1006G SPECTACULAR 备考日记 by tequilawine [无]--最初的梦想绝对会到达

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic: Japan’s return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen日圆, 日元 during the 1920s

For politicians and policy-makers throughout the industrialized world, the return to the gold standard following the end of World War I was an article of faith (Eichengreen and Temin, 1997).Despite the historical and emotional appeal of the gold standard, the road back was neither direct nor smooth. Inflationary—and sometimes hyper inflationary—war-time finance, combined with the war’s physical destruction made the return problematic问题的, 有疑问的. Countries attempting to return to the gold standard at the prewar parity were forced to undergo substantial deflation, with considerable political and economic cost (e.g., [Temin, 1989], [Eichengreen, 1992], [Simmons, 1994], [Eichengreen and Temin,1997], [Obstfeld and Taylor, 2003], [Wolf and Yousef, 2007]and [Wandschneider, 2008]).

This paper examines the experience of interwar 两次战争之间的Japan and its efforts to restore gold convertibility可改变，可变换，可兑换
throughout the1920s. Japan presents an interesting case study of monetary politics in the interwar period. Economically, Japan seemed to be ready to return to gold at the close of World War I: Japan accumulated foreign assets during the war,becoming a net international creditor for the first time since the Meiji Restoration (Flath, 2005, pp. 44–45). Nonetheless, Japan was the last industrialized country to restore gold convertibility, which it did in January 1930. Thus,given that economic conditions seemed to be suitable for the restoration of gold standard at the end of the war, Japan’s tardiness 缓慢; 不情愿; 迟延is puzzling.17 P; F& O$ \. ^5 w* n! g4 O
To shed some light on this issue, we undertake an iterative 反复的,重复的,迭代的,迭接的endogenous search for the turning points in the value of the yen and look for coincident events that are likely to have been responsible for them. Using this methodology方法学; 方法论, we hope to determine what events were found by contemporaries to be turning points in Japan’s path back to the gold standard, which was completed on January 11, 1930. Our approach reveals five statistically robust 强[健]壮的; 雄壮的turning points, two caused by political events and three by diplomatic-military events.

The political turning points are associated with changes of power between the Kenseikai and Seiyukai parties:the value of the yen turned downward—and continued to fall—on April 1927, when the Rikken Seiyukai (Friends of Constitutional Government Party) took the control of the cabinet from the Kenseikai (Constitutional Party), whereas it soared after July 1929, when Kenseikai regained the cabinet control. These two turning points illustrate the classic notion of “trilemma” which states that policy-makers cannot simultaneously fix the exchange rate, allow free capital mobility, and maintain monetary autonomy (e.g., Obstfeld et al., 2005). Kenseikai favored fiscal restraint, conciliatory 安抚的; 调和的foreign policy, and prompt restoration of the gold standard at the prewar parity while Seiyukai opposed these economic and diplomatic policies Metzler (2006). Hence, forward-looking 有远见的investors, being keenly aware of policy-constraints given by the trilemma, must have anticipated yen appreciation with the Kenseikai in the control of cabinet and depreciation跌价, 减价, 贬值 with the Seiyukai in power.! V( C" J; Q+ ?' H2 R8 [3 z1 |! q8 {

The diplomatic-military events that coincided with与--一致 yen’s turning points are: (1) the long-awaited troop with drawal following the Siberian Intervention in the summer of 1922, which had drained使耗尽; 用完 fiscal resources from the Japanese government for previous three years; (2) the escalation不断增加; 逐步上升
of civil war in China in October 1924; and (3) the Jinan incident of May 1928, in which localized armed conflicts between Kuomintang and Japanese troops in the capital of Shandong led the Japanese government to deploy additional troops in China. These turning points suggest that the Japanese government had a hard time establishing credibility because of its military involvement in Asia (particularly China), the fiscal cost of which was perceived to be inconsistent with full convertibility at the prewar rate. Taken together, the results suggest that Japan’s efforts toward gold convertibility were, in part, impeded by political instability and Japan’s territorial ambitions in China that were not consistent with fixed exchange rate and capital account liberalization.% H7 ^/ L0 Y1 q, I3 H4 e

Previous works (e.g., [Eichengreen, 1992]and [Obstfeld and Taylor, 2003]) argue that the rise of democracy during the interwar period made it more tempting for governments to use discretionary任意的自由决定的 fiscal and monetary policy to maintain employment for newly-enfranchised workers. Interwar Japan provides a good laboratory to assess whether the expansion of suffrage 投票, 投票赞成made the promise to return to the gold standard less credible. Universal manhood suffrage was a contentious好争吵的； 好辩论的； political issue supported by a small number of liberal-minded Diet members.2 Nevertheless, after a Kenseikai-led coalition, which advocated universal manhood suffrage, won a majority in the Lower House election of May 10, 1924 and subsequently seized control of the cabinet from the aristocratic (属于) 贵族的government, the democratic movement gained momentum. In March 1925, the Diet finally passed the universal suffrage bill,which extended voting rights that had been granted exclusively to males aged 25years or older who paid at least 15 yen in annual tax to all male citizens aged25 years or older.

We detect no turning point associated with electoral victory of Kenseikai-led coalition in May 1924, which led to the passage of the suffrage bill a year later. Although a turning point did coincide with the Diet’s approval of universal manhood suffrage in March1925, this is a positive turning point (i.e., yen appreciation), and furthermore is neither economically important nor statistically robust. Thus,in interwar Japan, democratic institutions do not seem to have been the main cause of credibility problems or, perhaps, that financial market participants did not believe them to have been important. This result mirrors that of (Sussman and Yafeh, 2000) and Sussman and Yafeh, 2006 N. Sussman and Y. Yafeh,Institutional reforms, financial development and sovereign debt: Britain1690–1790, Journal of Economic History 66 (2006), pp. 906–935. View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (7)(Sussman and Yafeh, 2006), who find that financial markets do not respond immediately to the announcement of institutional changes that are yet to pass the test of time.36 S" n7 A1 X7 y1 j8 I
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Methodologically, this paper is closely related to a large and active literature that attempts to uncover what contemporaries viewed as turning points based on the movement in asset prices(e.g., Willard et al., 1996, [Frey and Kucher, 2000], [Brown and Burdekin, 2000], [Oosterlinck, 2003], [Burdekin, 2006] and [Waldenstrom and Frey, 2008]). This methodology,although not suitable for explaining the long-run dynamics of asset prices in relation to the underlying 在下(面)的, 下层的, 基础的economic fundamentals, allows us to uncover turning points in the value of yen and to perform a systematic search for a coincidental event that is likely to have had large and immediate effects on the credibility of Japan’s commitment to return to the gold standard. Such an exercise is important, we believe, given widespread interests among macroeconomists and economic historians in the credibility of fixed exchange rate in general and the gold standard in particular.4

This paper also contributes to are cent literature that uses high frequency asset price/expectation data in an attempt to examine the role of political parties in shaping macroeconomic outcome (e.g., [Santa-Clara and Valkanov, 2003] and [Mukherjee and Leblang, 2007], Snowberg et al., 2007). Our results confirm the non-Downsian view that political party and its overall ideology affect economic policy and outcome.

Finally, this paper complements three previous studies on the evolution of macroeconomic policy in Japan duringthe interwar period: (1) a classic study by Patrick (1971) on Japan’s economic difficulty during the interwar period; (2) Ito et al.’s (1993) event study, which  investigates how the Japanese government left the gold standard; and (3) Metzler’s (2006) extensive historiographical study of the gold standard in prewar Japan. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first systematic attempt to determine what contemporaries found to be the key political and economic events along the path to Japan’slong-awaited return to the gold standard.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic: System-level energy efficiency is the greatest barrier to development of the hydrogen economy

The hydrogen economy concept proposes hydrogen is an energy commodity like electricity or gasoline which individuals purchase to carry out their activities and supply energy services. Originally proposed in the early 1970s, the hydrogen economy postulated 假定; 以...为出发点that hydrogen could be generated from a range of energy resources and distributed through transmission networks to provide energy services in a similar way as electricity is currently used (Bockris, 1972; Anon, 1973; Gregory, 1973; Rifkin, 2002). The hydrogen would be generated by renewable resources再生资源 and stored, then converted back to electricity using fuel cells. The hydrogen transport system would function in much the same way as the current system, but would not require imported liquid fossil fuel, would not produce local air pollution and would have lower CO2 emissions.Although hydrogen is currently produced in significant quantities during petrochemical refining and reforming processes, it is primarily used directly as a chemical feedstock n. 原料, for example in production of methanol 【化】甲醇, 木醇and ammonia n.  氨; 氨水; 阿摩尼亚.These applications are not considered components of the hydrogen economy, as the hydrogen is not used for providing an energy service.+ C% d2 B2 j! A& _1 n  Q

The hydrogen economy concept has led to research investment in related sciences and in technology development projects including distributed power, combined heat and power热电连供, back-up power and fuel cell vehicles. The full manifestation of the hydrogen economy vision includes not only freedom from imported oil, but social liberation of consumers who will be empowered to create their own hydrogen at home from solar cells or cheap electricity, store their hydrogen, fuel their own vehicles and generate electricity for their homes. By producing and storing hydrogen locally, people would be able to power the grid at peak times (Vaitheeswaran, 2003).

