argument38 【ForOneReason小组4】7.22 dycccc

dyccccUID: 2804635

38The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

The editor came to a conclusion that daily use of Ichtaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can prevent colds and lower absenteeism in West Meria merely based on some dubious evidence and reasoning. To substantiate his assertion, the editor point out that a study report on the relationship between fish consumption and colds preventing in East Meria. Then he draw a hasty conclusion that we can prevent colds and lower the absenteeism by taking Ichtaid. However, in my opinion, this argument cannot testify his result, and it suffers 4 logical flaws.
At first, the editor failed to build a causal relationship between fish consumption and the low incidence of colds. The fact that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year lend no credence that the incidence of colds rate is low in East Meria is low. A lot people tend to take some pills themselves or sleep when catching cold. Even assuming that people in East Meria did catch cold rarely , there are many other possible explanation for it. Better climate, a complete public health program and so on can all attribute to this low rate. Without ruling out all these possibilities, the editor ‘s argument is unwarranted.
Besides, even if the residents in East Meria did benefit from the fish consumption, did absenteeism reduce greatly? In fact, the editor didn’t give any evidence showing that the absenteeism lowered in East Meria. Therefore, without accurate data on absenteeism in East Meria, it’s unfair to jump to the editor’s conclusion.
And supposing that fish consumption did help in reducing the absenteeism in East Meria, the editor failed to take the difference between East Meria and West Meria. Perhaps, West Meria’s residents used to eat a lot fish, and more fish doesn’t help in preventing colds or reducing absenteeism. Or perhaps, the residents in West Meria don’t enjoy fish at all. So the argument can’t convince me its conclusion without eliminating these possibilities.
Last but not the least, there is no evidence that Ichithaid is the effective substance that can prevent colds. The fact that Ichitaid is derived from fish oil is not sufficient to prove that it’s the very effective matter. Furthermore, the editor didn’t take the cost into consideration. It’s entirely possible that Ichithaid is so expensive that not everyone can in West Meria can afford it.
In all, the editor failed to substantiate his conclusion. To make this argument more convincing, more direct information on that fish consumption can prevent colds and lower absenteeism should be given in West Maria, and we should conduct a research on that Ichithaid is just the effective substance ,besides, cost issue must be taken into account.

huohuo0101UID: 2760840

The editor came to a conclusion that daily use of Ichtaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can prevent colds and lower absenteeism in West Meria merely based on some dubious evidence and reasoning. To substantiate his assertion, the editor point out that a study report on the relationship between fish consumption and colds preventing in East Meria. Then he draw a hasty conclusion that we can prevent colds and lower the absenteeism by taking Ichtaid. However, in my opinion, this argument cannot testify his result, and it suffers 4 logical flaws.
At first, the editor failed to build a causal relationship between fish consumption and the low incidence of colds. The fact that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year lend no credence that the incidence of colds rate is low in East Meria is low. A lot people tend to take some pills themselves or sleep when catching cold. Even assuming that people in East Meria did catch cold rarely , there are many other possible explanation for it. Better climate, a complete public health program and so on can all attribute to this low rate. Without ruling out all these possibilities, the editor ‘s argument is unwarranted.
Besides, even if the residents in East Meria did benefit from the fish consumption, did absenteeism reduce greatly? In fact, the editor didn’t give any evidence showing that the absenteeism lowered in East Meria. Therefore, without accurate data on absenteeism in East Meria, it’s unfair to jump to the editor’s conclusion.
And supposing that fish consumption did help in reducing the absenteeism in East Meria, the editor failed to take the difference into consideration between East Meria and West Meria. Perhaps, West Meria’s residents used to eat a lot fish, and more fish doesn’t help in preventing colds or reducing absenteeism. Or perhaps, the residents in West Meria don’t enjoy fish at all.（我认为阐述地区差异这个地方有问题，逻辑应该是东区人吃鱼有用，而西区人没用，因为例如西区和东区的鱼不同） So the argument can’t convince me of its conclusion without eliminating these possibilities.
Last but not the least, there is no evidence that Ichithaid is the effective substance that can prevent colds. The fact that Ichitaid is derived from fish oil is not sufficient to prove that it’s the very effective matter. Furthermore, the editor didn’t take the cost into consideration. It’s entirely possible that Ichithaid is so expensive that not everyone can in West Meria can afford it.(我没想到)
In all, the editor failed to substantiate his conclusion. To make this argument more convincing, more direct information on that fish consumption can prevent colds and lower absenteeism should be given in West Maria, and we should conduct a research on that Ichithaid is just the effective substance ,besides, cost issue must be taken into account.
语言流畅，我认为还有两个错误：西区的旷工率很低，不用提高；fish consumption 可能是由于当地从事鱼类加工业
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