【1010G精英组】ARGUMENT209 B组回收站

weaselUID: 2739489

20日，13点

youngstoneUID: 2670818

In this argument, the manager recommends that the FTC should appoint RW instead of PS as the new president. To substantiate the recommendation, the manager provides the evidence that the profits of SJ whose president is RW have increased dramatically, while the FTC has suffered from a decline in profits under PS’s leadership. While clearly examining the evidence, we may find several critical flaws.

In the first place, the fact that the profits of FTC have fallen considerably does not necessarily indicate that the PS is not qualified for the president. Profitability is a function of revenue and expense, therefore, the increase in the cost of materials and labor may prevent the company from earning a profit.

Similarly, the assumption that SJ has prospered because of RW’s leadership is groundless. Other factors rather than RW’s management may contribute to the increase of profits in SJ. Maybe the competition in jewelry market is not that drastic and maybe the SJ Company has always been prosperous due to the enhancement of people’s standard of living. It is entirely possible that the former president of SJ has a distinguished management and the prosperity has nothing to do with RW.

Even if PS is responsible for the decrease in profits and SJ’s prosperity is really due to RW’ work, it is highly doubtful that the SJ would lead FTC to increase its profits. Drastic differences exist in the marketing mode and the customer base between the two companies. Thus RW may be qualified to lead the SJ but due to his less acquaintance with PS, his replacement may not meet the expectation of PS.

Even assuming RW is competent to the president, the assumption that the profits will increase is open to doubt. Since we do not know to what extent the profits would increase, thus neither do we know whether the profits would increase considering the twice-as-much salary we have to pay to RW. Our profits may even decrease due to the high salary we have to offer.

To sum up, the recommendation that FTC should appoint RW instead of PS as the new president is unwarranted. To bolster the recommendation, the manager should establish a causal relationship between PS’ leadership and FTC’ profits decline. In addition, the manager should offer clear information about RW to convince me that RW is competent to the place. In addition, concrete statistics concerning the new salary for RW and the increase of profits in SJ are needed to evaluate the profitability of FT.

ROse_MaryUID: 2790464

In this recommendation, the manager tends to replace the recent president Pat Salvo by president of Starlight Jewelry Rosa Winnings because of the decreasing profits in the last three quarters. However, the manager fails to take other factors into account that may lead to the fluctuation in profits of specific companies.

To begin with, three quarters is too short a period to judge the achievement of president. The manager fails to rule out other factors that may cause the fall of profits in last three quarters. The short-term shift of the consumers’ interest in the toy industry, for example, might lead to a fall of profits in the overall industry because of another alternative emerging such as video games for children. To the Fancy Toy Company, the long-term profits are also an important index to assess the managing ability of president. Perhaps the profits over the past several years( the manager judge Rosa Winnings by the profits over the past several years) were increasing in a row, but because of the seasonal factors, such as the baby boom this year, which led to the considerable decrease of the baby toys the profits in the last three quarter fall drastically. Without the comparison of profits in the long-term period and among other toy company, the manager cannot simply conclude that the wrong leadership directly cause the fall of their profits and ask her leave.

Moreover, similarly, only by the increasing profits in the past several years cannot we consider that Rosa Winnings has the better ability to lead the company. The increasing profits in the past several years may exist in all companies in the jewelry industry because of the special change in jewelry market. For instance, with the rise of the living standard, more people like to buy jewelry in the past several years leading to the great demand for jewelry. Thus, from the analysis above, it is unreasonable for the manager asserts that changing president will certainly give rise to the profits.

Finally, even if Rosa Winnings run Starlight Jewelry by use of Rosa’s outstanding ability of leadership, there is no evidence showing that the Fancy Toy Company will get the same result as Starlight Jewelry. These two companies are quite different, even not in the same industry. We know nothing about the economic conditions of the companies which are certainly connected with the working of president. If there are lots of differences in the operational model, the scale and the management system between the two companies, Rosa must need a period to get him or herself used to the environment in the Fancy Toy Company. Whether Rosa will make the profits keep rising remains unknown to us.

In conclusion, the board must consider the general status of the Fancy Toy Company and the overall industry, otherwise it may be even worse.