arguement关于ETS范文逻辑的求助

ForkikiUID: 2851928

ETS官方范文中的一题为：

Six months ago the region of Forestvilleincreased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways byten miles per hour.
Since that changetook effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by15 percent.
But the speed limit inElmsford, a region neighboring Forestville,remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the samesix-month period.
Therefore, if thecitizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents onthe region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville'sspeed limit to what it was before the increase.

其中6分范文给出的论证是说arguer忽略了考虑以下因素：

Such alternatives may include the fact that there areless reliable cars traveling the roads in Forestville,or that the age bracket of those in Elmsford may be more conducive to drivingsafely.

以及

Forestville's highway is in an area ofmore dangerous curves,

这里，我存在的一个疑问是：6个月的时间不会显著使Forestville的驾驶员质量普遍下降或者是地形变差，那如果这样的话，这些例举的因素对于交通事故率的提升来说应该是没有多大影响的呀……

如果我上面所说的成立，那么6分范文的论证逻辑就有问题了……还望各位寄托上的大牛来探讨一番……

lingli_xiaoaiUID: 172506

不会显著使Forestville的驾驶员质量普遍下降或者是地形变差
why not?

how about  temporal construction near the highway or mountain collapase  triggered by heavy rainfalls only affected Forestville?

or a new high school opened within that 6 month in that area, then more restless driver....
or there was a huge accidents which killed more than 100 people happened in 1 year ago,  then it is reasonable that people in that area starting driving more carefully afterwards. then people started to forget about the accident, thinking since nothing really happened for several months, then don't have to be careful anymore, thus accident rates increase again.

those are just possible alternatives, that are impossible to rule out completely.

ForkikiUID: 2851928

2# lingli_xiaoai
Thank you for your response~~

确实我的思维非常局限……就这篇6分范文提出的可能情形来说，是完全成立的，

但是，当他论证这些可能情形的时候，却用了如下的例子：

Perhaps Forestville's highway is in an area of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections or merging points where accidents are more likely to occur.

直接导致了我之前的疑问：难道这些地形不是一直都这样的么……
谢谢linli_xiaoai的回复，我有点明白arguement的论证思路了……

lingli_xiaoaiUID: 172506

2# lingli_xiaoai
Thank you for your response~~

确实我的思维非常局限……就这篇6分范文提出的可能情形来说，是完全成立的，

但是，当他论证这些可能情形的时候，却用了如下的例子：




直接导致了 ...
Forkiki 发表于 2010-7-15 21:06

why you think the argument your provided here is 6 score example actually provided by ets....
i thought ets only provide 6 sample assay discussing
the topic below:

"Hospital statistics regarding people who go to the emergency room after roller skating accidents indicate
the need for more protective equipment. Within this group of people, 75 percent of those who had
accidents in streets or parking lots were not wearing any protective clothing (helmets, knee pads, etc.) or
any light-reflecting material (clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads, etc.). Clearly, these statistics
indicate that by investing in high-quality protective gear and reflective equipment, roller skaters will greatly
reduce their risk of being severely injured in an accident."

can you tell me on what document your saw this sample assay..?

moreover, the example you mentioned above may be problematic, just as what you pointed out.
But it may stand, if the author mentioned something like "since it has more curves, so it is espeically accident-prone during the winter..and last 6 month is winter and early spring...so accident rate increased more than ......." things like that, would be much better.

ForkikiUID: 2851928

额，这是我在网上找到的一个题为“ETS的argument36篇范文以及评分”的doc文件中看到的，有详细的1~6分范文以及其给分理由……
如果需要的话，我可以发上来让大家鉴定……

确实作者没有再进一步地论述如前辈您所述的观点，因此才会让我产生这个疑问……

最后，十分佩服前辈的逻辑论证，把一个问题打得很开，又把原文存在的问题给巧妙地扭转了过来……希望能赐教些经验，为刚刚才开始写AW，好像思维有很大的局限……

lingli_xiaoaiUID: 172506

额，这是我在网上找到的一个题为“ETS的argument36篇范文以及评分”的doc文件中看到的，有详细的1~6分范文以及其给分理由……
如果需要的话，我可以发上来让大家鉴定……

确实作者没有再进一步地论述如前辈您所述 ...
Forkiki 发表于 2010-7-15 22:43

please follow the link www.ets.org/Media/Tests/GRE/pdf/awintro.pdf

this is only document I considered as officially provided by ETS and scored, because you can download it directly from ETS website.
read through the sample argument on there which score as 6, it was a really good and strong assay without obvious weak-points...
I remember the doc you mentioned above, but I will be careful when  using it unless it is available on the www.gre.org, I will not consider it as official even it says so.

ForkikiUID: 2851928

是的，intro上的这篇6分文章确实写得十分出色，也没有任何有疑问的地方；
看来资料的选取还是要慎重饿……