6.27 【Flyer小组第三次作业】Argument 118

MaryWongUID: 2619999

TOPIC: ARGUMENT118 - The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.

"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists."

In this newsletter, the author recommends switching the location of yearly winter conference to other city rather than Sun City. To justify this conclusion the arguer notes that temperatures would higher than average level the next winter. He also cites other evidences that more tourists will arrive at Sun City and thus result in bad traffic situation and crowded public places and hotels. On the basis of these various evidences the author concludes infers that the attendance at the conference will be reduced. I find this argument logically unconvincing in several respects.
First of all, higher-than -average temperatures do not necessarily indicate that the winter in Sun City is warm enough to share the sunshine on along the beach. Perhaps there is only less than 5 centigrade higher than usual and people will still suffer cold wind blowing heavily there.
Secondly, even if there is more tourism in Sun City, the letter contains no evidence to support the assumption that the transportation and hotels of the city can not stand the popularity. It is very likely that as a famous travel destination, Sun City has an excellent traffic and accommodation service system which is convenient and capable. For that matter, perhaps tourist can easily find parks and restaurants whenever they need.
Moreover, even though assuming those inferences above, it is little indication that some inconvenient will reduce the conference attendance. The author does not offer us any principle of members of the meeting who make the decision and evaluate the meaning of the conference. It is entirely possible that faculties are eager to get together to have an important discussion about the main relevant subjects and Sun City is the only city they familiar with since it is the traditional place in which they never meet any uncomfortable cases. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that no matter how harsh the situation is, all faculties will attempt to against all odds to attend the conference in time.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is not persuasive. To strengthen his claim the author must provide clearer evidence that some essential facts hinder the holding of conference in Sun City rather than merely the predicting higher temperature and show assurance that the change of location will bring more benefits but not trouble.