argument45 限时 第四次作业 请多指教!谢谢!

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Argument45
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
时间: 30min
词数: 509
提纲: 1.猎人报告不可靠
        2.全球变暖无必然联系
        3.其他原因需考虑
The editorial concludes that it is the global warming that lead to the decline of Arctic deer which can be proved by the fact that the decline is happening along with the global warming and the deer number is truly declining by the reports from hunters. Although the deduction seems logical, some fallacies render it unconvincing.

The author cites that the phenomenon that the deer number is declining is reported by the local hunters instead of scientific reporters. Yet, it is possible that the hunters have made a wrong conclusion. As we know, hunters only move in a certain area. It is possible that the deer are moving to some where else for some certain reasons instead of declining. Moreover, how could it possible that the hunters notice the population of the deer exactly as their work is to hunt animals, especially when they don’t hunt deer?

What’s more, the article suffers a “after that, then that” fallacy. The author doesn’t provide any necessary connections between the global warming and the decline of the deer. It is possible that they happen at the same time coincidently. In fact, the author rests the conclusion on three assumptions which is actually weak. First, the global warming will affect the Arctic area, which is really unsubstantiated. As we know, even the average of the global temperature is rising; it doesn’t mean that the temperature in certain area will increase. The second is that if we concede that the temperature in Arctic area has decreased, the temperature will be high enough that the ice between islands will be melt. In fact, as common sense informs us, the temperature in Arctic area is much below the zero. Little increase will not lead to the melt of the ice. Thirdly, the author thinks that the melt of the ice will surely make the deer in one island die. However, as the article tells us, the increased temperature may make the island livable all the year round if the temperature is high enough for the living of grass all the year round, which is the food of the deer.

Thirdly, even if the deer number is really increasing, the author overlooks other possibilities of the decrease of the deer. It is possible that too much hunting may just be one reason why the number of the deer is declining. What’s more, such as environment pollution, too much human activities will also influence the living of the deer and finally lead to the decreasing of the deer. Or perhaps that the deer themselves are suffering from some kind of ills or that some animals taken there by human beings from somewhere else are occupying their living spaces or resources or even just eat them.

In sum, the author doesn’t eliminate other possibilities of the declining and make some hasty generalizations. To support its view, the author will have to prove that the number of the Arctic deer is really declining through scientific study and that the global warming is the main factor that contributes to the result.