[66's]同题 Argument73

soilinkinUID: 2163892

argument 73
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."



The author of the argument asserts that cardealership should put emphasis on leasing cars rather than selling cars bypointing out that the number of leased cars in Mohilia will surpass the numberof individual owned ones. However, the evidence in the argument is not stableenough to support the author's conclusion, the false reasoning of the authoralso make the conclusion not so convincing.

In the first place, the larger number ofpeople who lease cars each year does not necessarily means that more cars areleased than sold. It is said in the argument that more people were leasing carsthan buying cars. Nevertheless, this evidence does not result in that more carswere leased. Because it may be that not everyone in the evidence has leased orbought a car, in many cases, a family leases one. So the number of leased carsin the last five years may not surpass the number of sold ones. Moreover,leasing cars provides less constraint to people so they can change car fromtime to time with no extra cost while individual owned cars cannot be changed.If so, there may be much less leased cars in Mohilia than sold ones.

Secondly, the six years of average age ofcars driven in Mohilia cannot lead to the consequence that more people willdrive leased cars. Each year, there were cars, no matter leased or sold, reachtheir age limit, drivers will lease new ones or buy new ones if their cars gettoo old. So number of leased cars and sold cars may still keep balance ifpeople stick to their former choice, it is unpersuasive that more leased carswill be driven in Mohilia.

At last, even assuming that the majority ofpeople will be driving leased cars in Mohilia, it is too hasty to conclude thatleasing cars should be the orientation of car dealers. The inexpensive cost isthe reason why people choose to lease cars, although more cars are leased, thenumber may not provide too more profit to car dealers than selling cars.Selling cars may still be the main source of profit, therefore selling carsshould not be neglected.

In sum, to reach the conclusion that cardealers should concentrate on leasing cars rather than selling cars, morecredible evidences that more leased cars will be driven by people areindispensable. What is more, the author must prove that leasing cars will bringmore interest to car dealers.

zoeyczUID: 2621425

1# soilinkin

The author of the argument asserts that cardealership should put emphasis on leasing cars rather than selling cars bypointing out that the number of leased cars in Mohilia will surpass the numberof individual owned ones. However, the evidence in the argument is not stable (这个词值得商榷)enough to support the author's conclusion, the false reasoning of the authoralso make the conclusion not so convincing.

In the first place, the larger number ofpeople who lease cars each year does not necessarily means that more cars areleased than sold. It is said in the argument that more people were leasing carsthan buying cars. Nevertheless, this evidence does not result in that more carswere leased. Because it may be that not everyone in the evidence has leased orbought a car, in many cases, a family leases one. So the number of leased carsin the last five years may not surpass the number of sold ones. Moreover,leasing cars provides less constraint to people so they can change car fromtime to time with no extra cost while individual owned cars cannot be changed.If so, there may be much less leased cars in Mohilia than sold ones.

Secondly, the six years of average age ofcars driven in Mohilia cannot lead to the consequence that more people willdrive leased cars. Each year, there were cars, no matter leased or sold, reachtheir age limit, drivers will lease new ones or buy new ones if their cars gettoo old. So number of leased cars and sold cars may still keep balance ifpeople stick to their former choice, it is unpersuasive that more leased carswill be driven in Mohilia. （这里我对题目的理解和你有些分歧，也就是你在我文章里看到的讨论点，我觉得这里的average six和之前的 in the last five years有一个联合起来对应的关系，以证明最近五年的车在路上跑的量已经跟之前所有年的车辆至少持平？或更多？我觉得是一个基于数学的计算，虽然我暂时还没有想明白。希望大家给点建议。）

At last, even assuming that the majority ofpeople will be driving leased cars in Mohilia, it is too hasty to conclude thatleasing cars should be the orientation of car dealers. The inexpensive cost isthe reason why people choose to lease cars, although more cars are leased, thenumber may not provide too more profit to car dealers than selling cars.Selling cars may still be the main source of profit, therefore selling carsshould not be neglected.

In sum, to reach the conclusion that cardealers should concentrate on leasing cars rather than selling cars, morecredible evidences that more leased cars will be driven by people areindispensable. What is more, the author must prove that leasing cars will bringmore interest to car dealers.

Note：结构我又得再提一次，实在很纯熟了，跟issue不同的是我觉得在argu中结构清晰绝对是好事。
开头结尾我都会学习的，虽然很套路，但是我觉得你的概括语言很好很精练到位。
另外，我觉得就中间段的疑问希望可以有更多人来brain storm一下。