Pursuit of the hydrogen economy is motivated by several critical issues, energy security and environmental impacts. Commonly cited benefits of using hydrogen gas as an energy commodity are listed below:
• Efficiency—fuel cells have higher theoretical conversion efficiency than internal combustion engines内燃机 or power cycles动力循环 .6 w- d" Q. m8 _; v4 C" o
• Flexibility—a range of renewable and non-renewable energy resources can be utilised for hydrogen production by electrolysis or reforming.* S) z: k% Y' E, c
• Environmental—water is the only by-product of hydrogen conversion either by electrochemical reaction or combustion.
• Energy Storage—hydrogen produced by electrolysis from excess capacity in renewable electricity could be stored.& d$ ~6 W9 B! g
• Security of transport fuel—local energy resources would be used to produce hydrogen, thus reducing economic and political risks from imported oil., x; r9 a/ c' R- `% Q

The vision of a renewable, secure,non-polluting transport fuel is highly attractive in light of 按照 依据political issues and environmental concerns. Public interest, political support and high-profile industrial research involvement have resulted in government research funding in virtually every developed country.

New Zealand policy has been to support hydrogen and fuel cell 燃料电池research with the focus being on “early adoption” of technologies developed in other countries and delivered to the international market. Over the past 8 years, government research funding in this area has increased to just over 13% of the $14.6 million (NZD)energy-related expenditures (MORST, 2006 Ministry of Research Science and Technology (MORST), 2006. Energy Research, Road maps for Science, NZ.MORST, 2006). The research is mostly conducted at Crown Research Institutes (CRIs) and Crown Owned Enterprises, with some projects at universities (MED, 2005; IRL, 2005; FRST, 2008). Recent hydrogen projects include:
• Integration and testing of domestic-scale alkaline fuel cell systems including the development of a continuous carbon dioxide scrubber;
• Investigation into hydrogen and PEM fuel cell systems for remote power supplies, back-up power systems andresidential applications;
• Hydrogen production from renewable sources and from lignite n. 褐煤coal via gasification;
• Materials research in the area of reformer and electrolyser catalysts, high-temperature fuel cell electrolytes,hydrogen membrane separators and hydrogen storage materials.

In addition to domestic research,New Zealand is a member of the International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy and the International Energy Agency (IEA) Hydrogen Implementation Agreement.Although the New Zealand government at the strategic level states “technical issues are likely to prevent hydrogen having anything other than niche uses for the next 25–30 years” (MED, 2007c) research expenditure on the hydrogen economy continues. One of the current research projects involves identifying and overcoming the barriers to implementation of the hydrogen economy in New Zealand (FRST, 2007). Despite policy focus and the significant amount of government expenditure on the hydrogen economy, the benefits of a hydrogen economy to New Zealand have not yet been quantified in any government strategy document or in any of the publications of CRIs. The life cycle assessment of hydrogen compared to electricity has demonstrated that using renewable energy for electric vehicles prevented twice the green house gas emissions as an equivalent hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (Hammerschlag and Mazza, 2005). A thermodynamic analysis of the different concepts for hydrogen generation, transport and storage by Bossel (2006) unequivocally adj. 不含糊的，明白的，毫无疑问的demonstrates that a hydrogen economy “will never make sense”.

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively
adv. 分量上; 数量上examine the operation of the key elements of the energy system for a hydrogen economy within the New Zealand energy context. The hydrogen energy systems proposed in the policy advice document, Energy Scape (CRL Energy Ltd. 2007), will be compared with alternative energy systems. The system analysis will include energy conversion,transmission and energy service demand conversion. The analysis uses either the existing energy infrastructure in New Zealand or a comparable technology model.Hydrogen would be generated through chemical decomposition using some primary energy resource, transported through a distribution system and converted back to electricity to provide an energy service. The key measure of performance for the hydrogen economy is taken as the system-level efficiency, defined as the energy load provided to the end user divided by primary energy resource input.Other potential benefits (such as those listed above) will be discussed, and the utility of the New Zealand governmental expenditure （时间、金钱、劳力等的)支出, 花费, 消费on the hydrogen economy, and future policy directions will be suggested.8 p4 D2 q9 u2 O* O% q0 I! D
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Section 2 of this paper describes New Zealand's consumer demand for energy, highlighting the unsustainable and environmental damaging aspects of New Zealand energy consumption. Section 3 describes the hydrogen energy chains that have been proposed for research and development in New Zealand. Section 4 describes the methodology and assumptions used of the energy chain analysis. Section 5 describes the results of the hydrogen energy chain analysis for New Zealand, and the system-level efficiency compared to the existing or an alternative energy system. Additional benefits provided by the hydrogen economy, such as reduced emissions or the ability to store energy, are described on a case by case basis. Section 6 concludes the paper with analysis of policy implications relevant to New Zealand.2 d/ `7 [3 V) _4 A' _. U3 G+ J, q& n

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic:Empowerment授权; 许可 Zones, neighborhood change and owner-occupied housing% \* J/ j( j( f2 G& ?% w* Z

Winnick(1966) lays out a very strong case against place-based policy. The primary justification n. 认为有理, 认为正当, 理由, for spatially targeted economic development programs lies in the persistence of concentrations 集中物， 集结物； 密集（的东西of poverty, mainly in urban areas. Kain, 1968 John Kain, Housing segregation分离; 分开; 隔离, negro(pl.Negroes)黑人, 具有黑人血统的人(目前带有贬义, 一般用black) employment and metropolitan decentralization, Quarterly Journal of Economics 82 (1968), pp. 175–197. Full Text via CrossRefKain(1968) framed the problem in terms of the spatial mismatch hypothesis(SMH), which posited v. 假定，认为，建议that blacks were prevented from commuting or moving to the suburbs, where their labor was demanded, and that low-skill jobs were prevented from moving into the central city, where the low-skill black population lived.The spatial mismatch of low-skill labor supply and low-skill labor demand causes the location-constrained inner-city residents to experience adverse labor market outcomes. Since that seminal paper, spatially targeted policies have become popular at many levels of government. While the SMH enjoyed several decades of empirical 以经验为根据的, 经验主义的support, more recent work taking into account the endogeneity of residence choice has cast some doubt on the causal relationship between spatial mismatch and poor central city labor market outcomes.2 Whether the SMH holds or not, it is widely accepted by policy-makers and spatially targeted economic incentives can be seen as an attempt to correct for the cost differentials that keep businesses from locating in the inner city.

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Even in the absence of a causal effect of spatial mismatch, local jurisdictions may wish to spur development within their boundaries to increase tax receipts税收收入. It is not far fetched to使某人苏醒 believe that localized tax incentives could be beneficial for local jurisdictions司法权, 管辖权, 审判权, even if they had no effect on the indigenous本地产的, 土生土长的 population. Bartik (1991) reviewed the literature on the effects of local taxes on business activity and found that the elasticity弹力; 弹性 of business activity with respect to local tax rates lays somewhere between − 1 and − 3. If this is true, decreasing local taxes (even in a small section of the jurisdiction) could be revenue-enhancing for local governments.3 These large elasticities suggest that the effects of local tax incentives may be large and that enterprise zones may bean effective policy tool from a local perspective.# u7 g6 m/ @& c+ o$ S# ]( a$ P

Research examining the effects of spatially targeted incentives has concentrated on the various state programs. While many studies have found that enterprise zones have faired well in terms of employment, Boarnet (2001) points to the many methodological pitfalls陷阱, 阴谋, 诱惑 inherent in straight comparisons of zones to non-zone areas. More rigorous严格的; 严肃的; 严厉的 evaluations of the state programs have not been lacking.An extensive review of this literature can be found in Peters and Fisher (2002). They find that while early econometric studies of the effects of state enterprise zones usually found positive results (e.g., [Erickson and Friedman, 1990], [Papke, 1993] and [Papke, 1994]), more recent results have been much less favorable.4 Peters and Fisher offer several possible explanations for this set of findings. They suggest that the tax incentives are not generous enough to overcome the substantial disadvantages associated with the targeted areas. They also suggest that the administration of zones, which often put conditions on the incentives that exist, may reduce their attractiveness.

Bondonio and Greenbaum (2007) suggest that the insignificant net effects mask countervailing 补偿; 抵销; 对抗positive effects on new firms and negative effects on existing firms (who exit the zone), along with a number of other interesting results. Lynch and Zax (in press) look at establishment-level data, finding little effect for the state program in Colorado. They suggest that the benefits of the program likely fall on immobile不能移动的, 不机动的, 固定的 factors like commercial real estate. Landers (2006) finds similar results for the Ohio state program.

