argument20 求指导

water5045UID: 2688074

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of  accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighbour island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 405          TIME: 00:34:13          DATE: 2010/3/13 15:52:14

In this letter,the author recommends that in Balmer(B),the number of mopeds rentals should be limited in order to reduce the accidents.To bolster this argument,the author cites that during the summer season the population has increased to 100000 and the neighbour island of Torseau(T) achieved 50 percent reduction in moped accidents by enforcing similar limits on moped rentals.This argument is weak and unpersuasive.



In the first place,the argument unreasonably assumes that the limits on moped rentals are necessary.Without information about the amount of accidents occurring in B or the accidental frequency,it is impossible to judge the necessarily of that plan.Perhaps the safety in B is very satisfying or perhaps the total amount of accidents happening every year is quite small,so the limits
are likely to be redundant.



In addition,even if the problem of accidents involving moped and pedestrians is quite severe,the author cannot guarantee the limits on moped rentals will address this problem,because the author fails to justify that the accidental problems are the result of redundant mopeds rather than something relating to the flaws in traffic regulations.And what's more,there are several respects weakening the author's assumptions.First,the increasing population is scant evidence to show that more people in B rent mopeds.Secondly,the author provides no evidence that these accidents mainly occur in summer months,perhaps accidental frequency is higher or equivalent in winter months.Thirdly,limit the number of mopeds rentedby each of the island 's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day is not indication that 30 mopeds rental per day is enough to
decline the occurrences of the accidents.Thus,this plan is suspicious in practicality.


Finally even if the similar limits on moped rentals were success in the neighboring area T,the author overlooks the possible differences between the two areas which might lead to the limits' failure in B. Before we judge this strategy's effect and make a conclusion,we need to analyse the two areas' specific conditions.Perhaps the accident frequency and total amount in T are both smaller than those in B,so the 50 percentage shows little about the limits' effect.It is possible that in T the number of companies renting mopeds are few and the amount of accidents involving mopeds are far less than that in B.Without ruling out this possibility,the author cannot draw any conclusion about the new limits's effect.



In sum,this argument is unpersuasive due to several logic flaws.To strength this recommendation,the author must provide more clear evidence to justify that the two areas are similar in relevant conditions such as the total number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.To better assess this argument,I need information about the accidents frequency in summer months and other months.