【1010G精英组】ARGUMENT186 B组回收站

weaselUID: 2739489

26日13点前

钱钱去米国UID: 2761990

In this statement, the author concludes that it is taking vitamin D and calcium daily that decreases the bone fractures. Because the study show that a group of French women in their eighties after taking daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium having a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age. At the first glance, the advice seems reasonable, but we can certainly find several fallacies after further analysis and proof.

First of all, there is no evidence that can provides the study’s premise is reliable. The bone mass decreases with people become old may hardly lead to more vulnerable to bone fractures. The author cannot offer any evidence that can provides decreasing of bone mass causes bone fractures. It may be for other reasons, for instance, when people are old they may not as agile as they were young, it is possible that old people may more easily fall down than young people. So that they may also more easily get bone fractures. Seeing in that way, the decreasing of bone mass may not cause the bone fractures, at least it may not the only reason for old people’s bone fractures.

Secondly, even assuming that the
study’s premise that decreasing of bone mass causes bone fractures is reliable, a direct correlation between bone mass decrease and take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily, dose not necessary prove that the latter can solve the former. There is no evidence show that taking twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily can protect bone mass form decreasing, and in order to reducing bone fractures of old people. What’s worse, taking twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily may do hurt to people’s health.

At last, the study uses the group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents seems inappropriate. This group cannot represent all of the old people. First because these old women living in nursing-home and enjoying well serving of nursing-home, they may not need to do something dangerous and anything that may causes bone fracture. These old women can avoid bone fracture that caused by mobility. And these women participated in a light weightlifting program at the same time. This may also good for reducing their fractures. It is difficult to conclude that taking twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily is the only reason for a lower rate of hip fractures. All above can lead to a lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.

To sum up, the suggestion calls for more information and proof to be based on in order to offer more evidences to provide the rationality of both premise and conclusion. Besides, the author should try to use a appropriate representative that can reflect the whole group of old people.

sola-nanaUID: 2744594

Given the result of a telephone survey ofautomobile factory workers indicates that older employees were less likely toreport that having a supervisor present increases their productivity, the presidentof Professional Printing Company suggests that his company should hire mainlyolder employees to increase productivity and save the spent of hiring supervisors.Albeit this argument seems reasonable at the first glance, with furtheranalysis, you may find this argument flies in the face of other possiblereasons of the result of the survey and disadvantages of hiring older employees.

First of all, I have to turn a doubtedattitude to the way that the survey was undertaken. Granted that telephones arewidely used in daily life as its convenience and fastness, they have also beenone of the main tools in cheating. As it feels more relaxed and unstressed whentalking through telephone lines, and there is not a record to put down what youhave said, so one does not have to feel guilty when he tells lies. Furthermore,with no eye contact which is an important way of communication, it is easier togain the trust of others as voice is the only thing that one has to pretend duringcheating. Similarly, what the employees report in the telephone survey may not beconvinced as the speaker says. No matter the answers of the employees areintentional or unconscious, the result could not be taken as a basis of thesuggestion of more employments to older employees.

Even if the result of telephone survey thatolder employees are more productive where there are less supervisors at presentcould be trusted, the speaker could not make the conclusion so hasty as thereis no comparison of the productivity between younger and older employees. The resultof the telephone survey only shows the comparison of productivity of their ownwith or without the presence of immediate supervisors. Therefore, there is nocomparability of the productivity between older and younger employees accordingto the outcome of the survey. It is highly possible that the younger’s productivityis as twice or more times as the older’s as more vigor, energies and moreadvanced thinking patterns. The speaker should provide more direct evidence toprove the advancement in employing the older.

