ARGUMENT170 病毒与销量 求拍【有拍必回】

爱上千年的猫UID: 2476232

（1）For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for
oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. （2）This trend began
shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. （3）But scientists have
now devised a process for killing the bacteria. （4）Once consumers are made aware of the
increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf
Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster
producers will follow.

20:30~35~21:03
2——1——3——4
1. the time: past five years= the time bacteria is found
2.other factors
3.the price is likely to fall for the supply increased
4. get used to the other oysters

The author predicts that the profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will go up, since a new process is devised to kill harmful bacteria to guarantee the safety of Gulf Coast oysters. The author also cites that the price of oysters from southeastern Atlantic Coast is twice as much as that from Gulf Coast for the past five year, and this trend started shortly from the discovery of harmful bacteria in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. However, the prediction of the author is set on several unsubstantiated assumption, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, the causal relation between the price change and bacteria found in Gulf Coast oysters is not so clear for the following reason. On one hand, the price change happened five year ago. And there is no sign showing that the bacteria were also found at the same time. On the other hand, the harmful bacteria were found only in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. It can not be concluded that all the oysters in Gulf Coast is affected by the bacteria. No can we draw the conclusion that health will be affected by the cooked oysters, in which the harmful bacteria may be composed. In short, the correlation is not so firm since the author simply assumes that the above possibilities do not exist.

Secondly, other factors other than the bacteria found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters may also shut down the demand. For example, the transporting cost rises, making it unprofitable for the producers in Gulf Coast. Or the oysters from northeastern Atlantic Coast are advertised to be more delicious and nutritious. However, the author simply assumes that these factors have no influence on the price change.

Thirdly, once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, the likely result may be a fall in average price rather greater profits. Common sense informs us that the price of good would go down when the supply increases, with other factors remain the same. So when there are more oysters supplied in the market, producers will lower the price to gain more consumers. Thus the profits of oyster producers may not increase at all.

In sum, to better support the author's prediction, more information is needed to enhance the correlation between the price fall and bacteria. Besides, the author should prove that other factors have no substantial influence on the price. But the author's prediction that oyster producers will gain more when the consumers are informed the safety of Gulf Coast oysters break the law of supply and demand and therefore unconvincing.
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