The literature examining the effects of the federal Empowerment Zone program is much less developed, but growing. It is important to note that selection into the EZ program differed substantially from selection into state programs. In selecting federal Empowerment Zones, HUD required an application process. Applicant zones were evaluated not only on the demographic and economic “needs” of the zones, but also the expected efficacy of the applicants' planned use of program funds. (Wallace, 2003) and (Wallace, 2004) examines this process, while Greenbaum and Bondonio (2004) examine how the process has changed over the three rounds of the program. (Oakley et al., 2006), (Oakley and Tsao, 2007a) and (Oakley and Tsao, 2007b) use propensity倾向, 爱好, 嗜好, 脾性 score matching,as in much of the recent literature on the state programs, to examine the effect of Chicago's and some other Empowerment Zones on a variety of socio-economic neighborhood outcomes. While they find some localized effects (e.g.on poverty and related variables in the case of Chicago's zone), they characterize the effects as underwhelming. When pooling four zones (in Chicago,Baltimore, Detroit and New York City), the intervention had no significant effects on poverty, unemployment or average household income.% u1 q4 A& m- w: ]# z; l7 j1 a2 a

Although most of the studies mentioned above examine job creation or employment outcomes, our primary variable of interest will be the value of owner-occupied housing in a neighborhood. We will also be examining the effect of EZ status on employment outcomes of neighborhood residents, yet this more traditional variable takes a secondary position in that we examine only the direct effects of the program on employment. This focus makes sense because the Empowerment Zone program is supposed to improve neighborhoods along a variety of dimensions (McCarthy, 1998), not just improve employment outcomes.As such, the general quality of life in a neighborhood should be improved by the program. If the program is successful in making a neighborhood more attractive, the price of housing should increase ([Rosen, 1974] and [Bartik and Smith, 1987]). Our empirical approach allows us to examine the effects of EZ status on many other variables of more traditional concern (employment outcomes, poverty, etc.), but housing values will remain our focus./ n7 S, z: C: X$ \- w9 c* d

Two recent studies that look at the Empowerment Zone program direct effects on a national level are Hanson (2008)and Busso and Kline (2008). Busso and Kline (2008) use propensity score matching techniques to assess the causal, direct effects on a variety of neighborhood characteristics. They find significant, robust and generally positive effects on neighborhood racial makeup, employment, educational attainment poverty and home values. Hanson (2008) uses an instrumental variables approach to address the endogeneity of zone designation. He finds evidence of endogeneity amongst his sample of zone and rejected zone applicants, but is not willing to take a strong position on the final direct effects. When controlling for endogeneity, he finds no statistically significant effect on employment,although he finds very large effects on property values in some specifications.5 C

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic: Commuting, congestion （交通的） 拥挤； (货物的)充斥； (人口)稠密tolls and the structure of the labour market: Optimal congestion pricing in a wage bargaining model

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Congestion is a serious problem in many large urban areas throughout the world. In the US, for example, the Texas Transportation Institute reports very high increases in traffic congestion over the past two decades (Schrank and Lomax, 2002). In Europe, a comparative比较的， 相当的， 还可以的 study of five urban areas, including London, Amsterdam and Brussels, shows a dramatic decline in average speed over the past decade;marginal external congestion costs have been estimated to exceed 1 Euro per kilometre in the most congested cities (De Borger and Proost, 2001). Economists have suggested a large variety of policy instruments to cope with congestion, and the use of some form of congestion pricing has gained prominence突起, 显着, 突出 in the literature (see, among many others, [Arnott et al., 1993], [Verhoef et al., 1995], [Mayeres and Proost, 1997] and [Small and Yan, 2001]).1 Congestion taxes are also high on the political agenda in several countries, and the first examples of actual implementation are available (e.g., Singapore, Trondheim, Stockholm, Oslo and London). In many other cases, road pricing is under serious consideration. In Europe, e.g., this is the case in the Netherlands荷兰 and Germany. Similarly,several US states, including California, Florida and Texas, are considering congestion pricing.2

The most severe congestion problems are typically associated with the journey-to-work, and there is some concern about the employment effects of congestion taxes. Not surprisingly, several papers have looked into this issue. For example, Parry and Bento (2001) focused on the interaction between congestion taxes and outcomes on the labour market. They analyse the implications of a revenue-neutral congestion tax financed by a reduction in the tax on labour. They show that such a tax reform does not necessarily reduce labour supply owing to the feedback effects of congestion. In fact, at relatively low levels of the transport tax, the employment effects of raising the tax are shown to be positive. Calthrop (2001) extends the model by introducing multiple trip purposes (commuting and non-commuting) and analyses in detail the implications of the complementarity互补（性）； 互关性 of commuting with labour supply. More recently, Van Dender (2003)developed a detailed numerical数字的; 用数字表示的; model to study optimal labour and transport taxes, allowing for multiple trip purposes and transport modes. He found empirical support for taxing commuting at a lower rate than non-commuting transport. Finally, both Safirova (2002)and Verhoef (2005)develop general equilibrium平衡(状态, 性, 图, 曲线), 均衡, 均势 models of a mono表示“一”“单一” centric city with endogenous由内部发源 或产生的;【地质】内成的 labour supply. The former numerically analyzes the implications of agglomeration effects and telecommuting for various second-best policies to cope with congestion; the latter studies the welfare effects of cordon charges and kilometre taxes, and carefully compares results to the first-best.

Although these studies have revealed important new insights, they all assume perfectly competitive labour markets. This is less than desirable, especially in a European context, since in most countries wages and employment levels are the result of an explicit bargaining process between unions and employer organisations (see, e.g., Lockwood and Manning,1993). The purpose of this paper is,therefore, to provide a detailed analysis of optimal transport and labour taxes in a wage bargaining environment. 3Indeed, given the close relation between commuting,congestion and the labour market, a relevant question is whether the structure of the labour market itself has implications for the optimal tax treatment of transport and labour markets. For purposes of concreteness具体; 确实, we focus on aright-to-manage setting in which wages are the result of negotiations between firms and a labour union; employment is then determined by the firm,conditional on the negotiated wage. We assume that transport trips consist of both commuting and non-commuting. In this framework, we study the optimal second-best tax problem faced by a budget-constrained benevolent government that cares about the well-being of all its citizens (both the employed and people that, for various reasons, do not work); moreover, it cares about private sector profits. It uses taxes on transport and on labour as the main instruments. We consider both the case where transport taxes cannot be differentiated according to trip purpose, and the case of optimal tax differentiation between commuting and other transport.

We obtain several interesting results. First, using two different (but admittedly highly stylised) labour market settings, we show the relevance 关联; 中肯; 适宜 of the structure of the labour market for optimal taxation of road transport. Where as competitive labour market conditions produce Ramsey-type taxes, wage bargaining implies that optimal transport taxes strongly depend on union preferences.Second, wage bargaining implies that exogenous外部发生的, 外源的; 外长的; 外来的 increases in congestion levels and in transport taxes raise negotiated wages and reduce employment levels.Third, when taxes cannot be differentiated according to trip purpose, we show that the optimal transport tax positively depends on the impact of congestion on negotiated wages, and negatively on the wage effects of the congestion tax itself. Using a specific but standard specification for union preferences, we find that the transport tax exceeds the marginal external congestion cost to the extent that transport flows include demand by people who are not currently active on the labour market. Finally, if taxes can be differentiated according to trip purpose, commuting subsidies — in the sense of lower transport taxes on commuting trips than on non-commuting transport — may be justified if at least some part of the transport flows are from people that are inactive on the labour market. This allows shifting the tax burden away from the employed. Moreover,in this case the optimal congestion tax on commuters is strictly below the marginal external cost.

This paper is related to several strands海滨, 海滩; 湖滨; 河岸#绳﹑线之一股; 绳; 线 of the literature. First, relaxing the assumptions underlying the earlier transport literature (see the references given above) allows us to precisely identify the role of the labour market implications of congestion and congestion taxes for the optimal tax structure.Second, the paper fits in with the growing literature on the implications of externality taxation in bargaining models of the labour market (see, e.g., [Koskela et al., 1998], [Schneider, 1997], [Holmlund and Kolm, 2000], [Bayindir-Upmann andRaith, 2003]and [Schöb, 2005]). Unlike these models, we explicitly allow the externality to affect the outcome of the bargaining process. Third, the paper contributes to the literature on the potential desirability of ‘subsidising’ commuters, in the sense of allowing tax deductibility of commuting expenses.4 Economic arguments in favour include the presence of distortionary or suboptimal未达最佳标准的， labour taxes ([Wrede, 2000] and [Van Dender, 2003]), the mobility of firms and households in a spatial economy (Wrede, 2001), and the distribution of landownership across income classes combined with the location of different income groups in an urban area (Borck and Wrede, 2005). This paper reconsiders the issue in a wage bargaining framework, capturing the close connection between congestion, commuting and employment.

