argument中文提纲！求高手改！

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本人今天开始写argument中文提纲，希望能得到高手的指正！万分感谢！
1、The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
逻辑错误：
首先，在P的运动服饰销量好，健身俱乐部成员多，不一定说明P地区的人们喜爱运动，注重身体健康。首先，因为大部分运动服饰穿着都比较舒适，可能P地区的人们在工作的时候都西装革履，他们回到家里喜欢穿宽松舒适的衣服，而不是因为他们喜欢运动注重身体健康而去购买运动服饰。其次，去健身俱乐部健身的人不一定喜欢运动，他们可能是过度肥胖的人为了减肥而去健身，也可能是病人应医生要求去增强体制。因此P地区运动服饰销量好不代表P地区居民喜欢运动注重身体健康。
其次，就算P地区的居民喜欢运动、注重健康生活，也不代表P地区的居民喜欢健康食品。在P地区的人们有自己的习俗、饮食爱好，公司的健康食品可能不适合他们的口味，营养成份可能也不符合P地区居民的要求。公司决策层没有考虑到这一点就决定在P开设新店，可能不会有很好的销量。
再次，P地区学生被要求参加ffl计划，不一定代表他们需要健康食品。因为可能他们喜欢junk food而导致很多学生过度肥胖，所以父母要求他们去参加ffl计划减肥，而并没有通过使用健康食品而减肥。如此一来，公司在P开设新店可能是无人问津的。
一家食品公司如果要在一个地区开发新市场，首先要对这个地区的饮食习惯、人们的口味要求、消费水平、市场需求做一个全面的调查。如果像该公司这样，仅仅依靠过去的经验，运动服饰健身俱乐部的统计和一个ffl计划就武断做出开设新店的做法，是不会成功的。
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2、The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
首先，B地区对房屋外表颜色的规定是7年以前的事情，而地产升值的原因不单单是由于房屋颜色而升价的，有可能是因为B地区经济发展迅速，变成商业区，很多公司在B地区开设办事处，对地产的需求增加导致地产价格升高，也有可能是因为这七年间B地区开发了很多豪华别墅，又加上B自身优美的环境和便利的交通吸引了很多富商投资B地区的房地产导致B地区房产价值升高。
就算B地区房产价值升高是因为B地区7年前对房屋外表颜色的规定，不代表在DA地区，同样的规定会带来相同的结果。比如可能DA地区的经济并不发达，而工业较为发达，不是投资房地产的好地区。
就算B地区房地产翻了三倍是因为7年前B地区对房屋外表颜色的规定，但这也只是这7年的事情，不代表将来这一措施能带来地产价格的提高。
总之，一个地区房产价格的变化是多种因素造成的，不可能单单只是一个房屋颜色的规定而造成的，经济发展、地段位置、都会影响地产价格。
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3、The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."
首先，论者没有提到法学院的毕业生的总体数量，只是说去大的合资公司的法学院毕业生降低了百分之十五，其次论者也没有说明具体有多少法学院毕业生去了小公司工作，只是说去小公司工作的法学院毕业生增长了一定数量。如果法学院毕业生的总体数量不多，那这两个变化可能只是两三个人的差别，这种差别可能是由于法学院毕业生总数量的差别造成的。
其次，论者没有提到法学院毕业生选择到小公司工作的理由是他们在那里能得到更大的工作满足感这一论据的来源，这明显是一个无理假设（unwarranted assumption）。
再次，论者提到的调查犯了biased-sample fallacy和insufficient sample fallacy。首先，这个调查只是针对法学院的一年级新生，而一年级新生的回复不能代表法学院毕业生的回复。这是biased-sample fallacy。其次，这个调查针对的是一个顶尖的法学院，M地区可能存在很多法学院，一个顶尖法学院的调查结果不能体现M地区所有法学院。这是insufficient sample fallacy。
报纸上的这篇文章片面的分析了法学院毕业生就业情况

