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发表于 2010-4-18 10:46:35
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题目:
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
内容:
The letter above is well-presented, but not really reasoned. The author argues that the Batavia government should cut retail milk prices down to prevent the dairy farmers from getting more and more profits, due to the increment of milk prices and milk supply. The author's recommendation to low the prices and ensure an adequate supply of milk seems logical.
However, the arguer fails to provide enough evidence to convince me that there is an apparently increased supply of milk. There is no evidence to illustrate the supply of milk is proportional to the number of dairy farms. Although the number is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago, it is possible that the average productivity of each farm is reduced intensely, caused by the decrement of the number of milk cow or the quantity of milk each cow produces. This possibility can lead to a gross dwindlement of the milk supply in Batavia. The change of population in the country is also important. Perhaps, a lot of people influxed into Batavia during that 10 years, causing the demand of milk to increase highly. From this point, the supply of milk ought to increase to satisfy the demand, and the supply-demand ratio may not get high.
Even affirming the increased supply of milk, we still can not assert farmers are receiving excessive profits. Unless the arguer proves that the price of milk at local Excello Food Market is representative of that throughout the country, I don't believe the average price increased so much. On the other hand, the author also chooses to ignore the competition among the farms and the costs of production. It's possible that, during that 10 years, more and more costs need to be put into the operation of dairy farms. With the development of the economy, people's lives are getting better and better, and workers there are asking for higher salary than they did 10 years ago, now maybe 3 or 4 times of that. Perhaps, the increment of the prices of cow forage also contributes to the more and more costs. Generally speaking, the greater the number of dairy farms gets, the sharper the competition among them becomes. The competition sometimes means less profits were brought about to each farm, as they want to cut their own price down to occupy the most parts of the market. In one word, all these possibilities lead the profits in milk not to inflat but to decrease.
Last but not least, the price of milk is a function of supply and demand, the government should not interfere too much. Even the hike of price and the increment of supply are all caused by high demand of milk. Once the government regulates the retail prices, followed by that the profits which are already small get smaller, many farms will move to other countries where they can earn morn money. If this happens, the supply of milk will drop drastically in Batavia. Furthermore, due to the function of supply and demand, the prices will get higher and higher instead. At that time, if someone makes some misleading, the condition of milk market is going sto be worse.
This letter looks convincing before considering some more details. The arguer may be misled by some media, but our government should not be misled by this letter. Before taking measures, officials in government ought to make some investigation to ensure whether the reality is as bad as the letter tells us, or, at least, to rule out the possibilities mentioned above. Or, the result may go out of control. |
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