The paper is organised as follows.To set the stage, we start in Section 2 with a very simple optimal tax problem of labour and transport markets in a world without congestion. This allows us to illustrate and intuitively explain the potential importance of the structure of the labour market for the optimal tax structure. In Section 3 we then turn to the basic model analysed in this paper. We study optimal labour and transport taxes in a wage bargaining model; both commuting and non-commuting transport contribute to congestion. The union cares about both its employed and unemployed members, the firm cares about profit. We derive and interpret the optimal tax structure for the case of uniform transport taxes across trip motives. Moreover, we provide a brief comparison of the results with those derived under competitive labour market conditions. In Section 4, we analyse optimal tax differentiation between commuting and non-commuting transport. Section 5 relaxes some of the strong assumptions underlying the model and discusses several extensions. A final section summarises 概括 the main findings.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic: Ranking differentially expressed genes from Affymetrix gene expression data: methods with reproducibility重复能力, 再现性, sensitivity, and specificity
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Abstract

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Background: To identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from microarray data, users of the Affymetrix Gene Chip system need to select both a preprocessing加工前的 algorithm n.【数】算法; 规则系统; 演段 to obtain expression level measurements and a way of ranking genes to obtain the most plausible candidates. We recently recommended suitable combinations of a preprocessing algorithm and gene ranking method that can be used to identify DEGs with a higher level of sensitivity and specificity. However, in addition to these recommendations, researchers also want to know which combinations enhance reproducibility./ Q# a0 K" `5 P5 t! T! C9 H# S& ]9 h0 ^

Results: We compared eight conventional methods for ranking genes: weighted average difference (WAD),average difference (AD), fold change (FC), rank products (RP), moderated t statistic(modT), significance analysis of microarrays (samT), shrinkage t statistic(shrinkT), and intensity based moderated t statistic (ibmT) with six preprocessing algorithms (PLIER, VSN, FARMS, multimgMOS (mmgMOS), MBEI, and GCRMA). A total of 36 real experimental data sets was evaluated on the basis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a measure for both sensitivity and specificity. We found that the RP method performed well for VSN-, FARMS-, MBEI-, and GCRMA-preprocessed data, and the WAD method performed well for mmgMOS preprocessed data. Our analysis of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC) project's data sets showed that the FC-based gene ranking methods (WAD, AD, FC, and RP) had a higher level of reproducibility: The percentages of overlapping与...交搭; 叠盖住 genes (POGs) across different sites for the FC-based methods were higher overall than those for the t-statistic-based methods (modT,samT, shrinkT, and ibmT). In particular, POG values for WAD were the highest overall among the FC based methods irrespective of the choice of preprocessing algorithm.  P& p, Z: ?5 u/ [# Y) g

Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that to increase sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility in microarray analyses, we need to select suitable combinations of preprocessing algorithms and gene ranking methods. We recommend the use of FC-based methods,in particular RP or WAD.- n6 \+ H# k& f! l9 k* g
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Background

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Microarray微矩阵 analysis is often used to detect differentially差别地，区别地 expressed genes (DEGs) under different conditions. As there are considerable differences [1,2] in how well it performs, choosing the best method of ranking these genes is important.Furthermore, Affymetrix GeneChip users need to choose a preprocessing algorithm from a number of competitors in order to obtain expression-level measurements [3].

We recently reported with another group that there are suitable combinations of preprocessing algorithms and gene ranking methods [1,2]. We evaluated three preprocessing algorithms, MAS [4], RMA [5], and DFW [6], and eight gene ranking methods, WAD [1], AD, FC, RP [7], modT [8], samT [9], shrinkT [10], and ibmT[11], by using a total of 38 data sets (including 36 real experimental datasets)[1]. Meanwhile, Pearson [2] evaluated nine preprocessing algorithms, MAS [4],RMA [5], DFW [6], MBEI [12], CP [13], PLIER[14], GCRMA [15], mmgMOS [16], and FARMS[17], and five gene ranking methods, modT [8], FC, a standard t-test,cyberT [18], and PPLR [19], by using only one artificial 'spike-in' dataset,the Golden Spike dataset [13]. 6 o, ^# W+ O2 I9 E' ^, S+ j

When were-evaluated the two reports using the common algorithms and methods we found that suitable gene ranking methods for each of the three preprocessing algorithms, i.e., MAS, RMA, and DFW, converge会聚； 聚合； 集中于一点； 辐合 to the same: Combinations of MAS and modT (MAS/modT), RMA/FC, and DFW/FC can thus be recommended. However, the final conclusions for the original reports are understandably different: Our recommendations [1] are MAS/WAD, RMA/FC, and DFW/RP, while Pearson [2] recommends mmgMOS/PPLR, GCRMA/FC, and so on. This difference is mainly because fewer preprocessing algorithms were evaluated in our previous study [1]. * H3 D9 O0 B5 \# K$ T/ I! c
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We investigated suitable gene ranking methods for each of six preprocessing algorithms: MBEI,VSN [20], PLIER, GCRMA, FARMS, and mmgMOS. We also investigated the best combination of a preprocessing algorithm and gene ranking method using another evaluation metric, i.e., the percentage of overlapping genes (POG), proposed by the MAQC study [21].

Most authors of methodological papers have made claims that their methods have a greater area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values, i.e., both high sensitivity and specificity [1,2]. However, reproducibility is rarely mentioned[21]. A good method should produce high POG values, i.e., those indicating reproducibility as well as high AUC ones, i.e., those for sensitivity and specificity. We will discuss suitable combinations of preprocessing algorithms and gene ranking methods.3 t; |% E8 ^5 ^; a* r. l
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Conclusion

We evaluated the performance of combinations between six preprocessing algorithms and eight gene ranking methods in terms of the AUC value, i.e., both sensitivity and specificity, and the POG one, i.e., reproducibility. Our comprehensive evaluation confirmed the importance of using suitable combinations of preprocessing algorithms and gene ranking methods.

Overall, two FC-based gene ranking methods (RP and WAD) can be recommended. Our current and previous results indicate that any of the following combinations, RMA/RP,DFW/RP, PLIER/RP, VSN/RP, FARMS/RP, MBEI/ RP, GCRMA/RP, MAS/WAD, and mmgMOS/WAD, enhances both sensitivity and specificity, and also that using the WAD method enhances reproducibility.

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Methods

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The raw data(Affymetrix CEL files) for Datasets 3–38 were obtained from the Gene ExpressionOmnibus (GEO) website [32]. All analysis was performed using R (ver. 2.7.2)[33] and Bioconductor [34]. The versions of R libraries used in this study areas follows: plier (ver. 1.10.0), vsn (3.2.1), farms (1.3),puma (1.6.0), affy (1.16.0) [35], gcrma (2.10.0), RankProd(2.12.0) [36], st (1.0.3) [10], limma (2.14.7) [8], ROC (1.14.0).The main functions in the R libraries are as follows: justPlier for PLIER,vsnrma for VSN, q.farms for FARMS, mmgmos for mmgMOS, expresso for MBEI (PM only model), gcrma for GCRMA, mas5 for MAS, rmafor RMA, expresso and the R codes available in [37] for DFW, RP forRP, modt.stat for modT, sam.stat for samT, shrinkt.stat forshrinkT, IBMT for ibmT [38], and pumaComb and pumaDE forPPLR [19].

Since the MBEI and MAS expression measures do not output logged values, signal intensities under 1 in those preprocessed data were set to 1 so that the logarithm of the data could be found. Logged values smaller than 0 in PLIER-, VSN-, FARMS-, mmgMOS-,and GCRMA-preprocessed data were set to 0. For reproducible research, we made the R code for analyzing Dataset 4 (GEO ID: GSM189708–189713) available as the additional file [see Additional file 3]. The R codes for the other datasets are available upon request.

The raw data forthe MAQC datasets were obtained from the MAQC website [39]. The evaluation based on POG was done with 12 datasets produced by the MAQC project [21] inwhich two RNA sample types and two mixtures of the original samples were used:Sample A, a universal human reference RNA; Sample B, a human brain reference RNA;Sample C, which consisted of 75 and 25% of Sample A and B respectively; andSample D, which consisted of 25 and 75% of Sample A and B respectively. Fivereplicate experiments for each of the four sample types at six independent testsites (Sites 1–6) were conducted, and, thus there are 20 files at each site.The data preprocessing was performed at each site. The application of the gene rankingmethods was independently performed for comparisons of "Sample A versusB" and "Sample C versus D".

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Today's Topic:The Latitudinaladj.  纬度的 Effect of Corotating Interaction Regionson Galactic Cosmic Rays,
1. Introduction+ X0 x! Z3 j8 i4 v8 a4 y9 B
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) gyrating旋转; 不停地转动 along open solar magnetic field lines are scattered by irregularities on these field lines with scale length comparable to the GCR gyroradius. This scattering内散射, 向内散射 inhibits GCRs from禁止，阻止 moving towards the inner heliosphere日光层 by forcing a random walkor slow diffusion process. Additional modulation调整, 调节; mechanisms are the advective adj. 对流的
effect of the supersonic 超声波的; 超音速的solar wind, which carries the frozen-inmagnetic field,the adiabatic cooling effect of the radial放射(式)的, 辐射(状)的 expansion of the wind, and the coherent influence of large-scale field gradient and curvature【数】曲率, 曲度; 弧度 “drift” effects., G7 B1 J$ M0 A7 g! K- s- o

Observational studies观察研究 have recently shown that the flux of GCRs could be largely regulated by the evolution of the footprint location of open solar magnetic field lines (Cliverand Ling, 2001; Wang, Sheeley, and Rouillard, 2006;Rouillard, 2007). From our understanding of the solar corona and the evolution of open magnetic flux on the Sun (Wang, Hawley, and Sheeley, 1996;Fisk and Schwadron, 2001) it was suggested that the occurrence of isolated coronal holes(CHs), where these field lines are rooted  生了根的; 根深蒂固的; 固定的during solar maximum, could be a controlling factor for shielding the inner heliosphere from GCRs (Wang,Sheeley, and Rouillard, 2006; Rouillard, 2007). These coronal holes give fast solar wind outflow流出; 流出物; 流出口 and hence control the formation of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) at the interface of the fast streams and the slow solar wind.The evolution of CIRs is reasonably well understood following intensive analytical (Lee, 2001) and numerical work (Pizzo and Gosling, 1994).Their relevance to GCR shielding has been demonstrated observationally (Heberand Burger, 1999) and theoretically (Kóta and Jokipii, 1991; Kóta,1999, and references therein). The shock waves and compression压缩， 压紧； 浓缩 regions(in which the interplanetary magnetic field is enhanced) ahead of CIRs are thought to be the main source of GCR modulation (Kóta, 1999). In the case of a single CIR, modulation models predict a rather limited effect and this is confirmed by observations of GCR decreases at Earth of only a few percent following transient 短促的, 片刻的passages of isolated CIRs. GCRs are thought to recover between two successive接连的; 相继的; 继[连]续的 CIRs, in particular in the rarefied稀化的; 稀疏的 fast-flow regions behind the turbulent汹涌的; 狂暴的; leading edge: The faster wind speed results in straighter field lines, which are likely to contain fewer fluctuations able to scatter GeV particles颗粒, 微粒; . The variation in the solar wind speed is substantially smaller than that in the magnetic field (which can change by an order of magnitude) so that diffusion effects from scattering by field irregularities are thought to predominate (Kóta, 1999).Particle drifts will be reduced by the enhanced turbulence within the CIRs but will be faster in the weak field between CIRs. Drift streamlines largely flow around CIRs; thus the global effect of an individual CIR remains limited beyond the region of compressed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

