argument19第二篇习作 写了很长时间 大家猛拍

water5045UID: 2688074

TOPIC: ARGUMENT19 - The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."

  In this letter, the manager recommends that the rock band should hire Ad Lib to repeat the success across the country as in Megalopolis.To support that recommendation ,the manager cites that the 30000 tickets were sold out in 12 minutes which indicated the band's increasing popularity among 14 to 15 year-old children and Ad Lib's successful advertising campaign.After scrutiny of this argument,I find it problematic in several respects .
  To begin with,the manager's recommendation relies on the assumption that the success in Megalopolis was the indication of Double Rice's increasing popularity.But the argument does not provide any evidence that Double Rice's popularity has increased.Perhaps the 30000tickets' sold out in a short time was due to that a certain organization such as a company sponsored the concert and invited its staff to attend the band's concert,so the tickets were sold on a large scale.Or perhaps the ticket--selling way has changed,and by selling the band's tickets on the net people can buy them more quickly and conveniently,while during the past time people could not .Either is the case,the argument cannot justify that the band's popularity has increased.
  The second problem is that the manager hastily concludes that the success can be easily repeated across the country just by hiring Ad Lib which helped Double Rice enjoy a success in Megalopolis.The manager overlooks the fact that each area is different in respects such as the construction of people's age,level of education and trend of music.Without investigating the other districts' conditions, the manager cannot ensure that the band's success will be repeated by hiring Ad Lib.Possibility is that people in other areas would not enjoy Double Rice's music or that some other bands are more popular in those areas and the Double Rice cannot enjoy a benefit at all.So ,lacking information of conditions in other areas,the argument is unconvincing.
  Finally, the manager fails to provide other choices for Double Rice in the letter,and maybe Ad Lib is not the best one even if it did much help to the band's success in Megalopolis.Perhaps if Double Rice hired other advertising agencies,the popularity has increased more greatly and the band has more fans with larger span of ages.Without comparing Ad Lib to other advertising agencies,the manager's recommendation is weak .
  In sum,this recommendation is unpersuasive.To better assess the argument the manager must prove that the success in Megalopolis is indication of the band's popularity increasing and that the advertising agency Ad Lib is the best choice for Double Rice,and finally, evidence that the band can be successful in other district or cities also helps evaluate this recommendation.

water5045UID: 2688074

我的提纲大致是：
1. 售票的情况不一定说明了double rice 的受欢迎程度增长了
2.M这个地方的成功并不一定具有代表性 全国的情况不一样
3.作者没有说还有没有别的广告公司更好