A01 昨天半夜迷迷糊糊写出来的第一篇，求大家指点一下

cclizhanUID: 2756273

我承认，好多都是东拼西凑的看的模板，可是= = 第一篇实在不知如何下手
跪求各位高人指点
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

       In this memorandum,the vice president of Nature's Way(NW),a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related pruducts,recommends that they should built their next new store in P.To substantiate the recommendation,the vice president provide evidence that  the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs in P.In addition,she also points out that the health club has more members than ever. Futhermore,she infers that they can anticipate a new generation of customers since schoolchildren are required to paticipate in a fitness program.However,the supporting evidence lends little credible support to the recommendation.
        In the first place,the vice president falsely denpends on the assumption that high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing could lead to high sales of NW's new store.However,it is entirely possible that the causing of the high sales is not people are interested in them.For example,the price of the clothing and shoes is lower than others,or it is a fashion to buy these clothing and shoes.Without rulling out other possilble reasons for high sales,the vice president can't convince me.
         In addition,even if the residents in P are interested in exercising,the vice president assumes the residents are willing to buy NW's health food and other health-related products.But there is no firm evidence to substantiate the assumption.Maybe the residents think regular exercise is enough and they don't need health food any more.Even if they are interested to buy some healthy product,they are more likely to buy it in the shop they used to go.Therefore,the recommendation is unwarranted without rulling out this possibility.
        What's more,the vice president claims that they will anticipate the schoolchildren as a new generation customers.But everything has to change.It is highly possible that after 10 years or a longer time,the habit of the children will change.They don't do exercise any more or even buy healty-related product any more.
       Last but not the least,the vice president assumes too hastily that NW's new store will be profitable.Profit is a factor of not only revenue but also cost.It is entirely possible that the cost of the construction and  advertising,or other costs will offset,even outweigh the revenue.
        In conclusion,this recommendation is logically flawed and not convicing.To bolster it,the vice president must provide clear evidence that the residents in P who buy the exercise clothing and shoes will be interested in NW's health food and other health-related product.To better assess the recommendation,I need the information that why there is no more health club since the health club is popular.And I also need to know what competition will NW's new store encounter