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The study of solar-minimum GCR modulation produced by single CIRs is easier to carryout and provides very useful information for studying the propagation繁殖, 增殖 of energetic charged particles带电粒子 through the heliosphere, which is fundamental to gaining understanding of the 11-year modulation. We here present observation son the evolution of GCRs during the second half of the year 1996 near solar minimum when simultaneous observations were made of the solar photosphere and corona by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)spacecraft, of the interplanetary medium at 1 AU by a combination of satellites(inter calibrated by the OMNI team), and of the flux of GCRs at Earth by a network of neutron monitors. Most studies of CIR/CME effects on galactic cosmic rays have compared GCR variations to solar wind speed features in the ecliptic(Morfill, Richter, and Scholer, 1979)and have not directly considered the latitudinal dimension of CIR/CME.7 F1 D0 t# ]2 k1 K6 v7 u, x

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Firstly,we show that SOHO coronal 冠的； 花冠的images and solar magnetograms help provide a clear picture of the state of the solar corona between Carrington rotations (CRs)1912 to 1918. Secondly, we show that the most obvious coronal feature seen from Earth at that time is not responsible for the observed recurring galactic cosmic ray decreases. Thirdly, we use numerical modelling of the inner (<2.5Rs)and outer corona (>2.5Rs) to investigate the role of the morphology of CIRs on GCR shielding during this period. Using these three parts, we investigate the consequence of an isolated increase in the open solar flux with low-latitude footprints on GCRs. 7 W- d) i1 j0 o( m

The largest active region of a photospheric光球，光球层的 activity nest that lasted from May to November 1996 emerged in July (NOAA 7978) at latitude ψ =−10◦ and Carrington longitude φ = 259◦, while the Sun was near its minimum activity. This active region(identified subsequently as NOAA 07981 and NOAA 07986 in CRs 1912 and 1913,respectively) triggered the formation of extensions of both the northern and southern polar coronal holes. Wang et al. (1997a)described the evolution of the photospheric and lower coronal field from CRs1908 (starting 4 March) to 1913 (starting 22 August) using a potential field source surface (PFSS) extrapolation of the photospheric flux recorded by solar magnetographs.Wang et al. showed that the emergence of photospheric field during CR1911 led to the enhancement of the original field distribution and its associated equatorial dipole field, which led to the widening of the streamerbelt. The associated enhancement of the flux of open magnetic field lines located at low latitudes (<45◦) is shown in Figure 1b. This low-latitude open flux was quantified by using the PFSS method and consists of open field line footprints, which have no symmetric distribution对称分布 relative to the solar rotation axis and are therefore part of the non-axisymmetric field (Wang, Sheeley, and Rouillard, 2006).Associated with this event, a series of large recurrent decreases were seen in the flux of GCRs, measured by neutron monitors around the globe (Bromage,Browning, and Clegg, 2001). The data from the Climax neutron monitor are plotted in Figure 1a.Bromage, Browning, and Clegg showed that this recurrent variation occurred while there was a large extension of the northern polar CH, triggered by the emergence of the active region. Moreover, they showed that the source of the main recurrent GCR decrease could not have been forced by this northern polarcoronal hole extension; rather, it was forced by probable很可能发生的; 很有希望的; turbulence in the streamer belt. Their analysis is re-examined here and carried further.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Why Invention and Innovation Diverge/ {' a8 W  N3 v# ]3 H- x, o- y5 P
DOI:10.1145/1536616.1536619/ j6 o. ?* F1 X" C. l) E

My compliments on the article“One Laptop Per Child: Vision vs. Reality”by Kenneth L. Kraemer et al. (June 2009). It is incredibly valuable for the ACM community to understand the profound difference between invention (which OLPC certainly is as both concept and product) and innovation (the widespread adoption of new mores). How and why political, economic, cultural, and sociological factors influence, if not trump出王牌赢牌, great ideas, concepts, and products is pertinent相关的, 切题的, 中肯的 with OLPC, especially in light of按照，依据 the project’s public visibility. 0 L( x9 u, Z# f" e7 P2 z) }! ]

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MediaX@Stanford University (like the MIT Media Lab) encourages the study of how technological solutions affect individuals, organizations, and institutions. We especially encourage small research projects, like OLPC, that pursue “grand ideas” through experimental discovery. Last fall, we hosted Kentaro Toyama, lab director of Microsoft Research India, on “Computing for Socio-Economic Development” in which he described work prompted刺激, 鼓动; 怂恿,  by a student at Stanford’s Center for Innovative Education. Toyama’s lab bought and placed several hundred XO laptop computers in Bangalore elementary schools, encouraging students to take them home per Nicholas Negroponte’s hope of inspiring parental involvement. To his dismay, many of the machines were stolen and put on the black market where they were worth six months of discretionary family income and clearly too much of a temptation.

The lab concluded that a mouse, at $2 each, had useful attributes属性, 特质: worth nothing on the black market without the XO, could have initials carved onto it without affecting its operation, and inexpensive enough for educators to buy. The Microsoft team designed a “mouse docking station” that could accommodate up to 10 mice, color-coding each cursor on screen so students would require far fewer machines. Despite initial worry that the students would be confused by the multiple cursors光标, experiments found no particular difficulty with this new operating mode.

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Learning could now truly begin. Working in classrooms much larger than those in the U.S., Bangalore’s teachers are seldom able to help individual students even if they get stuck, though classmates quickly recognize when their fellow students need help and come to their aid. An early discovery with the XO was that students mastered arithmetic算术, 计算 in one-third the time and retained vocabulary drills操练; 训练; 演习 far longer. Research also found that boys, as well as girls, begin to exhibit cooperative rather than competitive behavior in gamesr, e( and problem-solving sessions on the machines.

Microsoft Labs built a simple reference model—MultiPoint, available as a software development kit—that has since been adapted for teachers in the U.S. and anecdotally found to have similar educational value (http://www.microsoft. com/unlimitedpotential/TransformingEducation/MultiPoint.mspx).

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MediaX researchers often find analogous dichotomies between designer functionality and the intended user community at a more systemic level than those usually considered by HCI designers. These techniques, coupled with Kraemer et al.’s excellent coverage, provide additional skills and approaches to the ACM design community.9 _$ }$ N- u) A$ i+ M! ?) I

Charles House (past president of ACM),
Stanford, CA" Q1 B! ]  J! {9 }- d: k
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Technologists have a moral duty to ensure that their activities contribute to solving the problems at hand and not diminish other, better, solutions. In this light, the analysis by Kenneth L. Kraemer et al. (June 2009) was helpful in articulating some of the dangers that befall 发生; 降临; 降临于technology projects in sub- Saharan Africa where establishing a vibrant振[震、颤]动的, 振荡的 education system in rural areas is a wholly完全地, 全然地; different proposition from its counterpart in urban areas. Schools even a few kilometers from a large town have markedly less-developed infrastructure than those in town. The result is that education often must wait until children are old enough to walk those kilometers to the nearest school.$ S+ ?2 F& i$ x% ^9 B
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Try to imagine what OLPC project success would look like in such a context. A typical rural school is constructed with great commitment by the local community but consists of only mud walls, tin roof, and muddy floors. It has a thousand students but no running water, electricity, sanitation公共卫生, 环境卫生, or food service or even enough pens and paper. It is staffed by surprisingly dedicated but inadequately trained, underpaid, and undervalued teachers. Now imagine that the same school receives a large stock of laptops (even if specially designed) that promise a pedagogical教育学的; 教学法的 revolution. I find such a prospect laughably unrealistic.

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It was therefore surprising to read that initial OLPC trials should be conducted in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, through a large-scale deployment (50,000 XOs), presumably much of it in rural areas. This imposes on the government an unrealistic expectation to establish a technical-support infrastructure, satellite distribution of digital books, and large-scale teacher-training program. This is a country that invests heavily in improving school enrollment and dramatic university-expansion programs but has difficulty ensuring enough textbooks for its children.

