弟第一次完整的argument，求砖，越大越好~

iamdfsUID: 2777960

超时了...毕竟没练过~还有就是最后一段时抄范文的（结尾段还没看过呢）


TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 600
TIME: 00:42:53
DATE: 2010/7/31 22:26:39

In this memo, the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center concludes that they can increase their profits by expanding the variety of vegetable seeds since the citizens in the town are likely to growing vegetables by themselves. In order to justify this conclusion the owner of GTGC incites a survey showing growing dissatisfaction with the vegetables in the supermarket, and point out that the gardening magazine has sold out at one local newsstand three month in a row. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.


First of all, the owner of GTGC justify her assumption by inciting a national survey, however, this survey can't indicate the real condition in the town. Yet the owner also supposes that the only place to purchase vegetables is supermarket. It is quite possible that there are several catastrophes happened in the country whereas this suburban town is fortunate enough that it didn't suffer from it. So the quality in this town maybe is still perfect. Or perhaps, the vegetables in supermarket are not as good as those sold in groceries. What's more, this survey was carried out last month and the quality of vegetables can change greatly in this month. Without eliminating this possibility, the owner cannot rely on the national survey to conclude that this town's residents would be interested in buying vegetable seeds from GT.



Secondly, the owner also assume the fact that good selling condition of the gardening magazine Great Gardens in a news stand can imply that more residents in this town are willing to grow vegetables by themselves. Yet the owner doesn't provide any evidence to support this assumption. This entirely possible that there are only a few copy of this magazine in this news stand, so it can be sold out easily. Or perhaps, this news stand is located in a popular place in which there are more people, therefore, more magazines can be sold out. Whereas, the selling condition in the other news stands are not good. Given these possible scenarios, the fact that one news stand's good sell condition has nothing to do with the trends of growing vegetable by themselves.


Thirdly, even if the assumptions are true, the owner, the argument assumes a causal relationship where only a correlation has been indicated. In other word, dissatisfaction about the vegetables and good selling condition of the gardening magazine have nothing to do with the trend of growing vegetable by them. There is several way to solve this problem they can buy vegetables from grocery or farm and they can drive to another town to buy vegetables. So, unless the author can demonstrate that there is no other way but growing vegetables by themselves, the author's concern about these issues is unfounded.

Last but not least, expanding the variety of vegetables seeds maybe can't increase the profits of GTGC. Since the quality and quantity are the most important elements in make profits. What's more, expanding the variety of vegetable seeds can increase the cost of preserving them which can decrease the profits, even loss so money.


In conclusion, the owner's argument is unpersuasive. To strengthen it the owner must provide more convincing evidence that consumers in this town are actually becoming less satisfied with supermarket vegetables, and that as a result they are buying fewer such vegetables. To better evaluate the argument we would need more information about alternative sources of vegetables for local consumer-for example, the number and quality of produce stands. We would also need to know why the newsstands copies of the gardening magazine sold out.