【夏花绚烂】Argument45--by drm-33 求猛拍！

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第一次发习作哈，希望大家多拍拍哈，我也会积极回拍的哈~


TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 323          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-3-29 14:08:22


In this argument, the arguer claims the decline of arctic deer populations is due to unable to follow old migration patterns, which is caused by the global warming. The statement sounds true, but has to be justified in some aspects.

In the very first beginning, the arguer proposes the following claims based on reports from local hunters. But it seems that the arguer refused to clarify the process that was used, whether it was random or  had some restriction in certain area, also, refused to give detailed hunting habits of those hunters, say, if they like to go out for hunting in a time that was not a favoured period for deers go out for food. Without ruling out these possibilities, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude the based assumption is convincing, not alone the following conclusion.

Even assuming that the statistics the arguer based are correct, the arguer points out that the coincidence between recent global warming and decline in arctic deer has a causal and effect correlation. But since the decline of arctic deer can attribute to various reasons somehow, maybe because of overhunting, maybe there exists an unbalanced food chain in the nature world due to exotic species, or maybe some other unforeseen factors we do not even expect, the arguer just makes the arbitrary correlation without doing a more deeper research.

Moreover, the arguer says the recent global warming trends caused the sea ice to melt, but failed to give detailed statistics saying the weather condition in Arctic has gone through the same situation. The arguer cannot put the entire weather cases in a global scale into a certain area, say, arctic, without even showing convinced evidence to support the claim. Unless the arguer can show us a specific statistics about the local weather condition and convinced me that that condition is surely the very reason to cause the sea ice to melt, we cannot conclude the assumption like the arguer did.