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All this is in marked contrast to another initiative emanating from MIT. The online open courseware initiative is well known; less well known is the initiative to put open courseware onto hard drives for distribution to eligible educational institutions with poor Internet connectivity. How helpful it would have been if more MIT professors included adequate reading materials in their open courseware offerings." l) |0 R: X8 }1 J" k3 C3 z) c

OLPC appears to give priority to a technocratic solution to what is essentially a social problem. Technology to support pre-service and in-service teacher education is a much more urgent priority. Incremental 增加[量, 值]的, 逐渐增长的advances in technology infrastructure must be used to develop technical skills. That way, the development of teacher and support-technician skills would support future possible large-scale computer deployments. Imagine how different OLPC implementation would be if it were instead conceived as “one laptop per teacher.”2 N- b! F' x0 w5 m, K# \

Julian M. Bass, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Radio for Responders
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As multiband radio for public safety proceeds, digital spectrum for it still lags2 v. 走得慢; 延迟;
BY LARRY GREENEMEIER2 e" Q; ~/ b2 Q! P9 \5 L6 o
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One lesson in the 9/11 attacks eight years ago was the importance of police officers, firefighters and other first responders being able to communicate with one another. Many died because they did not get the call to evacuate from the World Trade Center towers that were about to collapse. To tackle this problem, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security will begin a pilot program this month to test multiband radios designed to let responders communicate across a number of different radio frequencies. Meanwhile a long-touted长期吹捧 nationwide public safety broadband network宽带网络, made possible by the freeing of broadcast spectrum in the country’s switch to digital television this past June, continues to stagnate.6 V3 c% c  c4 h6 J& _6 y/ h

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The radios of public safety agencies currently operate on separate, discrete frequencies, making it impossible for a firefighter, for example, to communicate with a police officer. “There’s no single band单波段 with enough room for all of the public responders,” says David Boyd, director of command, control and interoperability in the Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate. As a result, public safety agencies have been forced to spread their signals throughout the four different frequency bands available to them—namely, at megahertz frequencies of 150, 400, 700 and 800.9 z3 F1 V, R. ?/ p- }. Q0 z
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Several manufacturers are developing multiband radios, but currently only a version made by Thales Communications in Clarksburg, Md., meets criteria set by Homeland Security—that is, the device is roughly the same size and weight as the radios that police and other responders carry today, and it costs no more than $5,000, similar to the high-end single-band radios now on the market, Boyd says. (They must also work with an auxiliary power pack that can be charged by a battery.)

This summer the security personnel人员, 职员 of several organizations—including Amtrak along its Northeast Corridor, the Metro Area Transit Authority in Washington, D.C., the 2010 U.S. Olympic Security Planning Committee and 11 others—began using the Thales radio as part of Homeland Security’s program. Each agency will evaluate the radio in the field through pilot tests lasting at least 30 days, with the government publishing the results early next year, Boyd says. This test is actually the last of a three-phase program to determine the radio’s viability; it already passed a lab test and a nonemergency demonstration on May 2 at the Kentucky Derby.

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Although the radio voice-communication part of the public safety efforts is proceeding, first responders will not have an emergency broadband data network anytime soon. The 700-megahertz band (actually covering 698 to 806 megahertz), freed up from the switch to digital TV, has space designated by the Federal Communications Commission for data. Called the D block, it will be used for a national wireless public safety broadband network to enable local, state and federal emergency responders to send text messages and large amounts of data, such as digital images and streaming video. “Public safety doesn’t currently have this broadband ability,” Boyd remarks.  @1 d2 _& g. ]" g

But the move to make use of the D block has hit some snags凸牙; 突出物, 障碍. Because establishing a nationwide network on it would be costly, the government wants a public-private partnership 合伙, 合股 to develop the block. The proposed wireless broadband network would be built and used by both public-sector emergency responders and private-sector businesses, which would also be able to license part of the network for commercial purposes.

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Although the FCC succeeded in selling the right to use the old television spectrum in an auction last year (it raked in $20 billion, twice as much as it expected), it ultimately refused to sell a D block license because it had not been offered enough money by any of D block’s suitors, Boyd says. Harlin McEwen, chair of the Public Safety Spectrum Trust (PSST) Corporation—formed in 2007 by the FCC to work with industry to develop the national wireless public safety broadband network—gave a more pointed reason: the companies bidding for the space wanted priority access to the D block space over first responders, even in times of emergency.* `" w  ?; g- P% ^7 s

Without a proper suitor起诉者, 求婚者, 请愿者 and with a new FCC chair, Julius Genachowski, confirmed only in late June, McEwen says the FCC has delayed bidding for the D block indefinitely. He plans to meet with Genachowski to discuss the agency officials’ options for the D block. “They can schedule another D block auction with the rule that the winner has to work with the PSST,” McEwen says. “Or they can auction the block without restriction, which they are unlikely to do.”9 z$ Q9 J* B8 p# m

Although broadband data access is important during emergencies, some experts do not think that the delays in its implementation will seriously undermine public safety. Voice communication will continue to be the most important lifeline among responders, Boyd states, which is why the Homeland Security’s upcoming multiband pilot program is so important. “Data are not going to replace voice as the fundamental emergency communication, because voice is interactive in a way that text will never be,” he notes as an example. “In environments where you have to use your eyes and hands for other things, you have to be able to talk.”

tequilawineUID: 2702008

And man made life
Artificial life, the stuff of dreams and nightmares, has arrived May 20th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

TO CREATE life is the prerogative of gods. Deep in the human psyche, whatever the rational pleadings of physics and chemistry, there exists a sense that biology is different, is more than just the sum of atoms moving about and reacting with one another, is somehow infused with a divine spark, a vital essence. It may come as a shock, then, that mere mortals have now made artificial life.

Craig Venter and Hamilton Smith, the two American biologists who unravelled the first DNA sequence of a living organism (a bacterium) in 1995, have made a bacterium that has an artificial genome—creating a living creature with no ancestor (see article). Pedants may quibble that only the DNA of the new beast was actually manufactured in a laboratory; the researchers had to use the shell of an existing bug to get that DNA to do its stuff. Nevertheless, a Rubicon has been crossed. It is now possible to conceive of a world in which new bacteria (and eventually, new animals and plants) are designed on a computer and then grown to order.

That ability would prove mankind’s mastery over nature in a way more profound than even the detonation of the first atomic bomb. The bomb, however justified in the context of the second world war, was purely destructive. Biology is about nurturing and growth. Synthetic biology, as the technology that this and myriad less eye-catching advances are ushering in has been dubbed, promises much. In the short term it promises better drugs, less thirsty crops (see article), greener fuels and even a rejuvenated chemical industry. In the longer term who knows what marvels could be designed and grown?

On the face of it, then, artificial life looks like a wonderful thing. Yet that is not how many will view the announcement. For them, a better word than “creation” is “tampering”. Have scientists got too big for their boots? Will their hubris bring Nemesis in due course? What horrors will come creeping out of the flask on the laboratory bench?

Such questions are not misplaced—and should give pause even to those, including this newspaper, who normally embrace advances in science with enthusiasm. The new biological science does have the potential to do great harm, as well as good. “Predator” and “disease” are just as much part of the biological vocabulary as “nurturing” and “growth”. But for good or ill it is here. Creating life is no longer the prerogative of gods.

Children of a lesser god

It will be a while, yet, before life forms are routinely designed on a laptop. But this will come. The past decade, since the completion of the Human Genome Project, has seen two related developments that make it almost inevitable. One is an extraordinary rise in the speed, and fall in the cost, of analysing the DNA sequences that encode the natural “software” of life. What once took years and cost millions now takes days and costs thousands. Databases are filling up with the genomes of everything from the tiniest virus to the tallest tree.
These genomes are the raw material for synthetic biology. First, they will provide an understanding of how biology works right down to the atomic level. That can then be modelled in human-designed software so that synthetic biologists will be able to assemble new constellations of genes with a reasonable presumption that they will work in a predictable way. Second, the genome databases are a warehouse that can be raided for whatever part a synthetic biologist requires.

The other development is faster and cheaper DNA synthesis. This has lagged a few years behind DNA analysis, but seems to be heading in the same direction. That means it will soon be possible for almost anybody to make DNA to order, and dabble in synthetic biology.
That is good, up to a point. Innovation works best when it is a game that anyone can play. The more ideas there are, the better the chance some will prosper. Unfortunately and inevitably, some of those ideas will be malicious. And the problem with malicious biological inventions—unlike, say, guns and explosives—is that once released, they can breed by themselves.

Biology really is different

The Home Brew computing club launched Steve Jobs and Apple, but similar ventures produced a thousand computer viruses. What if a home-brew synthetic-biology club were accidentally to launch a real virus or bacterium? What if a terrorist were to do the same deliberately?

The risk of accidentally creating something bad is probably low. Most bacteria opt for an easy life breaking down organic material that is already dead. It doesn’t fight back. Living hosts do. Creating something bad deliberately, whether the creator is a teenage hacker, a terrorist or a rogue state, is a different matter. No one now knows how easy it would be to turbo-charge an existing human pathogen, or take one that infects another type of animal and assist its passage over the species barrier. We will soon find out, though.

It is hard to know how to address this threat. The reflex, to restrict and ban, has worked (albeit far from perfectly) for more traditional sorts of biological weapons. Those, though, have been in the hands of states. The ubiquity of computer viruses shows what can happen when technology gets distributed.

Thoughtful observers of synthetic biology favour a different approach: openness. This avoids shutting out the good in a belated attempt to prevent the bad. Knowledge cannot be unlearned, so the best way to oppose the villains is to have lots of heroes on your side. Then, when a problem arises, an answer can be found quickly. If pathogens can be designed by laptop, vaccines can be, too. And, just as “open source” software lets white-hat computer nerds work against the black-hats, so open-source biology would encourage white-hat geneticists.

