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[a习作temp] Argument53 第一次求拍，先行谢过~ [复制链接]

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发表于 2010-7-25 20:27:42 |显示全部楼层

本帖最后由 ccmuzi 于 2010-7-25 21:29 编辑

虽然字数不少，还是担心是各段论证显得不够充分，不知道各位大侠看了后评判？请一定不吝赐教~

ARGUMENT 53
Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

（515 words）

Before concluding a causal relationship between the increased levels of melatonin before birth and the shyness during infancy and the later life, the evidence in the argument should be scrutiny closely. The author comes to his or her conclusion by citing a study of 25 infants, who were assumed to be relatively shy. However, the researchers of this study failed to rule out some factors that might affect the result of the study.

In the first place, for a study to be convincing, it should be conducted with a large enough quantity of sample. In the above study, however, the researchers failed to do this. Is a sample of 25 a large enough one? Considering tens of millions of newborns per year, I doubt whether this small sample is representative of the overall situation. Therefore, it is entirely possible that the claimed similarity of these 25 infants might just because of a coincidence.

In the second place, the assumption that melatonin is the main cause of mild distress is based on no valid evidence. The author provides no information about the function of melatonin. It is possible that melatinon actually has nothing to do with the mild distress while other elements might cause mild distress. Common sense informs me that a control group is necessary for the researchers to rule out this possibility. However, in this argument, the author has mentioned no information about a control group. Without a control group, the result of this study is further doubtable.

In the third place, the author mentioned a follow-up study conducted this year showing that half of these children-now teenagers-identified themselves as shy. Even assuming that these teenagers correctly indentify themselves, this mere fact does not lend a strong support to demonstrate the author's claim that their shyness is an effect of melatinon. We all know the fact that an individual's environment during their growth, including family, friends, teachers, has a significant influence to one's character. Thus, without showing valid evidence that the shyness shown by those teenagers is due to the melatinon regardless of their growth environment, the author's claim cannot convince me.

Finally, what if we consider the terminology in the argument? Let's take "mild distress" as a example. Does "mild distress" have the same meaning as "shyness"? The author has neglected to clarify this point. Without this clarification, it is possible that "mild distress" is just a kind of physical reaction, differing from "shyness", which is a psychological one. Another question is that: Is "mild distress" a common appearance shown by all infants or a special appearance shown by just a small group? The author provides no evidence showing that infants with lower levels of melatonin do not appear as mild distress. If the "mild distress" is shown by all the infants, this entire study will be of no value at all.

In conclusion, in this argument, the author cited an insufficient study to support the conclusion. To bolster the argument, they author should cite a study of large enough sample and rule out any factors which might affect the result of this study.