The president also fails to consider thedifference between automobile factory and printing company. As the survey onthe productivity is undertaken in the automobile factory while the suggestionbased on the survey is given to the printing company. In the automobilefactory, more labor work is needed rather than administration skills and repairmenskills in the printing company. From my personal experiences, printing companyis more automatic than the automobile factory and there is more need ofadministration staff and less labor workers in the company than in the factory.Moreover, labor workers may show more productivity when driven by external forcewhile administration staff may not. The president should cite a surveyconducted in a printing company with the same conditions with his company.

Finally, there is no mention about thedisadvantages about the older employees in the recommendation, which is not acomplete analysis in the question of how old the employees should be. Even ifthe productivity of the older employees without the presence of supervisors ishigher than the younger, it is possible that the company should pay moremedical expenditure and pay more pensions on the old than employing the youngeremployees. The recommendation from the president mask other possible expenditureon the older employees, maybe the money is less in employment of younger with supervisorsthan employment of the older.

On balance, this recommendation is givenwithout enough analysis as it overlooks many of the important factors. To bolsterhis recommendation, the president should first, undertake the survey throughface-to-face talking rather than telephones; second, make several groupsincluding employees at different ages in order to compare the productivity of them;third, make sure the survey is conducted in the company with the same conditionof his company; forth, take other expenditure of the older employees intoconsideration.

weaselUID: 2739489

Through seemly reasonable investigation, the author attempts to persuade president of Professional Printing Company that because old-aged, especially over 50, workers can keep higher productive efficiency whether supervisors are in the presence or not, by hiring mainly older employees more money can be saved for the reducing required supervisors, and productivity can also be increased at the same time. However, lacking appropriate and essential evidence to support the author’s conclusion, the argument goes with several flaws.

In the first place, the correlation between age and performance under the sight of supervisors is open to be doubted. When facing with the survey, no one won’t come out a question: how many people did the inquiry refer to? Too few sample content will not only gain series of imprecise data, but also definitely make the following statement meaningless. Besides, at mere mention of the survey’s regular data, the ranks of workers should also be taken into consideration. It is entirely possible that due to long time fight in the company, large amounts of older workers have promoted to a high position. As a result, they rarely work in the presence of supervisors or they themselves may be just supervisors so that no one of them regards the supervisors’ presence as a factor can influence their work. In contrast, younger workers in a relatively low position must work under supervision and help. Thus they can not ignore the existing of supervisors and have to receive their instruction and order.

Next, even though the investigation is worthy believing, no reasons can support that old-aged workers can work more productively than the younger. People who do not need supervisors’ instruction and supervision can not prove that at the absence of supervisors old workers keeps a proper productivity and there is circumstance that they do not observe orders and always works with a very low efficiency relying on their old seniority. In reality, as a common sense, compared to the younger, they may lack vigor and updating skills, and cannot follow the pace of the younger. Therefore the author can not make such a conclusion that his measure can improve productivity undoubtly.

Finally, whether the company can save money may not ensue so easily. We suppose that all hired old workers can keep a high efficiency at the absence of supervisors. Does the printing company really need fewer supervisors? It is probably not. Supervisors’ work is not just to give instructions to subordinates, they are also in charge of tasks’ arranging, products’ inspection and so forth. Moreover, considering the universal health of the older, more money may be utilized in keeping their sustainable work. If a large number of them enjoy a vacation with pay. Can you image how much money will be spent? Thus, such factors can not be ignored when referring to the expenditure to these older employees.

All in all, if the author wants the president to adopt his advice, more relevant should be provided. Otherwise, no one will ensure that such measure can really works.

morning8427UID: 2725373

In this argument, based on the telephone survey data of automobile factory workers, which indicates older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. The author draws a conclusion that their printing company could increase productivity and save money if they hire mainly older employees. At first glance, it seems reasonable and persuasive. While, in further analysis, you could find it is limited and lack of appropriate evidence.