Regulation—and, especially, vigilance—will still be needed. Keeping an eye out for novel diseases is sensible even when such diseases are natural. Monitoring needs to be redoubled and co-ordinated. Then, whether natural or artificial, the full weight of synthetic biology can be brought to bear on the problem. Encourage the good to outwit the bad and, with luck, you keep Nemesis at bay.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

The government is not being serious enough about cutting the budget deficitMay 20th 2010 | PARIS | From The Economist print edition

SO FAR, France’s creditworthiness has not come under as much scrutiny as that of other euro members. French bonds trade at a small premium to German ones. The (French) IMF head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has said “there is no real risk for France, nor for Germany.” Yet in reality France’s public finances are closer to Greece’s than to Germany’s. And rating agencies are watching pension reform for evidence of political will to get a grip.

The economy has weathered the recession quite well, enjoying four quarters in a row of (albeit weak) GDP growth. But the recession has battered the public finances. The budget deficit will be 8% of GDP this year, up from 3.3% in 2008. Although less dreadful adj. 可怕的 than Spain and Greece, this is much worse than Germany (see chart). France’s public debt is expected to hit 84% of GDP in 2010—nowhere near Greece’s but higher than Germany’s and Spain’s.

President Nicolas Sarkozy has trimmed spending, notably by not replacing one in two retiring civil servants. But there is no mention of pay freezes, let alone cuts; and talk of rigueur (austerity) remains taboo. France is betting on GDP growth, which it thinks will reach 2.5% from 2011, to get the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013. The European Commission has already said this is wildly optimistic, noting “substantial risks” that the deficit in 2011-13 will be worse than forecast. The commission says debt could hit 95% of GDP by 2020.

No French government has balanced its budget in 30 years. There have been plenty of dire warnings, and not just from outsiders. In “Our Children Will Hate Us”, two French authors deplored the debt that the older generation has piled up for its offspring. A 2005 government-commissioned report by Michel Pébereau caused a stir with its shock forecasts of swelling debt, but it was quickly forgotten.

France badly needs to show it can stick to its word. This is why Mr Sarkozy’s pension reform, which he wants to push through by the autumn, is critical. The retirement age is only 60, next to 65 in Germany. Generous pensions (civil servants get 75% of their final six-months’ salary) are mainly paid for by current workers. The average Frenchman spends 24 years in retirement, against an OECD average of 18 years. The upshot is a pension deficit that, even on official forecasts, could reach

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Not an unmitigated adj. 未缓和的, 纯然的 tactical successMay 20th 2010 | KOSHKAKY | From The Economist print edition

THE nightmare began with gunfire. Residents of this poor village in eastern Afghanistan were jolted awake by what sounded like shooting from their guards at thieves outside their compound. Moments later, they say, soldiers spilled over the walls in a flurry n. 疾风, 慌张, 飓风v. 使恐慌; 使狼狈; 激动; 慌张
of grenades and bullets that left at least eight people dead, including a father and his four sons. The American army said the raid’s targets were militants, including a Taliban sub-commander, who was killed. Two insurgents were captured, it said, along with automatic rifles and “communications equipment”.

It was the second deadly night raid in Surkh Rod district in as many weeks. And if the finger-pointing is predictable, so is the fallout. Within hours a mob of hundreds of neighbours and relations filled the streets, wielding torches and throwing stones, to chants of “Death to America” and “Long Live the Taliban”. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, and Gul Agha Sherzai, a former warlord n. 军阀, 督军 from Kandahar who now governs Nangarhar province, were similarly cursed. Some protesters smashed windows in an attempt to storm local-government offices. The police shot back, killing at least one more person.

The number of civilians killed in air strikes has fallen since General Stanley McChrystal took command of international forces in Afghanistan last year. But there has been a rise in casualties in “night raids n. 突然袭击，突击搜捕，劫掠v. 劫掠，攫取，突击搜捕，袭击”. Of nearly 600 civilian deaths attributed to foreign troops last year, raids accounted for more than half. An errant special-forces raid in Paktia province on February 12th killed an Afghan police officer, his brother, two pregnant women and a teenage girl celebrating a birth. A rare formal apology was made.

Even when no one is killed, the trauma of doors being kicked down and women exposed to strangers is seen as a grave affront. Domestic raids deepen the anger and distrust felt by ordinary Afghans. General McChrystal noted as much in January, when he issued a new directive to avoid needless casualties and heavy-handed intrusions. Afghan troops would take the lead on missions and local elders were to be consulted in advance “whenever possible”. The guidelines have made regular soldiers more cautious. But they do not apply to special-forces units. Engaged in “black” operations to disrupt the Taliban leadership structure, they worry consultation might jeopardisevt. 使 ... 遭遇危险，危及their campaign. Dozens of commanders are said to have been captured or killed ahead of a southern offensive soon to be mounted around Kandahar. But the tactical impact of their operations has to be weighed against the cost fatal mistakes exact in local goodwill.

Koshkaky is just 14km (9 miles) west of Jalalabad, a calm city firmly in the hands of the government. Nasratullah Arsala, head of the provincial council, insists the area is “Taliban-free”. Local residents readily check off the raid victims’ names and ages. Witnesses say that after the assault they were interrogated for hours and stripped of mobile phones and the guns they keep to defend themselves against bandits. A similar story is told by Safiya Sidiqi, a local member of parliament, about a raid on April 29th, in which her family home was shot up, killing a relation who thought the house was being robbed.

Whatever happened that night in Koshkaky, many Afghans suspect the worst. A history of botched raids and air strikes by coalition forces lends rumours of their alleged mistakes credibility, even where the insurgency n. 起义，暴动，造反 is weak. As the war intensifies and mishaps multiply around the country, winning hearts and minds may become even harder. A neighbour of the victims in Koshkaky speaks for many: “If the Americans do this again, we are ready to shed our blood against them. We would rather die than sit by and do nothing.”

tequilawineUID: 2702008

INDIA’S mobile-phone industry is adding more than 15m new connections each month, its growth sustained by ferocious adj. 残忍的，凶猛的，极度的 competition and astonishingly low prices (as little as $0.01 a minute in some cases). The industry’s regulator, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), has recently hinted that operators may soon have to charge customers on a per-second, rather than a per-minute, basis. That will be great for subscribers, but will put further pressure on operators, many of which are also having to fork out large sums for 3G licences.

Little wonder, then, that operators are shifting their strategies. Having previously focused on trying to attract as many customers and sell as many SIM cards as possible, they are now looking for ways to get each customer to spend more, by promoting new “value added services”. (Operators in the rich world have been struggling with this transition for years, as they have tried to plug the gap left by declining voice revenues and slowing subscriber growth by promoting data services of various kinds.)

In India, the operators have roughly segmented v. 分割, 切割; the market using the acronym ABCD, which stands for astrology, Bollywood, cricket and devotion. The idea is that all Indians are fascinated by at least one of these things. Not everyone is interested in astrology, though, and Bollywood and cricket have seasonal appeal. Devotion, by contrast, has a perennial audience.

The manner in which a devout Indian communicates with his God has changed over the years. At my workplace, I often find a couple of my formally dressed colleagues who are in their mid-40s muttering prayers to the wallpaper images on their computers, which consist of pictures of their favourite deity. While they may still continue to carry a picture of their deity in their wallets, this new option fascinates them even more.

The telecoms operators have found different ways to be part of a typical consumer’s daily routine. Instead of waking up in the morning to a jarring
adj. 刺耳的; 辗轧的; 不和谐的 beep from his alarm clock, his cell phone can sing a melodious aarti (prayer) that stimulates his senses at dawn. To experience this divine start to his day, he pays 30 rupees ($0.63) a month. Depending upon his religion, he can subscribe to daily quotes from his God which are fed to him, like medicine, three times a day at regular intervals. For this service he can either pay seven rupees for a “weekly pack”, or 28 rupees for a “monthly pack”, which includes a free screensaver. To accommodate variations in the popularity of local deities, the operators have customised their services for different regions. There are more Krishna followers in Gujarat (West India), whereas Kolkata (East India) is known for worshipping Durga.

Other devotional services can help with decision-making. Instead of referring to a physical calendar, subscribers can receive automatic alerts to tell them which dates or times of day are inauspicious adj. 不吉的, 恶运的, 凶兆的for starting a new job or shopping for a car. And the caller tune, which is played to incoming callers as they wait for the person they are calling to answer, has graduated from being a bland beeping noise to a bhajan (devotional song). Bharti Airtel, one of India’s leading operators, has introduced a service which streams live audio aartis recited by bhatjis (priests) to mobile phones from the most important shrines. While the bhatji is intoning those prayers, he is also talking into a microphone placed near the idol. With the introduction of 3G spectrum, the possibility of video streaming is not far off. Given the devotion of Indian consumers to their mobile phones, all this gives the notion of an omnipresent God a whole new meaning.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

once for all  
彻底地，一劳永逸地

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Governments were the solution to the economic crisis. Now they are the problemMay 27th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

IT’S not quite a Lehman moment, but financial markets are more anxious today than at any time since the global recovery took hold almost a year ago. The MSCI index of global stocks has fallen by over 15% since mid-April. Treasury yields have tumbled v. 翻倒, 倒塌, 摔倒; 使摔倒as investors have fled to the relative safety of American government bonds. The three-month inter-bank borrowing rate is at a ten-month high. Gone is the exuberance n. 茂盛; 健康; that greeted the return to growth (see article). Investors are on edge.

