Argument39 - 7.12 小组作业 远程学习

gtjohnUID: 2813321

TOPIC: ARGUMENT39 - The following appeared in a memorandumfrom the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled inlong-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior yearsin expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely becauseinstruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive videocomputer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana Collegehas diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increaseenrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College,we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs likethose at Omni."

1. Omni远程注册多了不代表总的注册多了。而且跟宿舍教室费用没有必然的联系。
2. Humana为什么注册少了，费用为什么高没搞清楚
3. 学人家搞远程不一定能能改变现状
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In this memo the author concludes that Humana Collegeshould follow the behavior of Omni University to start andpromote long-distance degree programs in order to increase enrollment anddecrease the financial cost. To support his conclusion, he points out that thesignificant decrease of expenditures of Omni links to the increasing enrollmentof long-distance degree programs. This evidence lacks of persuasion afterfurther reflection.

To begin with, the increased number of people who enrolledto long-distance degree programs at Omni University does not meanthe total enrollment has increased, and the connection to the decrease ofexpenditures for dormitory and classroom space is doubted. A possible conditionis that, many people decide to transfer to the long-distance degree programs ratherthan pursue current one which asks them to attend the class and obey theschedule. The data for those people is lacking, and if the increased number ofstudents who enrolled in long-distance degree is less than the anticipated decreasenumber of students who will not choose current programs, it would cause a loserather than more revenue. In addition, Omni may rebuild their dormitory andclassroom last year, new buildings cost less for repair and maintenance, thiscould explain the decrease expenditures of dormitory and classroom spacebecause these equipments were used infrequently.

Moreover, we need to know why the enrollment at Humana Collegehas diminished and what caused the problem of budget deficits. If the studentsunwilling to enroll in Humana for the less reputation or lack of good teachers,they would not enroll in long-distance degree programs neither. Besides, if long-distancedegree programs cause more current students transfer to them, it can not changethe situation of limited budget. Commonly, old school houses cost more than newbuildings for regular repair and maintenance. If the reason for the increasing costsof maintaining buildings is they are too old, the cost would continually risein future.

Finally, there is not enough evidence to ensure that theenrollment will increase and the budget deficits will be solved if Humana initiateand actively promote long-distance degree programs. As some reasons have beenmentioned above, they can not promise there will be enough students will takethe programs and current students will no transfer to the programs. Besides,long-distance degree programs would aggravate the budget deficits becauseHumana may have to buy the video computers and corollary equipments. In addition,no evidence show whether there are some colleges who have provide long-distancedegree programs already or not, if the answer is yes, we have to know are thereany strategy or method to make sure Humana will survive in the competitivemarket of long-distance degree programs.

The author don't provide enough evident to support hisconclusion that the enrollment will increase and the enrollment and the budgetdeficits will be solved through initiate long-distance degree programs. Heneeds to make more survey and analysis to confirm how many students will chooselong-distance degree programs in Humana and the cost of setting up theseprograms.

明显感觉各段之间没有太大关联，而且纯是在找可能的反例。。。
求指点