【Big Fish】3月4日Argument14-By Rokre2tt

rokre2ttUID: 2714355

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."


In this argument, the author concludes that consumers are enjoying growing vegetables now, which can be judged by a national survey and the selling condition of a gardening magazine. Further more, the author indicates that Green Thumb Gardening Center should increase the stock of vegetable seeds to profit more. However, through the analysis to the evidence and process of arguing, we could find some marked flaws in the argument.

First of all, the survey acclaimed that consumers were not satisfied with the quality of supermarkets' vegetables, but there is no evidence could prove that they like growing vegetables personally. Everyone knows that it's a hard work to plant vegetables for it will cost them much money, time and energy. Living in such a society full of fierce competition, there will be not so many people take part in this work ignoring the risk of firing by their bosses. There is another reason to this point, nowadays in the cities people are hard to find suitable area to grow vegetables, and not everyone has necessary ability to plant them.

In further, the popularity of such a magazine Great Gardens in three months couldn't be explained as consumers want to grow their own vegetables. There are not sufficient evidences in the argument to prove that people purchase these magazines to study how to plant vegetables. It maybe just a function to entertainment to many persons, or only a access to touch the newest message about merchandise. As the author doesn't point the reason why the magazine is so hot those days, the conclusion after it is not so creditable.

At last, pointing to the judge that the profit of next year will increase if the Green Thumb Gardening Center adds its stock of seeds, we can say it's an illusion without any evidence. As we all know, the increase of profit is decided by many elements, such as the selling activities of the company, the demand from consumers, and the forecast of next year's climate condition.
Especially the price of seeds is an important factor. If other companies also predict that the sales will increase, they may aggrandize the stock too. Thus, if the supply of seeds adds many, the price will drop, so we can't make a conclusion that the profit will increase.

To sum up, as the author doesn't offer sufficient credible evidence to conclude that consumers are interested in and they can actually devote in growing their own vegetables, we can't judge there will be more demand to the seeds, so the author's conclusion is not substantiate. To enforce it, there should be more messages about the consumers' intention, the reason why the magazine is so popular and the information about the seeds' market.