【Big Fish】3月13日Argument35-By rokre2tt

rokre2ttUID: 2714355

In this argument, based on a research whichhas been lasted for twenty years about the correlation between the incidence ofheadaches and the commercial use of salicylates, and recently the new use ofsalicylates as flavor additives for foods, the author concludes that there willbe a steady decline of the headache patients by the average citizen of Mentia.It seems a rational conclusion, but after a comprehensive analysis, there aresome serious logical flaws in the argument.
 
First of all, even aspirin has an effect oftreating headaches, as the members of the same chemical family, there are not sufficientevidence to prove salicylates have the same utility. In the same chemicalfamily, different members may have different properties. Even sometimes the differencecould be so large that many people can't believe their eyes. Since the authordoesn't indicate that salicylates have the same effect as aspirin with someaccurate scientific data, we can't guarantee that salicylates can also be usedto treat headaches.

 
Secondly, there may be other factors whichcan lead the incidence of headaches decline during the study. For example, ifthe participants take some medicines which can prevent the headaches in thelater time of the study, the incidence may decline. Perhaps at first theparticipants have bad habits which may cause headaches, but then they correctthese habits, the number of headaches in average may also decline. Without suchdetails, we hardly judge the decline of the number of headaches in average dueto the salicylates.

 
Thirdly, the author doesn't give suchinformation that whether the Mentia's citizen accept the foods with salicylatesin them as the flavor additives. If they hate such foods for some reasons, the expectionthat a steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the local citizenswill become an illusion. We can imagine there may be a taste after thesalicylates added in, while the Mentia's citizens don't like such a taste, sothey don't buy these foods at all. Finally the salicyulates can't be effectiveto them.
 
The last but not the least, the authorgarbles the treatment and the prevention. The author indicates salicylates canbe used to treat headaches, but only preventing the occurrence is the key todecline the incidence. Even salicylates are very effective in the treatment of headaches,while it occurs after all. As there are no messages about whether salicylatescan be used to prevent the headaches, we can't get such a conclusion.
 
All in all, as there are such logical flawsin the argument, the author's conclusion is insubstantial. To enforce it, weshould have more evidence. They may include the accurate effect of saliucylatesin the headaches, the Mentia's citizen’s attitude to the new foods, and thedetails about the study.

gaobaoayu123UID: 2740997

倒数第二段感觉有些牵强 或者把它丢到第三段也不错~