ivycxh arguement45 Cracking AW 3.20

ivycxhUID: 2684552

Based on the reports from local hunters, the global warming trends, and the arctic deer's age-old migration patterns, the editorial concludes that there is a decline of arctic deer and this decline is the result of them unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. But close examination reveals that this argument is unconvincing in the following aspects.

Firstly, the argument's conclusion that the arctic deer's population is declined is unwarranted. The mere fact that local hunters report a decline of deer population is not evidence that the deer population is indeed declined. The hunters may not have found the deer because the areas where the deer have gone are not necessarily caught up by the hunters. Perhaps the deer have travel to some other areas that the hunters have never been to, or perhaps the deer and hunters happen to appear in the same area in the different time. In this case, the hunters think the deer number is declined but the population of deer is not declined actually. In short, the conclusion that population of deer is declined is not guaranteed.

Granted that the population of the arctic deer is declined, the argument unfairly assumes that the decline in arctic deer is the result of the global warming. But is the weather in the arctic region indeed warmer than before? It is possible that the warming trends are global but not necessarily also true in the arctic region and the weather here is still the same with before. Even the temperature here is influenced and is indeed higher than before, is this increase in the temperature enough to cause the ice to melt in the time the deer used to travel over the ice? Or is the ice melting in just a few areas that deer never travel in the cold time, or is it melting in most areas in arctic? If this information is not given, we cannot conclude that the deer cannot travel on the ice. Moreover, even if the ice melting has indeed blocked the deer traveling, are the deer destined to die from it? Perhaps the deer can change their age-old migration pattern to adjust to the environment, which is very common in the animal species. In short, the deer population decline is not necessarily caused by the global warming trends.

The argument also does not take into account of other alternative causes that might have contributed to the decline of arctic deer. It is very possible that the decline of deer is due to some other factors, such as the hunting from people, the pollution from human beings and the reducing of their living areas, the risk put on them from their predator or the reduced resources of their food. Every one among these factors may have bigger influence than the global warming trends, and could be the real reason of the decline of deer population. Without ruling out these alternatives, the argument should not make the conclusion too quickly.

In conclusion, this argument is unwarranted. To prove that the decline of arctic deer is the result of them unable to follow their age-old migration patterns, the argument needs to provide us more information about the arctic deer's true number now, and that the temperature in arctic region is warmer and caused the melting of ice. It would also be helpful to give evidence that the decline of deer population is caused by not being able to travel cross the ice.

ajivaUID: 2654700

我和你找的错误差不多，不过GLOBAL WARMING那块儿写得没有你那么详细，拜读~

建议各段首句多用连词，这样读起来更加完整。

还有我觉得假性因果可以分多段写，更加有说服力~（个人意见，仅供参考~）