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TOPIC: ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company."In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

Based on some company performance, supposing the ineptitude of Pat Salvo and competent Rosa to profit their companies, the manager recommends the board of Fancy Toy Company （FTC） to replace Rose of Salvo for their president. However, the argument is flawed in several aspects, and each of them will be analyzed in detail in the following.

To begin with, the author assumes that Salvo can't meet the requirements of president in FTC. Yet there is no adequate evidence to support such assumption. The dropping profits of FAC in the last three quarters may have other explanations. Such as, the toy markets have is slump in the period, and maybe Fancy's fall is relative smaller than the average fall profits. Besides, the ineptitude of the ex-president may have left a dismal legacy for her to deal with, say the destruction of its reputation, and Pat may have already made her best to save the company from a more serious fall. Again, Salvo may adopt some reform measures aimed at changing the awful work situation of FAC, such as to promote the efficient of workers and cut overstaffed offices. As known to all, the reform’s consequence may take a while to see. After all, the achievement of three quarters can't fairly reflect the actual faculties of a leader.

Again, the author fails to consider other possible causes of the profits increasing of Starlight Jewelry. It's possible that the whole Jewelry market has enjoyed prosperous those years, during which any not too incompetent leader will not miss the chance to profit. What's more, perhaps Starlight owns a prudent and effective aboard who actually control the operating of the company, or the Rosa has a sensible assistant or consultants, form whom she can get many constructive advices which turn out to benefit the company.

Even accepting that Rosa is more competent in her field than Salvo in her, the argument is still questionable. The author again fails to recognize the difference between toy companies and jewelry companies. Rosa works well in jewelry field doesn't necessarily mean she can do well equally in other field, because different work natures require different management practice. It is probable Rosa is expert in jewelry business but just has no idea in toy management. In addition, the salary of Rosa will take twice that pat has been receiving, there is no evidence showing that we have the necessary to do this. Besides, are there more suit candidates than Rosa who is more familiar with toy company management.

Everything taken into consideration, the argument's conclusion is poorly reasoned. Were the author to provide further evidence ruling out the alternative explanations for Rosa will be definitely competent in the president of Fancy Toy Company, the recommendation would be more compelling. As it stands, I deem it would be better to give Pat another period to prove herself or to seek suitable one for our company.