Definitely, a victory 小组第2次作业 Argument45 By 5号Frankie(Frankie)

Frankie0616UID: 2763738

Argument:
45.The following appeared as an editorialin a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands inCanada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island toisland during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warmenough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least someof the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing thedeer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters,the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recentglobal warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can concludethat the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unableto follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

1. Maybe the melt of ice does not influencethe deers.
2. Maybe some other reasons cause thedeline in deer population.
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In this editorial, the author tells us thatthe recent global warming trends directly lead to the decline in arctic deerpopulations. To bolster his perspective, the author point out that globalwarming trend causes the sea ice to melt, causing the result that deer areunable to move over ice from land to land. Though the author's reason seemssound enough to support his own idea, we can still find several logical flawswhich render it questionable.

The threshold problem with the argumentinvolves lack of evidence to support the idea that deer cannot move across thefrozen sea after the sea ice melts. No information has been provided to showhow serious the consequence led by the global warming trends is. Perhaps theArctic is cold enough that global warming affects the place too little that icedoes not melt
at all, or perhaps thoughice in some certain places have melted, there is still a large tract of seacovered by the ice, enabling deer to move across the frozen island. That is tosay, without giving consideration to the seriousness of the global warming inthe Arctic, the author may not draw the conclusion that deer cannot move fromland to land across the ice.

Another problem I would like to note isthat even if ice really melts because of the global warming, it does not necessarilymean that deer should die. It is entirely possible that the global warmingcontribute to the growing of plants that the deer do not need to travel toanother place to find food. In a word, if no evidence can bolster the idea thatthe deer is certain to die unless they move across the sea, I cannot bepersuaded that the decline in deer population is a result of sea melting.

What is also worth noticing is that theauthor fails to take a host of other possible explanations into account. Evenif the global warming really cause some deer to death, it is entirely possiblethat some other reasons should take major responsible for the decline in deerpopulation. Perhaps some predators which feed on arctic deer begin to flourishin the arctic region because of some certain reasons, or perhaps hunters killtoo many deer per year. Unless evidences have been given to suggest that noother major reasons lead to the decline in population, the author may not drawthe conclusion hastily that global warming is the major reason for the decreasein deer population.

To sum up, the editorial relies on certaindoubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster therecommendation, the author should give many more specific details to convincehis theory. On the one hand, information should be given to support that deerare sure to death if the global warming causes sea melting in the Arctic. Onthe other hand, the author should rule out all other possible explanations forthe decrease in deer population.