第一周-Argu提纲-1106柚子作文小组-H-宇倩

psystephanieUID: 2787871

Argu1
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products. “Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
1.居民對健康關注度高與盈利沒有因果關係，可能有其他因素導致盈利；即使盈利與其有因果關係，過去盈利了不代表現在和未來也盈利
2.商店賣出運動鞋和衣服到達高點，club爆滿並不代表隊健康關注度高，也不代表居民會購買NW的產品；
3.就算它們代表現在隊健康關注高，也不能保證以後對健康關注高。
4.就算健康與盈利因果關係，並且資料證實P地對健康關注力高，也不代表在別的地方盈利，在P也能盈利，還要考慮別的因素，如競爭，飲食習慣等；同樣，也不代表現在對健康關注，以後也會
5.沒有證據支持作者的預見；即使作者的預見是正確的，即在校學生參加項目，也不一定就要購買該商店的產品，無因果關係
6.作者沒有提供建立這樣一個商店的花費，因此我們不知道是否profitable
7.作者沒有提供人們購買NW而不買其他產品的理由

Argu2
The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres. “Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

1.B地產平均價格翻了三番與其yards及color沒有因果聯繫，可能是別的原因，比如剛好炒房熱
2.就算有因果聯繫，七年前可行，現在不一定可行，在這些年裏面，有許多因素會發生變動
3.就算有因果聯繫，B可行，D不一定可行，因為B和D可能在很多方面存在不同，比如氣候地理位置，因此就算D也進行裝飾，不一定能提高價格；如果想提高房地產價格可以通過別的方法，比如增加舒適性等
4.作者忽略了模仿該做法帶來的可能不好後果，如沒有創造性
5.可行性不高，比如D的施工人員水平不夠建造不起來。或者人們不願意購買這樣的房子，因為小孩子可能因此不認得回家的路

Argu3
The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis. “In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."
1.數量下降有可能是因為大型事務所減少了，同時更多的小事務所增加進了，並不一定是畢業生傾向於選擇小型事務所
2.在小型事務所就業與工作滿足感沒有因果關係，而可能是因為沒有能力，進不去大事務所，或者甚至是因為他們本身就是生活滿意度高的人，喜歡競爭不激烈的小事務所
3.調查所選取的樣本不具有代表性，頂尖的法學院畢業生一般家庭條件較好，不care薪水；而且，大一新生不代表畢業生。
4.人們的觀念與實際行為並不一定相同，即使在思想上這麼認為，但在實際選擇工作的時候，還是會被別的因素比如經濟壓力影響
5.作者將物質獎勵等同於滿足感這是不對的
6.即使提供更多福利和激勵，減少時間，也不一定能讓他們的滿意度提高。應該想一想有沒有別的辦法。