argument25 考试逼近，欢迎拍文！！

Ocean~SprayUID: 2847693

TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
WORDS: 460
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-7-31 20:15:13

The memo concludes that the best way to improve Hopewell's economy and bring about additional tax revenues is to build a golf course as well as a resort hotel, following those in Ocean View. To bolster this conclusion, the mayor mentions that during the past two years, due to the new municipal golf course and resort hotel, the Ocean View has gained various advantages-the tourism there has increased, new businesses have opened, and the tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. However, this argument has several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.

To begin with, the argument relies on a false assumption that the correlation between the increased tourism, the opened new businesses, and the new golf course, resort hotel is the cause-and-effect relationship, which is not the case. It is entirely possible that the economic and tourist trends during
the last two years was a boom, so it was suitable for the tourism and businesses to develop; or perhaps that it is because the new policy and social environment that lead to the prosperity of tourism and business and the increase of tax revenues. Without eliminating alternative explanations, the conclusion is incredible.

The second mistake involves the false analogy between the Ocean View and Hopewell. There are so many factors influencing the economy and tax that since we are not informed of the all-round circumstance in the two towns, no valid conclusion can be made. Such factors may include that the public policies about economic growth; the tourist resource in towns; and the amount of tourists coming to visit. Without providing further data, it is too harsh to jump to the conclusion that Hopewell will benefit the same as Ocean View through the constructions.

Finally, even though during the past two years the tourism and business in Ocean View developed due to the golf course and resort hotel, the mayor fails to support that in the coming years the same construction will bring economy development and tax revenues as well. Maybe the trends of tour is ephemeral and that after certain duration it may fall; of maybe the golf course and resort hotel in Ocean View have fulfilled the needs of tourists that new buildings are useless. Lacking such evidence, we cannot confirm the Hopewell will develop its economy and increase tax revenues as Ocean View.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To make it sounder, the mayor has to provide evidence that Ocean View has benefited from the golf and resort hotel; also he needs to support that the same golf course and resort hotel will make Hopewell' economy boom as well. To better assess the argument, we further need to know that the trend will continue that the economy and tax will increase.