the following reason:(1), ...
greeky 发表于 2010-2-23 21:23

嗯，我快愁死了，我念数学的，什么都是怎么简洁怎么来，写不出字咋办，只挑的出错，写不出字，咋办呢