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4、The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."
首先，一个公司的房产中介不是多多益善，A公司在一个城镇有40个房产中介，这样可能导致分布密度大，面向人群产生交集，从而导致公司内部的竞争，而这种竞争不能带来利润，而可能带来麻烦。比如两个不同的中介可能以不同的标价出售同一幢二手房，那么消费者就会选择出价比较低的中介，如此一来公司的利润就降低了。而F公司只有25个，这25个中介公司可能是由F公司通过充分的市场调查所作出的开设的中介的数量。这25个公司面向不同的消费人群，目标明确，这样带来的效益也就大大增加了。所以中介数量的对比体现不出A公司better than F公司
其次，论者提到去年A公司的利润是F公司的两倍，而这只不过是去年一年，另外论者提到F公司的员工大部分是part-time clerks，而正是由于part-time clerks，因此F公司在销售二手房方面可能会有更大优势，比如这些part-time clerks接触到的人群更多，包括他们second job 的同事们，这样他们就把二手房销售信息传播给了更多人。而有可能正是因为公司的规模A比F大，导致了A公司的利润比F公司的多，不能说明F公司inferior to A公司，也不能说明A公司售房效率比F公司高。
再次，论者提到了平均住房销售价A公司比F公司高，并没提到两个公司出售的是什么样的住房，是高等住宅还是普通公寓apartment？如果A公司卖的是高等住宅而F公司出售的是普通公寓，那这种差别是肯定存在的，而不能说明A公司preferable than F公司。
论者说十年前他用四个月通过F卖掉一座房子，去年他用一个月通过A卖掉另一座房子，这个论据犯了 “all thing are equal” fallacy。十年前，可能由于通讯技术不发达，F是通过挂在公司外的宣传板上公布二手房交易信息，只有路过或者专门去F公司购买二手房的购房者能看到这种信息，这样交易方法效率不会高。而去年，在发达的信息时代，A公司通过网络、电视、报纸等途径发布二手房交易信息，能接触到二手房交易信息的人不仅仅是二手房购买者，还有房产投资者，这样一来，二手房交易的效率也就大大提高了。论者所提的两次卖房的经历的背景不同，不能通过这种比较来说明A公司卖房比F公司快。
两个公司的对比要充分考虑各种条件，如公司规模，效率，利润，人员配置，经营理念，政策决定等等方面。不充分考虑这些条件，不能合理的对两个公司作出公平的对比。
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5、The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce
a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
这篇的逻辑错误搞得不是很清楚，不知如何下手~
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6、The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
论者提到tremendously profitable enterprise，不论任何enterprise，在一定法律和经济规律限制下，利润应该都是在合理范围内的。况且，光凭在文中提到的几个论据，这些论据我将会在下文一一反驳，就得到tremendously profitable enterprise这一结论是十分荒谬的。
首先，去年夏天在M开的jazz festival有超过十万人参加，但是论者没说这十万人是从哪里来的，他们不一定都是M的人，可能是别的地方来的jazz amateurs。因此这一论据不能说明jazz在M是extremely popular。
其次，就算M的很多人喜欢jazz，不代表他们一定要去jazz club 或者他们提议要开的C note club去欣赏Jazz音乐，这些喜欢jazz的人可以在家里，通过CD或者radio，as the article mentioned, the highest-rated radio program in Monroe, jazz nightly, to enjoy the ___ of jazz music。因此，说C Note would have the local market all to itself 是站不住脚的。
再次，就算M很多人喜欢jazz，也不代表他们会每年花1000刀在jazz entertainment上。作者提到的 study 是nationwide，作者assumed that characteristics of a group apply to each group member。
无论开办什么样的club，都要通过充分细致的市场调查，考虑到开设地区的消费水平，人们的兴趣爱好等等方面，然后通过       向银行提出贷款，银行在通过计划书得出是否要给予贷款的决定。仅仅通过上述几个方面的前提，不能为这些人贷到款。


这是我一个上午的收获！希望有高手指点！谢谢！

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7、The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