What lies behind these jitters v. 神经过敏, 战战兢兢? New nervousness about geopolitical risk, with tensions rising in the Korean peninsula, has not helped. But that comes on top of two wider worries.

One is about the underlying health of the world economy. Fears are growing that the global recovery will falter as Europe’s debt crisis spreads, China’s property bubble bursts and America’s stimulus-fuelled rebound peters v. 逐渐枯竭; 渐渐消失out. The other concerns government policy. From America’s overhaul of financial regulation to Germany’s restrictions on short-selling, politicians are changing the rules in unpredictable ways (see article). And the scale of sovereign debts has left governments with less room to counter any new downturn; indeed, many of them are being forced into austerity.

The danger is that these fears reinforce each other in a pernicious adj. 有害的, 致命的, 有毒的reversal of the dynamics of 2008-09. Then, co-ordinated government action on a grand scale stopped the global financial crisis from turning into a depression. Now, thanks to incompetence and impotence, governments may become the problem that will drag the world economy down.

Don’t panic

That is far from inevitable. Fears about the fragility of the global recovery are exaggerated. Led by big emerging economies, the world’s output is probably growing at an annual rate of more than 5%, far swifter than most seers expected.

This pace will, and should, slow, not least because the big emerging economies need to tackle rising inflation and possible asset bubbles. China is in obvious danger, which is why its government has tried to constrain loans and property prices. Pricking asset bubbles is never easy, but there is scant evidence that its efforts are too heavy-handed (see article).

America’s growth may also slow as firms stop rebuilding their stocks and the government’s stimulus tapers v. 逐渐变小，逐渐消失 off. But the world’s biggest economy does not seem on the verge of a second recession. For all their heavy debts, American consumers have returned to the shops. Their confidence is rising as the economy is producing jobs (albeit not enough of them). And Congress seems likely to slow the pace of fiscal tightening with a new “mini-stimulus” of temporary spending (see article).

Growth prospects look grimmest adj. 冷酷的, 可怕的, 残忍的 in Europe. Yet even there the likely immediate outcome of the euro zone’s crisis is the enfeeblement n. 衰弱of an already weak recovery, rather than a sudden slump. The region’s profligate n. 放荡者, 享乐者adj. 放荡的; 浪费的economies will struggle for longer as austerity kicks in. But waning confidence will be mitigated v. 镇静, 减轻, 缓和; by the boost that exports receive from the euro’s plunge n. 跳进, 投入.

Look only at those probable adj. 很可能的short-term prospects and it is hard to see why financial markets are suddenly in such a lather n. 肥皂泡. The reason is that the risks of a far worse outcome have risen, and those risks lie mainly with governments.

Grading the governments

The place with the wobbliest adj. 摆动的, 不稳定的 policy is Europe. For the euro to survive, Europeans need to be prepared not just for painful fiscal adjustment but for profound adj. 极深的, 深厚的, 深奥的structural reform as well. Profligate governments, mostly in southern Europe, must become more prudent. Uncompetitive economies must shake up their labour and product markets. Countries that are running current-account surpluses, mainly in the north, must help, by avoiding overzealous belt-tightening and introducing reforms to encourage private spending. And the European Central Bank (ECB) should counter the fiscal austerity with a looser monetary policy. Reducing real wages in Spain would be easier if euro-zone inflation were higher.

Unfortunately, Germany’s government seems to be drawing exactly the opposite conclusions, promising to set an example with tough cuts when it should be helping to stimulate growth. The worry is that, under German pressure, the ECB will have the same misguided tendency to toughness, condemning the euro area to years of stagnation.n. 淤塞; 不景气; 停滞

Governments outside the euro zone are also at risk of drawing flawed conclusions, especially on exchange rates and fiscal policy. China seems to think that the euro’s decline makes it less urgent to allow the yuan to appreciate. The opposite is true. With its biggest export market in a funk, China needs to accelerate the rebalancing of its economy towards domestic consumption, with the help of a stronger currency.

For much of the rich world, however, the most important consequences of Europe’s mess will be fiscal. Governments must steer between imposing premature austerity (in a bid to avoid becoming Greece) and allowing their public finances to deteriorate for too long. In some countries with big deficits, the fear of a bond-market rout n. 溃败, 溃退v. 击溃, 打垮is forcing rapid action. Britain’s new government spelled out useful initial spending cuts this week. But the emergency budget promised for June 22nd will be trickier: it needs to show resolve on the deficit without sending the country back into recession.

In America, paradoxically, the Greek crisis has, if anything, removed the pressure for deficit reduction, by reducing bond yields. America’s structural budget deficit will soon be bigger than that of any other OECD member, and the country badly needs a plan to deal with it. But for now, lower bond yields and a stronger dollar are the route through which American spending will rise to counter European austerity. Thanks to its population growth and the dollar’s role as a global currency, America has more fiscal room than any other big-deficit country. It has been right to use it.

The world is nervous for good reason. Although the fundamentals are reasonably good, the judgment of politicians is often unreasonably bad. Right now that is what poses the biggest risk to the world economy.

tequilawineUID: 2702008

Militancy in Mauritius
THEIR crimes were “gross indecency” and “unnatural acts”. Their sentence was 14 years’ hard labour: one intended, said the judge, to scare others. He has succeeded. A court in Malawi last week horrified many with its treatment of Steven Monjeza and Tiwonge Chimbalanga, a gay couple engaged to be married. The two men are the latest victims of a crackdown  n. 压迫，镇压，痛击on gay rights in much of the developing world, particularly Africa.

Some 80 countries criminalise consensual homosexual sex. Over half rely on “sodomy” laws left over from British colonialism. But many are trying to make their laws even more repressive. Last year, Burundi’s president, Pierre Nkurunziza, signed a law criminalising consensual gay sex, despite the Senate’s overwhelming rejection of the bill. A draconian bill proposed in Uganda would dole out jail sentences for failing to report gay people to the police and could impose the death penalty for gay sex if one of the participants is HIV-positive. In March Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, who once described gay people as worse than dogs or pigs, ruled out constitutional changes outlawing discrimination based on sexual orientation.n. 信仰，趋向，定位，适应，

In many former colonies, denouncing v. 指责, 谴责; 弹劾; homosexuality as an “unAfrican” Western import has become an easy way for politicians to boost both their popularity and their nationalist credentials. But Peter Tatchell, a veteran gay-rights campaigner, says the real import into Africa is not homosexuality but politicised homophobia.

This has, he argues, coincided with an influx n. 流入，河口of conservative Christians, mainly from America, who are eager to engage African clergy n. [总称]牧师 in their own domestic battle against homosexuality. David Bahati, the Ugandan MP who proposed its horrid bill, is a member of the Fellowship, a conservative American religious and political organisation. “Africa must seem an exciting place for evangelical n. 新教徒; 福音派教徒adj. 福音的; 新教的Christians from places like America,” says Marc Epprecht, a Canadian academic who studies homosexuality in Africa. “They can make much bigger gains in their culture wars there than they can in their own countries.” Their ideas have found fertile ground. In May this year, George Kunda, Zambia’s vice-president, lambasted v. 痛打, 严责gay people, saying they undermined the country’s Christian values and that sadism and Satanism could be the result.

Discrimination against gays, in Africa in particular, risks undermining the fight against HIV/AIDS. In February, those suspected of being gay were targeted in Kenya in mob n. 暴民, 暴徒, 民众violence at a government health centre providing HIV/AIDS services. Bishop Joshua Banda, chairman of Zambia’s National AIDS Council, said that donor n. 捐款人; 捐助人countries’ efforts to speak out against violations of gay rights were against Zambia’s “traditional values”. The increasing crackdown on gay rights in Africa will be a disaster for public health, according to Mr Epprecht, as gay people go underground and do not get treatment for HIV/AIDS.

The problem goes beyond Africa and is more than one of state-sponsored homophobia. In Iraq, for example, homosexuality is legal. But in 2009 Human Rights Watch described the persecution n. 迫害, 烦扰that men suspected of being gay there face, including kidnappings, rape, torture and extrajudicial killings. In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion, there has been a growing fear of the “feminisation” of Iraqi men. The Mahdi Army, a Shia militia, has played on these fears and, claiming to uphold religious values and morality, offered violent “solutions”. Members of the Iraqi security forces have also been accused of colluding in the violence.

South Africa was the first country anywhere to ban homophobic discrimination in its constitution. It is the only country in Africa to allow gay marriage. In formal legal terms, it is a beacon n. 烟火，灯塔for gay rights, says Mr Tatchell. But the growing phenomenon of “corrective rape” both there and in Zimbabwe, where women are assaulted in an attempt to “cure” them of lesbianism, suggests these laws often fail on the ground. As worrying to campaigners as the violence itself is a reluctance by the authorities to acknowledge that the attacks are motivated by homophobia. In April 2008 Eudy Simelane, a South African football player who was a lesbian, was gang-raped and stabbed to death. Two men were convicted of her murder but, in his sentencing, the judge denied that Ms Simelane’s sexuality played a part in the crime.

Hopes rose a little in June 2009 when India overturned its 149-year-old sodomy law but since then the global trend seems to have been in the opposite direction. Campaigners argue the proposed laws have implications beyond gay rights. How countries treat one particularly vulnerable group is a good measure of how they will act towards the rest of their citizens.