【1010G精英组】ARGUMENT20 B组回收站

weaselUID: 2739489

21日，13点

youngstoneUID: 2670818

In this letter, the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette concludes that the town council will certainly fulfill the goal of 50 percent reduction in moped accidents if the number of rentals is limited. To bolster the conclusion, the editor provides the evidence that last year in the neighboring Torseau, the town council attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents by limiting the number of rentals. It is not difficult to find that the argument has many logical flaws.

In the first place, to limit the number of rentals cannot necessarily reduce the number of the accidents. After the limitation, the accidents caused by the rentals may become less but other reasons may lead to the increase in the number of accidents. It is possible that the limitation of rentals add to the incommodiousness of the people, which may lead them to buy their own cars. In that case, the number of accidents may even increase rather than drop. In addition, after the limitation of rentals, there will be much more people in the street and maybe there are even more accidents than before. In a word, without ruling out other factors that can influence the number of the accidents, we cannot get the conclusion that there will be fewer accidents.

In the second place, the 50 percent reduction in Torseau is not necessarily due to the limitation. Other factors can lead to the reduction as well. It is entirely possible that the weather in Torseau became milder and cooler, which is better for driving. It is equally possible that the police has enhanced the enforcement of rules and laws. Thus the overall conditions in Torseau became better, not only the traffic problem. Unless the arguer proves that these factors cannot influence the final conclusion, we cannot simply attribute the 50 percent accidents reduction in Torseau is the result of the limitation of rentals.

In the third place, the argument suffered from a false analogy between Balmer Island and Torseau. Maybe people in Torseau do not have to travel in the island, so they may not feel inconvenient without a large amount of rentals and just stay at home or go to other places on foot. While people in Balmer Island may be busy working and thus they must get to their work on time, no matter by rentals or other means. Faced with the situation that the number of rentals has declined, they may be deadly dissatisfied and may generate more complex issues.

Last but not least, the 50 percent reduction may refer to the number of accidents causing by rentals. However, besides rentals, traffic accidents may be caused by other vehicles lice bicycles. So the overall conditions of the traffic may not be improved.

To sum up, the arguer concludes that the town council will certainly fulfill the goal of 50 percent reduction in moped accidents by the limitation of the number of rentals, which is logically flawed. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer should take into account the possible results after the limitation of rentals and prove that the Balmer and Torseau are comparable in traffic conditions.

ROse_MaryUID: 2790464

Topic:
20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

（第一次通过逻辑链进行分析，也不知道对不对，希望能给看一下~）
逻辑链：
限制摩托车租赁—————>>能够降低摩托车与行人的交通事故50%
论据：邻岛去年在同样的政策下达到了效果
攻击点：
1）
基于第一点比较：
1）involving mopeds and pedestrians——moped and bicycle rental
2）针对论据，邻岛能够起作用不代表本岛就能起作用，因为还有其他原因12。。


The writer of the letter is a warm-hearted person. He or she is aware that the increase of the population will give rise to the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians and raises the suggestion limiting the rental companies to reduce the number of the accidents. At the first glance, the advice seems reasonable, but we will certainly find several fallacies after further analysis and proof.

To start with, the writer wish to attain the 50% reduction by limiting the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. However, the reduction will not necessarily be achieved because the usage of the mopeds contains not only the moped rental, but other situations as well. Such as the people who own mopeds and the restaurants that deliver food by mopeds, they will not be reduced to use mopeds in this suggestion, and will probably cause the situation that the number of the mopeds rental is reduced, while the frequency of the usage of mopeds doesn’t change. Thus, the effectiveness of the advice is quite doubtful.

Then, the argument in the letter that this kind of measure in the neighboring island of Torseau is successful since 50% reduction was achieved by the similar limit on mopeds last year. The writer seems confident that the same plan will certainly come into effectiveness, but without the comparison of some details, upon which the conclusion is based, the analogy may be wrong. Toresau, for example, may be a small beautiful tourist resort, and the mopeds rental may be one part of the tourism in Torseau. And the majority of the usage of traffic is mopeds because of the tourism industry and the small dimension of this area. As a result of that, a little limit of the mopeds rental will largely reduce the usage of mopeds, which will certainly cut the number of the mopeds accidents. However, in this argument, we just don’t know the detailed information about the two islands, and may be the people mostly go out by car because Balmer is much larger than Torseau.

In conclusion, the suggestion calls for more information and proof to be based on. And other people who use mopeds as a transportation method should be investigated to make a more effective plan to reduce the number of the addicents.