【夏花绚烂】Argument79--by drm-33 求猛拍！

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT79 - The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.

"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."
WORDS: 565
TIME: 01:00:00
DATE: 2010-3-30 22:03:04



The arguer cited an example from the Longhaul trucking company, illustrating that through pay increase to its drivers and training standards improvement, also along with strict limits on the numbers of hours per week on each driver, can trucking companies managed to reduce their accident rate. Further, the arguer quoted a survey of other trucking companies saying that highest-paid drivers made least likely accident. Thus, a conclusion is made that simply by raising drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours can for the trucking industry to reduce their accident rate.

First, the statistics about the Longhaul trucking company has to be justified in several aspects. The arguer says one-year's pay increase to its drivers and training standards improvement contributes to accident rate reduction. What if the salary adjustment accords with the local currency fluctuation? And maybe this adjustment was under the law of all nationwide because of economic situation happened that year, which does nothing related to the policy of the Longhaul trucking company helping to reduce its annual accident rate. Also, for training standards improvement, what if the training just acted upon those experienced drivers, since the Longhaul trucking company has always being strict in its admission standards for drivers who are willing to be part of its company. Without ruling out those possibilities, we cannot conclude that the causal relations between pay increase and training standards improvement
and numbers of accidents can convince us in some degree.

The arguer also gives vague information when saying about the following years change, that is "half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented".
The arguer fails to present the total number in these two years and if, we assume that, the first year there are 100 trucks, and the accident rate is 20%, then there will be 20 accident incidents. Thus for the following year, half the number of accidents is 10, but if in a devastating situation, the company owes only 20 trucks, then the accident rate would be 50%, which cannot act as a fair reason to say that the implemented change in this company made a substantial result.

Even assuming that pay increase and training standards in Longhaul trucking company does help in accident rate reduction, the arguer cannot hastily generalize the same effect which might take part in the trucking industry, also, the arguer cannot provide enough information saying that other companies’ situation has something to be copied since maybe these highest-paid drivers get their current pay at the cost of years of driving experience and training. Without ruling out the specific conditions that happened in these companies, the arguer cannot oversimplify the various uncertainties in all companies in the trucking industry.

Further, some others factors may contribute to reducing the accident rate that are not limited in the areas of pay raise and overall number of hours the drivers can drive limits, such as public awareness of safety driving and their value toward their own life. Also, the road condition may also be count, maybe the accidents will be more likely to occur when the road condition is not that satisfying. Others like if drivers tend to drive more in the early afternoon, when in their lowest spirits, car accidents also might happen unrelated to pay raise and overall number of hours. Thus, the arguer’s oversimplification cannot convince us somehow unless more information will be given.