【Flyer杀G】小组-7.14 Argument147, by Sean

柏拉图的世界UID: 2581296

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 433
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/7/15 16:51:44

In this argument, the author predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase after declination after two years. What the author's reasoning relies on is a survey showing people's favorite on games with vivid graphics, and the fact that Whirlwind has introduced several such games. However, scrutiny on such an argument reveals that several logic flaws undermine the author's prediction.

What is most critical is the survey which is presented too much lacking sufficient details indeed. The author fails to tell us how many people took this survey, and what proportion of the total population in the areas Whirlwind video games usually aim at the respondents are. It remains unknown as well whether these people are randomly selected and whether they are capable representatives covering different age levels, professions and so forth. It is possible that such a survey was merely conducted in a secondary school, or in several corporations. Any scenario, if true, would weaken the survey's statistical reliability.

Even if the survey has covered enough people of sufficient stratums randomly, hardly can the results lend supports to the success of Whirlwind's new games. As mentioned above, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, yet it is just not precise enough classification of cyber games. The games of lifelike graphics may include role play games, right-time strategy games, shooting games, and so forth. Whether all these very different game style meet these responders' flavor is difficult to determine. And detailed information about the games Whirlwind introduced is missed, making it uncertain whether these games will sell. Moreover, as the author points out, these vivid games require most up-to-date computers, in view of these consituency of the new games are people 10 to 25 years old who usually have little incomes or savings, the perspective costumers would probably fail to afford high expense due to up-to-date computers.

In addition, bearing mind that Whirland video games have declined over the past two years, the essential factors resulting in declination are not discussed in this argument at all. Unless the true reasons for declination are dredged up, one cannot be convinced that the efforts made on introducing new games would gain agreeable growth of sales. Probably during the past two years, there are severe disorders in the management of distribution, sales and supply in Whirlwind, and these are major culprits. If the corporation overlooks them, increased sales would be still far away.

To conclude, the survey might not be statistically reliable to support the author's reasoning. Even though it is well conducted, the result it presented may not justify the future success of the new games. And lacking discussion about the reason for the previous declination makes the prediction even more dubious. In order to ameliorate the argument, the author could provide more details about the survey, or simply conduct another much more instructive survey, and rule out other possible reason causing the company’s two year declination.