Definitely, a victory 小组第2次作业 Argument45 By9号wdx19861106

wdx19861106UID: 2821198

Argument45：
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
1、 1、  全球变暖与deer没有必然的联系；也许温度升高，草长多了，增加deer的数量由于其他原因使deer减少了
2、  2、数据来自于猎人，也许大量捕杀是数量减少，准确度？
3、  3、我们怎么知道age-old migration模式？怎么得出的现在的鹿跟不上age-old migration？也许他们的途径每年都变化呢？也许他们会根据情况而变化，他们的生存能力很强的。


This article concludes that the reason of the decline in arctic deer populations is that they can’t follow their ago-old migration patterns when they from one island to another. To justify this conclusion the arguer notes that the declining of deer population, the data was come from the local hunters, coincides with the global warming trends. I find this argument logically unconvincing in some respects as follow.
First of all, why does the global warming leads to reduce the deer population? As we know, the warming temperature in winter can promote the growth of the flora and fungus. Maybe the warming in the arctic can promote the growth of the food of deer, and this will increase their population not the adverse. There are no evidence in the statement can prove the real relationship between the global warming and the decrease of deer population.
Secondly, the data comes from the hunters who are hunter deer for live, and besides, they are not the specialist in statistics. Can we assure the data are credible? It is entirely possible that the data just a part of the total deer in the arctic, and some deer are live in some island which is beyond the extent of the hunters’ hunting area. If so, this fact would further undermine the conclusion.
Finally, the arguer falsely equates the deer can’t follow the age-old migration patterns with the population reduce. Maybe the ice road of the deer changed by the global warming, but we can’t derive from the statement that the deer followed their age-old migration path every year. And we all know that the adaptability of the animal is strong. So maybe they could find their way by themselves every year. If so, even the deer unable follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the population wouldn’t cut down.
In sum, the argument is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To strength it the arguer must make more investigation in the arctic to find the real reason about the decrease of deer population, and take some experiments to find whether the deer reduce relative the global warming.

GassaUID: 2498402

Argument45：
Thefollowing appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arcticdeer live on islands in Canada'sarctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to islandduring the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough tosustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of theyear, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer totravel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, thedeer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent globalwarming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that thedecline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to followtheir age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."



This articleconcludes that the reason of the decline in arctic deer populations is thatthey can’t follow their ago-old migration patterns when they from one island to another. （这句话没动词）To justify this conclusion the arguernotes that the declining of deer population, the data was come from thelocal hunters, coincides with the global warming trends. I find this argumentlogically unconvincing in some respects as follow.
Firstof all, why does the global warming leads to reduce the deer population? As weknow, the warming temperature in winter can promote the growth of the flora andfungus. Maybe the warming in the arctic can promote the growth of the food ofdeer, and this will increase their population not the adverse. There are noevidence in the statement can prove the real relationship between the globalwarming and the decrease of deer population.
Secondly,the data comes from the hunters who are hunter deer for live,（这个文章没说过吧？according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations aredeclining.） and besides, they are not the specialist in statistics. Can we assurethe data are credible? It is entirely possible that the data just a part of thetotal deer in the aArctic （北极大写）, andsome deer are live in some islands which isbeyond the extent of the hunters’ hunting area. （我以为划线部分改成where the local hunters hardly reach）If so, this fact would further undermine the conclusion.
Finally,the arguer falsely equates the deer can’t follow the age-old migration patternswith the population reduce. Maybe the ice roadsof the deer are changed by the global warming, butwe can’t derive from the statement that the deer followed their age-oldmigration path every year. And we all know that the adaptability of the animalis strong. So maybe they could find their way by themselves every year. If so,even the deer unable to follow their age-oldmigration patterns across the frozen sea, the population wouldn’t
won’t cut down.
Insum, the argument is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands.To strength it the arguer must make more investigation in the arctic to findthe real reason about the decrease of deer population, and take someexperiments to find whether the deer reduce relative the global warming.


文章整体思路比较清晰，逻辑错误点也都基本找出来了。如果能把文章中间3段安排的更有条例一些会更好，语言加一些润色会更好。最后的总结段落的改进方法有些过于笼统，要是能更有针对性一些会更好。加油！