argument 25 留恋挥拍。。这篇我不是很有把握。。多指教~

费话先生UID: 2788924

TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
WORDS: 574
TIME: 00:29:08
DATE: 2010-7-31 20:06:02


Merely based on a series of unfound assumptions and vague phenomena, the author assumes that building a golf course and resort hotel successfully improve the economy of Ocean View. Therefore, the author further suggests that Hopewell should follow the experience of Ocean View, which he thinks is the best way to improve Hopewell's economy and generate additional tax revenues. However, the suggestion is quite poor-advised without any close scrutiny, which may bring about a heavy financial loss.

The first problem involved in the argument is the author unfairly ascribes the more flourishing economy to the building of a golf course and resort hotel. However, no evidence is provided to demonstrate the cause and effect relationship, leaving the high possibility that the building of golf course and resort hotel is just a response to the more flourishing economy. For example, Ocean View has 30 percent more revenue than before so have more financial funds which make the building of golf course and resort hotel affordable. Or more tourists are attracted to stay at Ocean View and hence bring out a stronger demand for recreational infrastructures. In that matter, the town decided to build golf course and resort hotel to better meet the needs of tourists.

Even if the building of a golf course and resort hotel is not the response of more flourishing economy, whether it is at least an important if not the sole factor in stimulating economy is doubtful. Admittedly, a golf course and resort hotel can attract a few residents or tourists which can increase the revenue of the town. However, the author fails to provide any statistic about how much profits the golf course and resort hotel earn or what many clients they attracts. It is highly possible that the profits of the golf course and resort hotel are just a small proportion of the increase of the revenue; and their clients may also be negligible as compared to the total number of tourists. Also, the new businesses may be high-tech companies which are irrelevant to the tourism or sports, which makes the assumption that the increase of tourists, revenue and companies are due to a golf course and resort hotel groundless. In fact, the author fails to consider other factors which may contributes to the improvement of economy like more beautiful scenery and building some universities which bring out an influx of experts. Thus, unless the author provide statistic to prove the golf course and resort hotel play an important role to improve economy, I cannot accept the suggestion that the economy can be significantly improved just by building a golf course and resort hotel.

Finally, even assumed that the measure that building a golf course and resort hotel are quite conducive to the economy of Ocean View, the author's suggestion relies on what amounts to an improper analogy. Perhaps, the town of Hopewell is rich of resources like oil and copper. If it is true, the exploration of resources may be a more suitable style of development than improving the tourism. The author had better evaluate the advantages of Hopewell rather than recklessly following the successful experience of other town. To fully make good use of the town's own advantages may be the best way to improve economy.

Overall, the suggestion is far from satisfactorily reliable. To bolster it, the author should provide more evidence to demonstrate that it is the building of a golf course and resort hotel that contributes to the 30 percent increase of revenues and the increase of new companies and tourists. Also, the author should prove that Ocean View is similar with Hopewell and hence the measure can work the same effectively in Hopewell.

lingli_xiaoaiUID: 172506

第一段有点问题，论据事实来看，是hotel建立以后的2年，tax increase这样的话，你要批判的点是 这不是因果关系，只是同时发生。Ocean View has 30 percent more revenue than before so have more financial funds which make the building of golf course and resort hotel affordable. 这个点不是很好，hotel的运转不会用到tax revenue。但是建立，用的也不是。

第二段看上去没什么大问题。

第三段，false analogy 的alternative explanation用得不是很恰当。一个地方有矿山和石油，根据地理为止来看，好像ms不可能同在？一个山沟里面，一个戈壁上。不过我地理不是很好。你这个例子举得有点非常规。这个逻辑错误，错误类比＋过去不等于现在。两个都可以批，建立hotel都是2年前了，说不定现在golf都不流行了。或者已经有很多了，建了也是白建。