First of all, the way and validity of survey is questionable. Nowadays the way of telephone investigation is widely used. Undoubtedly it is a fast and convenient way in business. But it is well known the biggest shortage of telephone investigation is that you cannot see the people you contact. Compare to the face-to-face investigation, it is hard to feel the real emotion of people without eye contact or facial expression. So we have to query the validity of survey. If the time of survey is at an improper time, for example, the employee is very busy, the selection is likely random, without thinking. Or the employee is kidding, make the opposite choice. In that case, the result of survey is meaningless or invalidity. In addition, how many employees did the statistic refer to? Usually there are large amounts of employees in a factory. So if the statistical of survey refer to less than 5% of the total number of workers in the factory, do you think it is meaningful? On the other hand, if the statistical of survey concentrate on a single department or team, it cannot represents the real result.

Secondly, the author should consider the real situation and circumstance. In automobile factory, real situation is possible like that most of older employees are at a higher position, even some of older employees are supervisors. In that case, few of them need to work in the presence of supervisors so that few older employees think having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Moreover, assume that this case makes sense in automobile factory, however, what will things like in Professional Printing Company? The circumstance in the two factories may be totally different. We can imagine that automobile factory may be need more workers or experienced people, while the Professional Printing Company may be need more young worker or advanced machine. In that case, this survey result will not be suitable for Professional Printing Company. As a result, they cannot increase productivity and save money even hire more older workers.

Finally, could hire older employees really increase productivity and help Professional Printing Company save money? Currently no evidence can show that older people can be more productive or efficient than young people. Even though older employees can be more be more skilled or have more experience than young people, compare to young workers, they usually not as vigorous as younger people. Actually most of older employees are eager to get a promotion, instead of increasing productivity. So more older employees may want to be supervisors and it will also lead to higher salary, not save money. In addition, for older employees, company may be needed more medical fees or pension for them, it is undoubtedly increase the expenditure of company.

In all, the recommendation is lack of enough evidence and investigation. So it is cannot ensure that this will work out to be right in Printing Company.

youngstoneUID: 2670818

In this argument, the director of personnel recommends to hire older employees to increase productivity and save costs. To bolster the recommendation, the director cites the result of the telephone survey that older employees were less likely to report that their productivity would increase due to a supervisor’s presence. Clearly examining the evidences, we may find they are not only suspicious but also contribute little to the final conclusion.

In the first place, the telephone survey lacks credibility because the size of the sample might be small and the forthright of each respondent are not well guaranteed. The survey may only cover a small portion of automobile factory workers, thus they can hardly represent the whole employees. In addition, it is entirely possible that the respondents are less likely to tell the truth since the survey is, to some degree, not anonymous. On one hand, for older workers, they might refuse to admit that they would be influenced by the supervisor even if they really do. On the other hand, for younger employees, they might not dare to suspect the value of a supervisor or have not experienced working without a supervisor. Since the size and the credibility is suspicious, the director can hardly conclude that employing more older people will increase productivity and save cost.

In the second place, even though the survey reflects the real condition, the fact that older employees do not need a supervisor to increase their productivity does not necessarily indicate the older employees are more productive. Since it is the actual productivity of a worker that influence the profitability of the company, not to what extent the productivity increases. It is entirely possible that a young employee without a supervisor is more productive that an old employee with a supervisor. Since no information about the actual productivity of employees of different ages is offered, older employees might not be that productive.

Last but not least, even assuming that hiring more employees would increase the total productivity, the automobile factory and the printing company are not comparable. The conclusion drawn from the automobile factory can not hastily apply to the printing company. Besides, high productivity does not necessarily lead to low costs. The employment of older people may cause more costs such as the health insurance. Common sense tells me that older people are more vulnerable, thus the probable diseases or death, which will certainly increase the costs of labors, should be taken into account.
To sum up, the conclusion that hiring older employees will increase productivity and save costs is unwarranted. To substantiate the conclusion, the director should provide the actual productivity of people of different ages. Besides, the director should prove that the automobile factory and printing company are comparable by offering similarities of the two. Finally, the probable costs of hiring old employees should be taken into account to assess the total costs of labors.