At first glance，this letter intent to establish a position that residents of Clearview should choice Ann Green rather than Frank Braun based on the idea that the residents believe the former will pay more attention to the local environment issues seems logical. Although after a detailed analysis of this letter, I found that this letter mere scratch the surface of the issue of the mayoral election by only pointed out severe ambiguous evidence.
首先，来信人只告诉我们，去年C的工厂数量增加了，但是没有明确指出有多少工厂。或许本来C只有两三家工厂，这些工厂带来的空气污染相比C的大量的森林覆盖率是及其甚微的。
其次，来信人还是没有明确指出，来医院治疗呼吸系统疾病的病人的数量，只是告诉我们增加了百分之25。或许，本来C地区的呼吸系统病人相对于C的总人口只有少数人，这增加的百分之二十五或许只是几个。而且，作者也没有指明这些呼吸系统疾病的病人的病因，或许他们是因为过敏性呼吸系统疾病如花粉过敏而得的呼吸系统疾病。
再次，作者犯了hasty generalization fallacy。就算C地区因为工厂数量增加而导致了空气污染加重，并不能说明选了AG，这些环境问题就肯定会解决。作者在这里并没有提到AG的任何资料，光依据AG是GEC的成员，无法判断AG是一个对于环境问题会作出怎样判断的人，也就不能立马说明环境问题会因为AG的上任而迎刃而解。
A mayoral election is basically an issue that needs a completely consideration including the candidates qualities, political tendency and so forth. Merely based on biased opinion can’t justify a candidate’s qualification of the post of mayor.
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8、The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
论者这篇备忘录的结论是OI应该购买Mfood，特别是DS，并在全国范围内推广。但是，论者得到这个结论的前提却是有问题的。
首先，论者没有提到Mfood公司的规模，只说去年该公司的利润有20%的增长而得出这个公司有强劲的增长潜力，但这不代表Mfood公司是个大公司，有能力供应某种产品全国的销售。
其次，就算Mfood公司是个大公司，有能力提供某种产品的全国销售，就说明该公司在国内某一相对较小的地区的best-selling product会在全国范围内收到欢迎吗？不！在各个地区，有着不同的饮食习惯和口味特点，不可能有哪种食品能在全国范围内都有良好销量的。
再次，论者以14-25的年龄段的人是snack food的最大消费群体为前提，要求I公司大量购买Mfood，但是论者没有考虑到snack food是一个很大的市场，单单是Mfood的话，消费者的选择变少了，不会有很好的销量的。
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9、The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
这篇OU一个院长的备忘录，讲到OU大学十五年前的一项评教的措施，导致潜在的雇主认为OU的毕业生没有AU的毕业生素质高。这个逻辑看上去合理，但是经不起深究。
    首先，教授给学生的评分增加了30%不一定是由于评价措施的实施而导致的，而可能是因为OU的生源质量提高了，学校学习风气比以前好了，学生成绩普遍提高了。
其次，就算教授给学生的评分增加了是由于评价措施的实施导致的，这个评教措施是15年前实施的，不一定在现在还影响这教授给学生的评分。在那时，评教可能会造成OU的教授给学生的评分偏高，但是不代表现在OU的教授给学生的评分也偏高。
再次，论者没有给出potential employers 认为 OU学生的高分低能的证据，这是一个straw man fallacy。就算potential employers 认为ou学生的高分低能，也不能代表这是导致AU的graduates比OU graduates在找工作上更成功的原因，这可能是因为AU本来整体就比OU好。
另外，论者希望学校应该像AU一样停止评教措施来提高OU的毕业生就业率，他并没有考虑到AU和OU之间的差别，这是一个faulty analogy。
为了提高一个学校毕业生的就业率，不仅要考虑到学校自身的教学水平，还要在就业方面培养学生，让学生在进入社会前做好充分准备。
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10、The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
这是一篇以不充分的premises写给Bnewspaper的关于提议政府在奶制品方面需要制定法律法规来规范市场。
首先，牛奶的价格和牛奶的品质、出产的地区、加工的技术和农场投资等方面有关。而作者在文中没有提到这一点。仅仅因为十年之间，EFM的牛奶价格从1.5增加到3.0，就得出政府需要防止奶农获得过高的利润而制定法律法规规范牛奶零售价格这一结论，显得十分hasty。作者没有充分考虑牛奶价格增加的原因，可能是因为奶牛的价格增加了，也可能是因为饲料的价格上升了，从而导致了牛奶的价格增加了。既然产奶的成本增加了，那么政府制定法律法规限制牛奶零售价格就损害了奶农的利益。
其次，就算政府需要防止奶农获得过高利润而制定法律来闺房牛奶零售价格，这些法律不能同时保证低价和足够的牛奶供应。因为牛奶价格低了，不代表产奶成本降低了，如果产奶成本不变，那么奶农的获利少了，可能导致奶农在产奶方面投资不足，从而造成牛奶供应减少。另一方面，在利润减少的情况下，有些奶农可能开始考虑如何压缩成本，比如在牛奶中掺水，这样就会损害消费者的利益。
再次，文中提到B的农业部说全国的奶制品农场相比十年前增长了百分之二十五和同时期，牛奶价格在EFM的销售价格从1.5增加到3.0之间没有什么必然联系。作者犯了一个non sequitur fallacy。
作者的结论看上去是合理的，但是仔细分析，就会发现这个结论会导致很多次生问题。