argument 35,请大家来修改~~

iampuchaoUID: 2882054

TOPIC: ARGUMENT35 - The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
WORDS: 470
TIME: 00:35:00+10
DATE: 2010-8-16 21:00:11

In this argument, the author recommends that using salicylates as flavor additives for food can steady decline the number of the headaches. To bolster his conclusion, the author relies on the fact that food processing companies add salicylates to food as preservative, and at the same time, the average number of headaches have reported declined based on a study. Though it seems convincing superficially, careful consideration reveals that the evidence lends little support to his recommendation and the argument contains several logical flaws.
To begin with, the author lacks evidence to prove the twenty-year study is significant in statistics and the survey is comprehensive enough. Any recommendation aimed at addressing a problem must be based on thorough survey to gather sufficient data so as to narrow down and locate the actual causes. However, we cannot get any such kind of information including the age of the patient and the sample size. What's more, it is entirely possible in this twenty year, many people felt tired of this study, and the quit. Unless the author can demonstrate the study is persuasive enough to explain its conclusion, the author's recommendations based on this study is groundless.
Even assuming the study does not have any problem, the author's correlation between the decline reported and the salicylates usage does not certainly indicates a causal relationship. While a close correlation is
a strong evidence to the causal relationship, but as a matter of fact, it is not sufficient. There are many other possibilities can cause the similar phenomenon such as a larger investment from the government to improve the medical care system, and so forth. Without ruling all this possibilities and find out the actual cause of this phenomenon, the correlation can not convince me.
Last but not the least , the author commits a fallacy of false analogy in assuming salicylate used as flavor additives will also help to decline the number of headaches. The problem meant to be solved is that it lacks evidence to prove these two usage of salicylates are similar enough to have the same effects. Any linkage must be based on systematically consideration to make a comparison of their difference, but the author fails. Perhaps, the function of salicylates in food preservation is not quite different from that in flavor additives. Many other possibilities, which the author overlooks, will block the author generating a convincible recommendation.
In sum, the argument relies on such insignificant survey and doubtful assumption which render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation, the author should provide evidence to prove the study is of persuasion and the correlation between two phenomenon are reasonable. To better evaluate the author’s recommendation, it would be better to have a thorough survey on whether salicylates added into flavor additives will help to decrease the rate of headache.