【Big Fish】习作-2.28 Argument53-By Narashy

NarashyUID: 2602795

In this argument, the speaker asserts that the increased levels of melatonin before birth would cause shyness during infancy which continues to appear into later life. To reinforce his/her theory, the speaker cites the study taken on 25 infants. Althouth appealing, the whole conclusion rests on a series of unsubstantiated assumption which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the author fails to build the causal relation between melatonin and mild distress by the study on infants. How many infants were conceived in early autumn? Are these 25 infants comes from the same place or selected in a large area? Are they representitive? The study should be statistically reliable, however, we see no sign of this sampling in the argument. Unless it can be shown that the results on these 25 infants are representitive, the conclusion is highly suspectable.

Secondly, even if the assumption that it is melatonin that leads to the distress holds, which is completely unwarranted, it does not necessarily follow that ths distress in childhood would cause shyness when they grow up. As we all know, the character is determined by both gene and environment, of while the latter should be emphasised more. It is entirely possible that these 25 children come from the same place where most people are very shy and seldom talk to each other. Under this circumanstance, children would develop a shy character more easily than others no matter if they were affected by the melatonin.

In addition, there are other alternatives that the author should have taken into account. Such alternatives may include: Is there other material possesing the same functionality as melatonin which has been neglected by the author? The identifications made by the children themselves are probably not acurate. Further analysis and investigation should be conducted before making any conclusion.

To sum up, the speaker's conclusion is not well-supported. In order to convince me this conclusion, the author should provide concrete information about how the study is conducted. Such as how the sampling is done. To better evaluate the recommendation, a causality between distress in childhood and shyness should be established.