酒香作文小组的第二次作业BY侃侃argument209

周张侃UID: 2668079

Argu: 209
In this argument, the Human Resources Manager at Fancy Toy Company recommends to the board of directors that due to a considerable fall in profits over the last three quarters, the recent president should resign and in return for a generous severance package. In addition, the president of Starlight Jewelry whose profits increases dramatically over the past several years should be hired eveen though at twice the salary of the current president. This argument is unconvincing for several reasons.

In the first place, the H. R. Manager too hastily to assump that Pat is responsible for Fancy's declining profits but gives no evidence to support the assumption. It is quit possible that the company is constructed in recent year, and the profits during this time continue to decline due to the lack of experience, but the recent three quarters' profits are the least decline. In this case, replacing a president must more detrimental than helpful. Otherwise, the cause of profits' fall are countless and out of president's reach. Such as the cost of materials or labor have increased staggering, the domestic currency's exchange rate fluctuates due to the economical crisis, or an natural disaster that caused extraordinary expense for the company. What's more, perhaps the profits may have declined even further without the leadership demonstrated by the current president. Without taking into account such possibility, the manager simply cannot reasonably claim that Pat should be to blame for the fall profits.

Secondly, even assuming that the Pat is responsible to the profits fall over last three quarters. There is no evidence presented that the decline will last in the long run. It is entirely possible that Pat has recognized and corrected her past mistakes and a turnaround has begun in the profitability of the company. As a result, to change the president at this time may be harmful. Furthermore, perhaps the generous severance package might outweigh all the benefits that gained by replacing her. When think about twice. The manager's conclusion is untenable.

Thirdly, the recommendation also assumes that it is Rose who is responsible to the Starlight's increasing profits and hence to replace the Pat. However, the evidence is limited to affirm to this assumption. It is entirely possible that the materials and the labor of the jewelry market have declined dramatically, regardless of the abilities of the Rose. Or perhaps all jewelry businesses have prospered recently. Furthermore, there is no evidence that a jewelry president is suit to toy company whose market target is fundamental different from the jewelry industry, and Starlight president has not presented valid economy policy to stimulate the crisis of toy company. Hence, the support idea that manager presented is unconvincing and untenable.

In sum, this argument is based on mere speculation with absolutely no cause and effect evidence presented to show that current president is in any way responsible for the toy company's declining profits. Similarly no adequate evidence to assure Starlight president can lead the toy company and make profits. This argument should be rejected due to the lack of supporting evidence that making such a change would increase the company's overall profits.