Argument162 离5分还有多少距离啊？？

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT162 - A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.
WORDS: 494
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/7/29 16:40:45
In this sort of material, the author makes a conclusion that North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression. To support this conclusion, the author cites examples that Asians eat soy per day and less of them suffer such diseases. At first glance, the conclusion maybe somehow reasonable, while close scrutiny reveals that it contains several unconvincing assumption and is therefore unpersuasive.
To begin with, the author mistakenly believes that Asians eat 20grams of soy per day on average are the reason why less of them have such diseases. It is quite probable that the soy have no such effect. Maybe it was other foods they eat avoid the disease. Perhaps they also eat rice everyday and the nutritive substance in the rice can prevent the chronic fatigue and chronic depression everyday. However, because a study shows that the soy has disease-preventing property, it misleads the author that the soy can avoid the disease. Actually, the study doesn’t clarify what kind of disease the soy can prevent and it may have the possibility that soy cannot prevent the chronic fatigue and chronic depression. If so, the author cannot assert that the soy can help avoid the diseases.
Even though the soy can help Asians avoid the chronic fatigue and chronic depression. The author cannot affirm that it would have the same effects on the North Americans. The author ignores the fact that the constitution of the people in two countries is quite different. It is possible that Asians can easily absorb the nutrition in soy while to the North Americans the substance which can prevent the disease in soy can not be absorbed by those people, then it is useless for north Americans to eat soy everyday. Without ruling out such possibility, we cannot believe that the author's conclusion is reliable.
In addition, because the environment in North America and Asia are quite different from each other, then we may also assume that it was the environment causes such disease. The weather condition in North America may not very good and it is always changeable which affects the people’s mood. While in Asia people can always enjoy sunny days and the air is also cleaner than other areas. So it may lead to the phenomenon that people in North America are easier to have such diseases than the people in Asia. There also exists a possibility that the working pace in north America are much faster than in Asia. Then the people in the former area may easier to suffer disease for they are easier to be nervous and be unhappy. Without ruling out such assumptions, we cannot make a conclusion that these evidences are persuasive enough to support the conclusion made by the author.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility. To better support the author's statement, more information should be added such as we should prove that the soy are the only things Asia people eat everyday and the North Americans can also absorb the nutrition in the soy. They should also analyze other factors which may affect the disease and prove that they are not the reason for such diseases. Then we may believe that the author’s conclusion is reliable.