【9.29】Argument 7提纲

Luise8891UID: 2906459

7The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

Luise8891UID: 2906459

1）        The arguer fails to convince us that Frank Braun will not protect the environment ,if he is elected.理由：并没有说所有成员都不关心环境，之所以会出现严重的环境问题只能说明大部分人支持经济发展，而不是环境保护，很有可能，他就是那个少数里的一员。还有即使他以前不支持环境保护，但看到现在严峻的环境问题，很有可能会改变他的Policy.
2)the arguer fails to convince us that If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."no solid evidence has been given.
3）the arguer fails to analyze the real thing that the residents care ,--protecting the environment or developing the ecomomy.理由：有可能如果政府关掉大量的工厂的话，大部分人会失业。在失业和环境保护面前，人们很可能会选择谁能保住他们饭碗的人。

刘文奇UID: 2850560

7. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
在下一次市长选举中，Clearview的市民应投Good Earth Coalition成员Ann Green的票，而不是Clearview市委成员Frank Braun，因为当前的市委成员没有保护我们的环境。举例来说，去年Clearview的工厂数量翻了一番，空气污染水平增加了，而且当地医院因呼吸道疾病就诊的数量增加了25％。如果我们选举Ann Green，Clearview的环境问题肯定将被解决。
论断：在这封信中，共有四个假设：①空气污染水平增加了，导致呼吸道疾病的人数增加。②工厂数量增加导致空气污染水平增加了③Ann Green比Frank Braun更有环境保护意识。④Ann Green有解决环境问题的能力。但这四个假设都没有充足的证据。
段二：呼吸道疾病的人数增加并不能说明空气污染水平增加了。患呼吸道疾病人数增加，可能是因为当年气候变化快，导致患呼吸道的病人增加。也有可能是因为当年爆发了流感所致。即使这个假设成立，在这封信中，还是不能说明空气污染严重是由于工厂数量的增加。可能是由于附近地区空气污染加重，也可能是由于汽车尾气所致。
段三：即使上述两个假设成立，还需要证明另外两个假设，我们才能得出信中那个假设。第一个假设为Ann Green比Frank Braun更有环境保护意识。在信中没有提供Ann Green的任何信息。也许他的环保意识比Frank Braun更差，那Clearview地区的环境问题讲话更严重了，该地区的选民也会后悔自己的选择。即使这个假设成立，Ann Green也不一定有能力治理已经出现的环境问题。
段四：总结。