AG 176 求拍

麻仓棍子UID: 2612778

ARGUMENT176 - The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company.
"A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."


Striving for the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally is the suggestion of the author in this argument, and he claims that the profit of the company will be sure to increase in a very short time. Although, having a great effect in reducing cholesterol and selling easily in Alta--the basis evidence provided by the author seems reasonable, the contention might mask other possibilities that may obstruct the company to have a short increase in the profit.

First, the author tell us a indispensable information about the margarine in the second sentence, which reveals the fact that no one knows what Venadial works on human body. Therefore, from this, we can not accept the author’s unreasonably assumption hidden in the next sentence, which present a research consequence that cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent and the risk of heart attack decreases by one-third among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily. In addition, we can logical presume other possibilities on that fact, for instance, the sample selection might not be random( it will result in uncertain research consequence),those participants might consume other health food in the research time,
and it even might be normal because the level of cholesterol in some area is possible low than the level in the planet. Before the author presents more evidence to rule out other causes on the consequence of the research, we can not believe that Venadial has such conspicuous effect on reducing cholesterol levels.

Secondly, the author judge that if the company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, the profit will increase in a short time. However, the beautiful promise bases on a false analogy that Venadial is popular in Alta, so it will be popular in other places. The author intentionally neglects the difference between Alta and other area in the world, even a town twenty miles far from Alta. The common sense tells us that people living in difference places may have a tremendous distinction on the taste on food. Therefore, it is possible that Venadial is not popular in other places. Even if the author emphasize the margarine’s ability in reducing the cholesterol instead its taste, and we admit it, but it is possible most people in other town have a so smart and strong body that they do not need this so-called healthy margarine to take place the margarine they used past.
Without other evidence showing that people in different place have such a general character that they all prefer to eat Venadial instead of what they used in the past, we can not accept the suggestion.

What is more? The author is too rapid to make the judgment about the profit. It makes him not only omit the difference between people in two places, but also neglect other significant factors which will make a enormous impact in profit.
Dose the author consider the produce price of Venadial? The produce price might so expensive that we can not get enough profit in this program. Dose the author consider the traffic expenses? Dose the author pay close attention to the market competition? It is tough to compete with other famous brands in other places.
In addition, if we decide to invest in this product, we must reduce investment in formal product.
We should make a comparison between the margarine and the formal product. Moreover, we also should consider whether we could produce Venadial in a large scale and every season. Nothing above does the author say, and without sufficient information and further analyze, we can not accept this recommendation.

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